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DAILY-AMBUSH · June 23, 2022

The Dongers Club – June 23rd

Outside of Paul Blackburn I do not think I could have wrote a much better article last night and yet it was still a tough slate to balance things out simply due to the way ownership played out.

This is why I really don’t care much about who is owned in MLB DFS because if you sat there and said “well I gotta be different from the chalk”, you got your ass kicked.  If you played the best plays, you might have had a chance depending upon how well you balanced things out or which contests you played.

As I have said before, there are many ways to use the information here to profit in life if you do more than just DFS with prop bets and sports betting and if those mother effing Twins had not choked their game it would have another big betting night for me.

In DFS we need to be lucky sometimes with the way the chips fall, and this is why it’s important to not just play randomly when you see someone win big and think they can give you a lottery ticket.  Grind it out and you’ll do fine.  It’s late June for crying out loud and we’ve been doing this all season and will continue to do it, all season.

This is the only article for today because it’s really the only legit slate today.  There are three games tonight which we can cover in Discord later.

For some reason, it is FanDuel who included the Mariners and Athletics and not DraftKings, which is very odd.

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WEATHER

All games play, we have warm temps and some wind blowing out in Target Field with 88 degree temps there and high Dew Point.  Also high dew point in Cincinnati.

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ROBBIE RAY (FD)

After going on and on about not caring about ownership in DFS I start off by saying this – Expect Ray to be very chalky on FanDuel (but he is not available for use on DraftKings).  This should be a good pitching battle between Ray and Montas with Ray coming off two of his better starts of the season and now facing the lowly Athletics.

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On DraftKings Today …

You have Clayton Kershaw, Kyle Wright and Hunter Greene who are at the top of the salary pool of which Kershaw to me is still on the fade list although that Reds lineup is absolute garbage today so he should get further and pitch 6 innings and shouldn’t kill you.  Greene vs the Dodgers is tempting but smells like a sucker play and Wright is a definite fade.

So this leaves us taking some long shot options.

KYLE FREELAND

If someone can pass this along to Freeland then I think we can help him have a dominant start today.  Do not throw a sinker to Soler, throw sliders to Cooper and just walk Jesus Aguilar and throw fastballs to Avisail Garcia.  Then sit back and enjoy a 7 inning start with 6 strikeouts.  Do the right thing Kyle!

JUSTIN STEELE

Only KeBryan Hayes is someone that I think Steele could struggle with.  The Pirates will whiff more at LHP and Steele has shown at times he can get some good swings and misses.  Big park which should play less offensively today as less humidity is in the area.

ALEX WOOD

Nobody has a higher DCPA strikeout upside today than Alex Wood.  The problem is that he’s playing in near 100 degree Atlanta and Austin Riley is going to be back in the line-up today for the Braves but if you wanted a leverage/longshot option it is Wood.

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Let’s walk through each of the games today, shall we?

TIER 1 GAMES

GUARDIANS/TWINS

HEY VERN!

GIF ernest p worrell - animated GIF on GIFER

CLE:  Ramirez, Reyes, Clement

MIN:  Kepler, Arraez, Buton

We are back in Target Field once again as we love this park this time of year when they have the extremely warm weather.  Jose Ramirez is a little banged up, but in a day game I don’t see him leaving this Target Field trip without a home run.  Franmil Reyes is another Guardian who should be able to pull a little Fresh Prince and say Yo Devin, Smeltz-ya-later.

The most famous Ernie’s I can think of include:  Ernie Banks, Bert’s Lover, and of course Ernest P. Worrell.  Hey Vern.  Check this shit out, we’re adding Ernie Clement to that list today.

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CARDINALS/BREWERS

More Goldy.  More Nolan(s).   More Yelich.   More Adames.

More this.  More all of this.

Pin on Star Wars/Kylo Ren

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TIER 2 GAMES

DODGERS/REDS

Trea Turner, Max Muncy, Will Smith

The Reds lineup is horrible.  If you want to be -that guy- who rolls 5 Reds thinking they blow up Kershaw on a warm home game then just go right ahead and bet the Don’t pass line asshole.

Max Muncy, Will Smith, and all the Trea Turner for the Dodgers.   By not paying up for SP on DraftKings you can get Trea + Will Smitih.

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GIANTS/BRAVES

Joc Pederson, Evan Longoria 

A decent pitching matchup in a very warm stadium.  This is like going to COSTCO on a Saturday but they have an exhibit going on outside where they are marketing a new line of grills and so you just have to go there despite the crowds to try things out.

But we’re going to be quick, we won’t stay long and we’ll just swipe in and have a little Joc Pederson and a little …. wait, where is Austin Riley again???  Well screw this, we are out of here.

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TIER 3 GAMES (Ew)

CUBS/PIRATES

Do not.  I repeat.  Do not touch this game.

ROCKIES/MARLINS

But Why Though GIFs - Get the best GIF on GIPHY

MARINERS/ATHLETICS (FD)

Top 10 GIF to Video Converters [REVIEWED] | Wyzowl

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Today’s BOOST+ Players

Not a very comforting feeling for me to see a few Marlins Boosted vs Kyle Freeland, but I am sticking with my analysis on Freeland, that said (Fortes, Soler, Garcia) are the ones boosted.  Lets see if Freeland read the Dongers Club this morning or if he was out drinking last night with the rest of his team.

Other Boosted:   Nolan Arenado, Degio Castillo, Kyle Farmer (LOL), Tommy Edman, Adam Duvall, Juan Yepez, Patrick Wisdom

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CATCHER

  1. Will Smith
  2. Nick Fortes … The model hath speaketh….
  3. Yan Gomes

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FIRST BASE

  1. Paul Goldschmidt
  2. Matt Olson
  3. Juan Yepez (OF Eligible)

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SECOND BASE

  1. Nolan Gorman
  2. Luis Arraez
  3. Matt Reynolds

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THIRD BASE

Deepest position on the board today

  1. Nolan Arenado
  2. Jose Ramirez
  3. Evan Longoria

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SHORTSTOP

  1. Thomas Edman
  2. Trea Turner
  3. Willy Adames

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OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE

  1. Joc Pederson … How come we don’t talk about how Joc Pederson looks like Fred Durst?
  2. Chris Taylor
  3. Christian Yelich
  4. Max Kepler

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OUTFIELD – Tier 2

  1. Byron Buxton
  2. Trevor Larnach
  3. Cody Bellinger

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OUTFIELD – Value

  1. Ernie Clement
  2. Franmil Reyes – HR off the pen
  3. Tyrone Taylor

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The Dongers Club

  1. Joc Pederson – OF – Giants – Chairman of The Dongers Club
  2. Ernie Clement – OF – Guardians
  3. Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
  4. Trea Turner – SS – Dodgers
  5. Yan Gomes – C – Cubs
  6. Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
  7. Evan Longoria – 3B – Giants
  8. Owen Miller – 2B – Guardians
  9. BONUS ……………… Chris Taylor – OF – Dodgers

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CORE PLAYS

Joc Pederson top one off, Christian Yelich second favorite

Chris Taylor best value from Dodgers, otherwise force Turner if you can

Guardians/Twins

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BETTING PLAYS

Rockies/Marlins UNDER 8.5

SF Giants ML

Dodgers/Reds OVER 9

Cubs/Pirates UNDER 8.5

Twins ML

Cardinals/Brewers OVER 1.5 runs in the first inning.

Mariners/Athletics under 283 fans in attendance.

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