Charles Schwab Challenge
Major #2 is in the books! Not the winner anyone would have expected at 8:00 a.m. on Sunday, but we’ve also seen JT do that before. I had a really good lineup going in the $200 SE, but Keegan Bradley never really got it going and Ryan Fox decided to go pin-hunting on Sunday and shot +7. I’m not blaming him. When you’re that far back, you want to make up ground. I’m pretty sure that lineup would have made five figures if either of those two had gotten hot. Still, we did have JT and Will Z in the write-up. Hopefully you all did well.
So, we are finally at a location where we have some course history. Now, the picks have been pretty good (patting myself on the back) without it the last several weeks, but that information is something I really like to have when deciding between two guys – assuming they aren’t playing like complete crap at the time.
Colonial Country Club will not be near the beast that Southern Hills was, nor will the pressure be as intense. We sometimes get a fall-off in talent the week after a Major simply because it is so draining on the players. Playing well in a Major and then playing the next week is a good thing and playing poorly isn’t necessarily a bad thing for the week after. However, although I’m not doubting JT’s talent at all – other than some politicians, I don’t think anyone is that stupid – it’s always difficult to come out with the focus you need in the week following a Major win. Nothing to do with the player. It has a lot to do with media requests and the general celebration related to the win. I know JT isn’t John Daly, but he still has a right to be a little distracted the week after a win like that. Personal Note: I’m probably fading him this week at $11K!
General Description: Par 70 at 7,200 yards. Smallish bentgrass greens that are typically pretty slick. Fairways are tighter so the bomb-and-gauge approach is not nearly as desirable for the players. Historically, putting well at Colonial – or simply being a good putter all the time – leads to a good finish. How obvious of a statement is that? Yeah, you make putts, you can win. But, one-putts when you can’t get home in regulation is a different story.
With that said, key factors this week:
- Driving Accuracy
- Bogey Avoidance
- Shots Gained Putting
- Shots Gained Approach
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
I think I’ve said it before. I really hate picking guys for you in this pricing tier! Remember, unless I specifically say it, I don’t hate any guys in this price range. I just am simply pointing out to you who I’m going to play – and maybe tell you why.
- Jordan Spieth ($10,400) – This is me going back to my CH play. Course History or “Course Horse”! Call it whatever you want. Jordan faded a little on Saturday, but so did a lot of guys. He shot 69 on Friday and Sunday but the other two rounds held him back. He’s playing very well and when I say “Course Horse”, I mean 2nd-T10-T8-T32-T2-Win-T2-T14-T7 in the last nine years! Starting at least one lineup with Jordan!
- Abraham Ancer ($9,300) – I really want to go back to Will Zalatoris ($10,100) and I still might. However, at $800 less and not having the mental anguish of losing in a playoff, I’ll save the $800 and take a guy that is used to playing in Texas and has finished Top 15 in the last two years at Colonial.
Dew Sweepers:
- Max Homa ($9,400) – As I said before, I think “West Coast Homa” has figured out that U.S. golf is bigger than California. He doesn’t have the greatest CH here, but he also has never entered this tournament playing as well as he is right now. T13 at the PGA and a win at Wells Fargo, he needs to be considered. And, I think his ownership will be lower than a lot of guys around him.
- Collin Morikawa ($10,700) – For me, he’s been a little disappointing as of late. I really didn’t expect him to finish outside of the Top 20 last week. He has two Top 10s this season, but the rest has really just been…meh! He’s played here twice and has two Top 15s (including a 2nd in 2020). I look for him to rebound and play well. With his recent mediocre play, he may be low owned – especially since he’s the third highest-priced guy and $300 more than Jordan. But, you may want to spend $300 more to get a lower ownership since I expect Jordan’s ownership to be high!
- Daniel Berger ($9,000) – I’m throwing this name into the ring because he played so horrifically bad last week that I think he will be ignored. He’s won here! He’s played well this season prior to the PGA implosion last week. I’m thinking ownership may be less than 5%.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Tommy Fleetwood ($8,800) – I have always liked Tommy as a player. When he burst onto the scene several years ago, he was the new young flavor of the month. The fact that he hasn’t consistently won, I think, has made many people forget how good he is – or, at least, can be. He is always capable of shooting a sub-65 round at any time! He has three Top 15s in his last five events and this course should fit him.
