PGA Championship
Major #2!! Southern Hills and the PGA Championship!
Other than the Will Zalatoris call last week, it wasn’t too bad. I didn’t get any 6/6 lineups through, but it was still a decent week. We are now back to where the pricing will allow you to get what looks like a loaded lineup. Problem is, in Majors, rarely does it work out on Sunday – or Friday for that matter – the way it looked like it should on Thursday.
Southern Hills Country Club is the location. Originally, this wasn’t the 2022 venue but it was moved for, let’s just say, reasons that should have absolutely nothing to do with golf. And, since I’ve already been banned from Twitter for saying what I think, that’s all I have to say about that so Renner doesn’t kick me off Daily Ambush.
General Description: IT’S LONG! Par 70 – 7,550 yards. Zoysia fairways and Bentgrass greens. The greens are on the small side and should be quick. Precise approach shots – like Augusta – are going to be important.
The field is outstanding – as it should be for a Major! However, from a DFS perspective, I have to find a way to control myself when entering lineups because, even though I want to play everyone, I can’t unless I want to dip into my 401(k) for a loan.
NOTE: There is a chance of high winds in the forecast and while I don’t normally base my picks on tee-times, you may want to check to see when the winds are predicted. The tee-times are AM-PM or PM-AM as it relates to Thursday and Friday.
Key factors this week:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
- Shots Gained Putting
- Shots Gained Approach
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
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$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye. Since this is a Major, Course History is limited since this isn’t a regular Tour stop!
You will likely be VERY tempted to try to play as many horses as you can. Scheffler, Rahm, Thomas and McIlroy will be very popular. Getting three guys in the $9K plus range would scare the shit out of me in a normal week. However, it is very doable this week! Especially if you can bring yourself to skip the five-figure salaries altogether – or at least limit it to the guy you think can win!
So, what say you? Oh, wait, what say “me” I guess since I’m the one expected to give “expert” advice:
Xander Schauffele ($9,300) – I’ll admit it. He hasn’t done near what I was anticipating at the beginning of the year. Missed the cut at the Masters! Are you $*^*%& kidding me! Even on Friday of last week, I was like “son of a bitch, what’s wrong?” Even par on Thursday? Really? You’re elite! Oh yeah, but then its 67-65-61! Yes, sixty, freaking one! Is he back? I have no idea, but when he is $2,100 cheaper than the top guy and 9 guys total are priced higher… I’M IN!! Starting my lineup with Xander!
Justin Thomas ($10,700) – This is likely one of the popular picks. He played and played well last week even at this price. I expected it here as well. He’s not Brooks Koepka-esque, but he always seems to show up and show out at majors.
Dew Sweepers:
Collin Morikawa ($10,400) – This kid’s game plays EVERYWHERE! I was shocked that his only missed cut this season was The Players, but that course has a tendency to beat down whichever elite player it picks that year and, this year, it felt like slapping around Collin. I think he’s on page one of the leaderboard come Sunday.
Patrick Cantlay ($9,100) – I think he and Xander are similar types of players. Maybe that’s why they played together in the team event. Maybe that’s why they both missed the cut at The Players this year. And, maybe, just maybe, that’s why they are both in contention at Southern Hills on Sunday.
Cameron Smith ($9,700) – Normally, I’ll stop at 2 Dew Sweepers. However, this week, I just can’t get away from wanting to play Cam. He did miss the cut at the RBC, but in The Players and The Maters, he’s 1st and T3 respectively. Plus, generous driving areas and small precision-requiring greens fit this ball striker.
NOTE: Insert your favorite guy over $9,000 here! This week will not be “make or break” based on who you start your lineup with. Full disclosure though, I really like balanced lineups in weeks like this because pricing is so soft.
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$7,500 to $8,900
Will Zalatoris ($8,900) – Damn right! I’m going back to the well! Or, should I say “Will”? Look out Jimmy Kimmel – I know that’s funnier than some of his stuff! Look, it’s golf and stuff like last week happens. He missed the cut – by ONE people! At this price, I’m back! He was T8 in the PGA last year and T4 at the Masters so Majors don’t scare this kid. In fact, I think he’s more focused.
Corey Conners ($8,000) – Few people are outplaying this elite ball-striker! In a balanced lineup, this price is perfect!
Dew Sweepers:
Shane Lowry ($8,700) – OK, this guy has been playing out of his mind. In his last seven events he has not missed a cut. He’s also sprinkled in 6 Top 15s and 3 Top 5s in that run. Is it just me or does anyone else see where a balanced lineup could be money?
Keegan Bradley ($7,500) – T2-T4-T8! How’s that for current form? He’s made 8 of the last 10 cuts at the PGA and is a former winner, albeit a while ago. But, Keegan is playing as well or better now than when was younger. At $7,500 I don’t think you’ll be disappointed on the weekend.
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$7,000 to $7,400
This is always the price range that seems to be the “teaser” range. You say, “wait, he’s only that much?” Then you realize, oh yeah, the field is loaded and someone has to be priced here. Stars-and-scrubs is a real possibility in Majors.
Billy Horschel ($7,400) –He has quietly been playing some of the best golf on the PGA Tour and is now ranked in the Top 15 in the World Golf Ranking. I think he will be higher owned than most in this tier (unless the casual players flock to Rose, Reed & Garcia)!
Alexander Noren ($7,000) – I’ve been riding him for a few weeks. He’s been playing strong. In his last seven events, he has four Top 20s and one Top 5. Plus, he’s made the last three cuts at the PGA.
Dew Sweepers:
Justin Rose ($7,200) – this price for him just freaks me out! So much so that I don’t have him in one lineup. Still, he plays Majors differently and, although he’s struggling a little making cut this year, I think he makes it at Southern Hills.
Harold Varner III ($7,000) – Damn! Another guy that I don’t have in a lineup but really like the way he is playing. Top 5 in his last two events and Harold is just a guy that I want to route for.
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Under $7,000
This is a week where there is slightly more relevance in this group – slightly. I do like a few guys in this group that will allow you to play a top-heavy lineup. The more I look at my lineups – and I see Fox in them – the more I realize why maybe I don’t have Rose or HV3 in any of them.
Ryan Fox ($6,300) – Hasn’t played the PGA since 2019 and missed the cut there. However, his last four events on the World Tour have been T2-T8-T9-T15! Can’t argue with that line and it’s moving in the right direction.
Sam Horsfield ($6,700) – Win-T21-T18 in last three WT Events
Jhonattan Vegas ($6,900) – He’s been playing too well to be this price in any other week but this one. Take advantage if you need it!
LONGSHOT:
Anirban Lahiri ($6,500) – A blast from the past that seems to have found something! His last six events are T6-T15-T66-T13-2-T74!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Collin Morikawa
Rory McIlroy
Xander Schauffele
(Leaves you $6,766 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Will Zalatoris
Patrick Cantlay
Xander Schauffele
(Leaves you $7,566 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 50% Key Stats:
(V) = Value at $7,900 or less
- Patrick Cantlay
- Justin Thomas
- Shane Lowry
- Jon Rahm
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Cameron Smith
- Viktor Hovland
- Daniel Berger
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Jordan Spieth
- Keegan Bradley (V)
- Collin Morikawa
- Harold Varner III (V)
- Max Homa
- Sam Burns
- Corey Conners
- Sam Horsfield
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!