Naturally the British DFS Company has said fuck you to our American Holiday and rolled out a set of games that will yield them zero entertainment and zero profit. Stupid FanDuel.
Six games this afternoon on DK, which is broken up into a 3 and 4 game slate on FanDuel and then we have the same main slates later tonight.
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WEATHER
Wind blowing OUT to Left Center in Wrigley Field around 16 MPH.
Wind blowing OUT in St. Louis around 17 MPH
Wind blowing OUT in Philadelphia to Right Center
Warm, Warm, Warm.
Colorado has a very low dewpoint today of just 48. It is going to feel incredibly comfortable out there and I can see this game playing under expectations.
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FRAMBER VALDEZ
Valdez has always had just one major issue and that is walks, but he has been better this year at just 8% walk rate and pitches very well on the road historically. He is a heavy ground ball pitcher who has handled these Athletics well outside of a couple HR to Chad Pinder — which I do not see happening today.
Look for a 7 inning upside game from Framber Valdez and consider him your easy SP1.
LOGAN WEBB
Webb’s price will make him an interesting decision today. The Phillies had a short little bus ride down from New York to Philly after their night game last night and have to turn around for a day game today while the Giants had the early flight out of Cincinnati and should be rearing to jack a million balls into the seats today before they go and enjoy a nice Lobster dinner or something.
So bottom line here is I am backing the Giants and there’s a chance that Webb if he can fix his early innings issues comes out and pitches 6-7 strong against a tired Phillies lineup. His price is making it such that he really can do that without being perfect and still be a viable SP2
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Also consider on DK:
Pablo Lopez
Nobody will touch Pablo for 10k+ as the highest priced pitcher in a day game out in Coors, but he’s been dominant this year and when you have someone in great form that is contrarian it’s always worth consideration.
FanDuel Very Early:
Start drinking early and go Dylan Bundy.
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GOOD WEATHER BOOST
Wrigleyville – Tellez, McTuchen, Contreras, Wisdom, Happ
Lots of parks have good weather today, the most notable one is in Wrigley Field which also has two rookie pitchers making their debut in the first game of a double header.
Natural instinct for many might be to take the Brewers side, but that offense isn’t exceptional right now and I would not overlook the Cubs side.
xSLG Matchup BOOST
Giants – Yazstremski, Pederson, La Stella
Phillies SP Kyle Gibson has the second highest xSLG projection allowed today vs the Giants hitters. Assuming we get a LH heavy lineup from San Francisco would only add to the upside as Gibson has not been effective at striking out lefties this year and the weather should also benefit a big game from the Giants.
PARK SHIFT BOOST
Marlins – Aguilar, Garcia, Sanchez
They will enjoy the boost out to Colorado today and are also facing a rookie making his debut. The profile on Ryan Feltner is very similar to that of Brady Singer only with a little more velocity up in the zone and less swinging strike upside on breaking pitches. Missing up in the zone is a bad recipe against Jesus Aguilar.
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CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
- Austin Nola
FIRST BASE
- Rowdy Tellez … Comedy of the day is Rowdy Tellez at 3600 in windy and warm Wrigley vs a rookie SP. Just take the free money.
- Jesus Aguilar
SECOND BASE
- Tommy La Stella – Can be used on 3B as well on DK which is a bit thinner.
- Jorge Polanco
- Nolan Gorman
THIRD BASE
- Patrick Wisdom
- Manny Machado
SHORTSTOP
- Luis Urias
- Tommy Edman
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- MIke Yastrzemski
- Kyle Schwarber
- Ian Happ
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Andrew McCutchen
- Joc Pederson
- Wil Myers
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- Mike Yastzemski – OF – Giants – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Nolan Gorman – 2B – Cardinals
- Rowdy Tellez – 1B – Brewers
- Patrick Wisdom – 3B – Cubs
- Willson Contreras – C – Cubs
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CORE BUILD
The Giants, Brewers/Cubs and Padres are the top offenses that I would look for heavy exposure from today. It’s a good slate to spread out your players though unless you go full Wrigley with a game stack in G1 of their double-header which could turn very ugly.
Brandon Webb and Pablo Lopez to me form a nice contrarian SP build on DraftKings today but Framber Valdez is highly unlikely to struggle so he is our CORE SP1 on Main lineups.
SP1 – Framber Valdez
1B – Rowdy Tellez
3B – Patrick Wisdom
OF – Mike Yaszemski
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OWNERSHIP & LEVERAGE
The best “I got this guy at low ownership” today will be Lopez and/or Webb on the pitching front.
The best “I got this team low owned” today is going to be San Diego
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BETTING PLAYS
Brewers/Cubs OVER 10.5
Marlins/Rockies UNDER 10.5
Giants + Padres + Astros ML Parlay
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