THE MEMORIAL
So, this week we go to Jack’s Place! This is a pretty loaded field and my time constraints this week are going to limit my eloquent writing to “just the facts, ma’am”!
Muirfield Village is a course that can wear you out! In 2020, if memory serves me, they played the Workday event the week prior to The Memorial and the play of the course couldn’t have been more different from one week to the next. The setup for The Memorial was much tougher which says a lot about the quality of the course and the ability to set the playability at different levels. The course has some homages Augusta that I’m sure were intentional by the designer – considering his successes at Augusta.
General Description: Par 72 at 7,500 yards. Wide fairways (like Augusta) and punishing rough (not typically like Augusta) will come into play. The greens are bentgrass and typically very fast. Jack likes a challenge and so do the players.
With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order):
- Bogey Avoidance
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
- Shots Gained Putting
- Shots Gained Approach
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
This is a field very similar to a Major. It’s Jack’s tournament and many of the players view this as a second-tier major and love the personal satisfaction of saying you won “Jack’s Tournament”!11
- Jordan Spieth ($9,700) – A tie for 7th last week was acceptable, but not what I was shooting for. Still, we can’t question Jordan’s recent play or his history here. In nine attempts, he has five Top 20s with two of those being Top 10s. His recent play? T7-T34-2-Win.
- Will Zalatoris ($9,400) – I didn’t go back to him last week which paid off. I really wanted to, but given the playoff loss, I just couldn’t. He has missed two of his last three cuts, but everything mixed in with that is EXCEPTIONAL! (2-T4-T6-T5). He’s only played here once and didn’t have much luck, but I feel that a lot of people will be flocking to Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) and Jon Rahm ($11,000) and his ownership will be down. The two of them have won the last three Memorials, but I think I’m going to own them in only one lineup if I own them at all. Save the $1300 to $1600 and play Will! That’s where I’ll be!
Dew Sweepers:
- Xander Schauffele ($10,200) – I love Xander, but he’s been a little bit of a pain in my ass lately when I recommend him. Not in a bad way by missing cuts. Just that I keep saying he’s going to win a Major and he plays middle of the pack all week. In his last three events here, he’s T11-T13-T4 (consistently better every year). Maybe, he’ll win the “second-tier” Major first?
- Shane Lowry ($9,000) – I think he will go unnoticed in this tier this week. He’s done nothing this year but play well – 5 Top 15s in seven events. But, relative to the names in this tier, the casual player will probably blow right by him
$7,500 to $8,900
- Max Homa ($8,700) – This may be my new “man crush”. I’ve found myself recommending him in just about every event he plays. While some may think my choices are purely emotional, they’re not! West Coast Homa has become a very consistent and quality player that I don’t’ think the pricing algos have caught up with yet!
- Joaquin Niemann ($8,300) – He’s been a good player for a few years now. However, this year, at least in my mind, he’s become a great player! Even if my mind only cares about DFS, you cannot argue with his performances in the 2021-22 season. Other than a withdrawal, he hasn’t missed a cut since February.
Dew Sweepers:
- Patrick Reed ($7,900) – Ignore everything about Reed’s play in 2022 other than his last 2 events!! It appears that the old Patrick Reed may be coming back. If I’m right, you won’t get him sub-$8K for too long – if ever again after this week. He’s also a guy that typically likes tough courses and his short game pales in comparison to, well, practically nobody (maybe Tiger)!
- Billy Horschel ($7,900) – Yes, I recommended his last week and he missed the cut. In golf, you sometimes need a short memory. Other than an MDF at The Players, that was his first miss playing on Saturday and Sunday in any event he’s entered this year. He shot 72-71 last week. Yeah, that’s +3 but it’s not like he had a card full of bogeys on an easy course.
- BONUS: Mito Pereira ($8,000) – Normally, “newbies” at Muirfield don’t fair too well because it’s an acquired taste. However, I avoided this guy due to the meltdown at the PGA on Sunday. Well, I was wrong! To come off of that and tie for 7th on a tough course a week later? Worthy of consideration!
- BONUS 2: Davis Riley ($8,600) – Another “newbie”! If I asked you how he’s been playing, you couldn’t tell me without looking it up. FOUR Top 10s in his LAST FIVE! Not as cheap as I’d like and for $100 more, I’d go Homa, but he is worth consideration.
$7,000 to $7,400
The range that we love to hate! We love it when “that guy is that cheap?” is the question we ask and hate it when we ask “can I really play him?” At least the names are more familiar than the sub-$7K range we try to avoid.
- Rickie Fowler ($7,200) –I think I just threw up in my mouth a little! I haven’t been able to recommend Rickie since COVID started. He’s played much better in his last three events and has four Top 15s at Muirfield in his last five appearances. Now, he’s missed the cut a bunch too, but this is a limited tier. So, give me some mouth wash and plug him in at this price if you need to.
- Lucas Herbert ($7,000) – Finished tied for 18th in his only appearance here and has played decently in the last two events which included the PGA (T13). If he finishes Top 20 again at this price, you will be ahead of the field because I think ownership will be sub-5%.
Dew Sweepers:
- C. T. Pan ($7,200) – He just makes cuts!
- Stewart Cink ($7,000) – He stays out of trouble! At this price, that’s all you need.
Under $7,000
And now we enter Dr. Strange territory! In the Multiverse of Madness, we know some of these guys will make the cut, but who? And, to quote Dr. Who, “The universe is big. It’s vast and complicated and ridiculous. And sometimes, very rarely, impossible things happen and we call them miracles.” Sounds like getting 6/6 in a PGA DFS lineup to me!
- Brandon Steele ($6,600) – Low price and high cut capacity! That seems to be the mantra down here!
- Kevin Streelman ($6,700) – Nice Course History but hasn’t been playing spectacularly. Risky, but definitely a salary saver with weekend potential.
- Lucas Glover ($6,500) – To 40 in his last two events and has made 8 of 9 cuts at Muirfield.
LONGSHOT:
- Pat Perez ($6,600) – As a personality, I’ve always liked Pat Perez’s “tell it like it is approach” to life. He has decent course history here and looked pretty good last weekend – yes, he was on the TV coverage with Spieth.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Xander Schauffele
Jordan Spieth
Shane Lowry
(Leaves you $7,033 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Will Zalatoris
Shane Lowry
Max Homa
(Leaves you $7,633 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 40% Key Stats/10% Course History:
(V) = Value at $7,900 or less
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Shane Lowry
- Patrick Cantlay
- Viktor Hovland
- Jon Rahm
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Max Homa
- Cameron Smith
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Jordan Spieth
- Mito Pereira
- Seamus Power
- Sungjae Im
- Joaquin Neimann
- Collin Morikawa
- Corey Conners
- Matt Kuchar (V)
- Daniel Berger
- Adam Scott (V)
Not a ton of value when you look solely at price, but there is some that I noted above.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!