Wells Fargo Championship

Last week was pretty good!  I looked back and every player recommended above $7,000 made the cut.  We also had the winner and a low-priced 2nd place finish in the writeup with Rahmbo and Brandon Wu.  Last weeks field was a homonym – weak! Look it up!  I can’t explain my dad-joke sense of humor!

We are back at a course in Maryland this week that isn’t unfamiliar to the PGA Tour.  It used to host the Kemper Open – which I attended many times in late 80s / early 90s.  YES! – I am that old!  More recently, for the millennials reading this, the Quicken Loans National was played here in 2018 and 2019.  The course has changed a little since I was there, especially around the turn.  I think it was the 9th (or 10th) hole that when Greg Norman was asked how the hole could be improved, he responded with “blow it up and start over”!  Guess what?  They kind of did!

Oh yeah, and while it’s a little better, the field is still pretty weak. This tournament is usually at Quail Hollow which attracts more top-tier players.  But, the President’s Cup is delaying that return.

Last week, I did say that Jon Rahm was the clear favorite even though he was the most expensive.  I’m not saying that about Rory this week.  Can he win? Absolutely!  Will he win? I’m saying no.  I’ll give him a Top 15 at best.

Key factors this week:

• Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
• Shots Gained Putting
• Shots Gained Approach

The fairways here are on the narrow side, but not daunting by any stretch.  The rough isn’t usually too punishing here and I doubt they’ve grown it up.  The biggest issues that I remember on this course were the meandering streams on the back side and several blind tee shots and second shots that could have obstacles in front of them if you spray it a little.

Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position.  It’s all about price and current form in my opinion.  The format will be:

• Each price range, I will give you my Top 2

• “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
• At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
• Two (or Three) “Cores”
• Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats

NOTE:  All pricing is based on DraftKings

Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):

• $9,000 and Above
• $7,500 to $8,900
• $7,000 to $7,400
• Under $7,000

$9,000 and Above

As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:

1. Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well.  Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
2. Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky.  If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.  THERE IS NOT MUCH THIS WEEK!

• Tony Finau ($10,600) – Since I’m not going to ride the McIlroy Express, I will take a shot on Tony Finau if I can fit him into my lineup and still feel good about it.  Tony progressively got better last week and jumped over a lot of players on Sunday with a closing 63.  
• Tyrrell Hatton ($9,900) – One thing I’ve learned about Tyrrell Hatton is that, once you forget about him, he gives you a reason to remember.  This is EXACTLY the type of tournament where he will say, “hey, I’m good too.  Now keep up”!

Dew Sweepers:

• Corey Conners ($10,100) – few are playing better. Three Top 15s in his last four events.
• Matthew Fitzpatrick ($10,000) – He’s missed two cuts in his last seven events, but everything else has been T18 or better. With a $100 difference, you can play him with or instead of Hatton.
• Russell Henley ($9,300) – missed the cut at RBC but made every cut prior to that. I wouldn’t hesitate to play him or Keegan Bradley ($9,600) in this range but like the fact that Henley is a little cheaper.

$7,500 to $8,900

• Max Homa ($8,600) – It appears that “West Coast Homa” has figured out that his game transfers nationwide.  He has not missed a cut in quite some time and, as I said with Hatton, this is the exactly the type of player that could win here.

• Matt Kuchar ($7,900) – I have always liked Matt Kuchar. But, recently, he was making me wonder if he could still hang with these guys.  Clearly, with a T3-T2-T16 in his last three events, he’s found something.  Much like Linus’ blanket in Charlie Brown cartoons, putting Matt Kuchar in a lineup knowing he’s playing well is very comforting.  Plus, $7,900 is a great price.

Dew Sweepers:

• Sepp Straka ($7,600) – THIS IS TOO CHEAP!!
• Brandon Wu ($7,500) – I’m really hoping he now starts to live up to expectations.  And a T2 is a good confidence builder when playing the next week.

$7,000 to $7,400

There are some very recognizable names in this tier.  Lahiri, Molinari, Fowler, and Knox.  Problem is, there is a reason they are priced here.  

• Adam Long ($7,400) – probably playing as consistently as anyone in this group.  Two Top 15s in his las three with a missed cut as his only blemish – and that was the team event and I don’t count that.
• Anirban Lahiri ($7,400) – He disappeared from leader boards and weekends for a while.  However, in his last five events, he has three Top 15s and has finished as high as 2nd.  He’s made five straight cuts.

Dew Sweepers:

• Dylan Frittelli ($7,300) – Six straight cuts with two Top 20s.
• Matthias Schwab ($7,400) – 6 of his last 7 cuts made on the PGA Tour. Three Top 10s mixed in as well.  Low-profile tournaments are usually where guys like this show up.

Under $7,000

Just a couple of guys here:

• Martin Laird ($6,900) – He’s inconsistent but has made several cuts.
• Greyson Sigg ($6,800) – Five straight cuts and 9 of last 10.
• Bill Haas ($6,600) – He used to be a great low-priced play.  Recently, he’s playing better – better, not great – and making cuts.

LONGSHOT:

• None this week

No more fades!  I’m going with the positive.  Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:

CORE #1 (top heavy):

Corey Connors

Russell Henley

Max Homa

(Leaves you $7,133 per golfer)

CORE #2 (balanced):

Tyrrell Hatton

Matt Kuchar

Sepp Straka

(Leaves you $8,233 per golfer)

FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:

TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 50% Key Stats:

(V) = Value at $7,500 or less

• Corey Conners
• Matthew Fitzpatrick
• Seamus Power
• Rory McIlroy
• Matt Kuchar
• Russell Henley
• Tyrrell Hatton
• Marc Leishman
• Brian Harman
• Keegan Bradley
• Troy Merritt (V)
• Max Homa
• Cameron Young
• Joel Dahmen
• Paul Casey
• Tony Finau
• Sergio Garcia
• Keith Mitchell
• Si Woo Kim
• Sepp Straka

Not a lot of “value” this week if you rely only on price.  However, I think Homa, Kuchar, Straka, and Merritt are good values in addition to what I pointed out in the last two tiers.

Ask questions on Discord if you have them.  Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!

GOOD LUCK!!