- Billy Horschel ($8,500) – He didn’t perform to the level I thought he would last week, but he made the cut and didn’t really cost us too much at his price. He is $1,100 more expensive this week, but he should be! He’s playing great this year and is putting extremely well. This, along with his ability to hit fairways, should fill you with confidence in the pick.
Dew Sweepers:
- Jason Kokrak ($8,300) – Defending champ at this price? Yes indeed! And it’s not simply because he is a defending champ. He is playing well this season.
- Brian Harman ($7,800) – The mirror of Jordan Spieth? Righty-Lefty! Get it? Again, I will not apologize for my Dad Jokes! Much like Jordan, in his last eight years here – T8-T23-T31-T14-T7-T25-T10-T30! At $7,800 compared to $10,400, I think you’ll be happy with the result!
- BONUS: Justin Rose ($7,700) – I’m pairing him and Harman in a lineup or two!
$7,000 to $7,400
The range that we love to hate! We love it when “that guy is that cheap?” is the question we ask and hate it when we ask “can I really play him?” At least the names are more familiar than the sub-$7K range we try to avoid.
- C. T. Pan ($7,500) –Five straight cuts! I think he fits well at Colonial.
- Maverick McNealy ($7,500) – He struggled over the weekend at the PGA! But, really, who didn’t other than a couple of guys named JT and Webb Simpson (65-72). Zalatoris held his own but, bottom line, I’m not holding the weekend against McNealy. He’s made 15 of 16 cuts and using the Byron Nelson & Texas Open as comparisons, plays well in Texas.
Dew Sweepers:
- Patrick Reed ($7,400) – I’m not sure what’s going on with this guy! He’s making cuts but not really finishing where you expect him to finish. However, at this price, I think the ceiling is much better than a lot of others in this price range – although I’m not as confident in his floor as I used to be.
- Cameron Tringale ($7,500) – He’s made his last 6 cuts (which includes the team event) – both for the year and in his appearances at Colonial. A made cut in this range is a win!
Under $7,000
There are several guys in this price range that have played well at Colonial, but their current form is, well, let’s say – not so good? For example, Charley Hoffman ($6,500) has made 9/10 cuts at Colonial, but hasn’t made a cut in the last three months this year. That sucks!
- Lucas Glover ($6,700) – T8 and T23 in his last two appearances at Colonial. Mediocre this year. At this price, I’ll use him if I need to. I’m just trying not to “need” anyone in this range.
- Rory Sabbatini ($6,700) – Nice Course History and decent finishes in a limited number of events this season.
- Matthias Schwab ($6,600) – No Course History but finished T8 at the Texas Open.
LONGSHOT:
- Brandt Snedeker ($6,200) – Let’s face it! “Snedeker, Snedeker, Snedeker is playing like shit, shit, shit!” His made one cut in his last six events and that was a T18 at, you guessed it, the Valero Texas Open. He’s not long – not needed here! He has good course history – always nice when you’re in a slump! And, HE CAN FREAKING PUTT – normally! This could be the proper planetary alignment for a solid finish!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Jordan Spieth
Abraham Ancer
Tommy Fleetwood
(Leaves you $7,166 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Max Homa
Tommy Fleetwood
Webb Simpson
(Leaves you $7,700 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 40% Key Stats/10% Course History:
(V) = Value at $7,900 or less
- Justin Thomas
- Viktor Hovland
- Jordan Spieth
- Billy Horschel
- Daniel Berger
- Collin Morikawa
- Sungjae Im
- Mito Pereira
- Justin Rose (V)
- Brian Harman (V)
- Talor Gooch
- Max Homa
- Harold Varner III (V)
- Sam Burns
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Kevin Na
- Jason Kokrak
- Scottie Scheffler
- Will Zalatoris
- Tom Hoge
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!