We are rolling into the weekend with a 14 game Friday Main slate today, which excludes just one game and no it’s not the Cubs at home in Wrigley (it’s Mets at Marlins, you can sleep easy knowing you missed out on this one even though the Mets are gonna whoop the Marlins).
[spacer height=”20px”]
WEATHER
No rain issues and lots of heat.
Roof status in Arizona is TBD
[spacer height=”20px”]
So when I first glanced at the names going tonight I said wow that’s a ton of good names out there. Verlander, Severino, Nola, Gore, Manoah, Kopech, Anderson, Urias. Plenty of guys we are generally considering.
And then I looked closer.
And I kept looking…
And …
Yeah, I don’t like the majority of them.
[spacer height=”20px”]
MERRILL KELLY
Beyond fears of the roof being open I cannot find anything wrong with Kelly tonight. To the point where I am fine with justifying him as an SP1 today as well. Detroit has a couple young kids in Greene and Torkelson who we think at some point could get going together but neither has shown anything yet to warrant that and Grossman + Miggy both look horrible vs Kelly in this match-up.
Plus if you think Javy Baez is hot because he tore up the Red Sox and think he’ll fly across the country into Arizona and wasn’t up all night partying with the locals out there in Phoenix on his way to 0-4 with 3 strikeouts then I don’t know what to tell you. All signs a go for Kelly so long as he can get past Victor Reyes tonight.
AARON NOLA
Nola in a road day game is trouble, but Nola in PETCO at night is just fine. Okay class, what have I said over and over this season about the Padres?? Anyone? Yes, you in the back with the beer in your hand.
Yes, that is correct, they don’t hit the ball down in the zone. And what do we have here with Aaron Nola? Someone who lives down in the zone.
MACKENZIE GORE
So I think we have established who Gore is going to struggle with in his career and it would be the Colorado Rockies of all teams. They saw him his last two starts and managed to get to the rookie SP – which we kind of expected would happen at some point. But now Gore can resume his quest for the NL Rookie of the Year award. Philly is an offense that I believe he can get 7 strike-outs against and this is one of the few games tonight I would look at for pitching on both sides.
[spacer height=”20px”]
Other guys I don’t mind…
Dane Dunning (TEX) – Bounce back at home vs the Nationals
Jeffrey Springs (TB) – I think he will pitch well but not long enough to justify his prices, but he is good at home.
Michael Kopech (CWS) – If he can stay on the damn field then okay. The White Sox desperately need a long outing from a SP and nobody should assume Kopech does that but there’s potential for him to just be blowing it past Baltimore all night long.
[spacer height=”20px”]
I do not want to touch
Alex Cobb – Danger Will Robinson. Danger…
Alek Manoah – I think he pitches smarter to the good lefties in this Milwaukee lineup, which means nibbling, which means a 5 inning start.
[spacer height=”20px”]
RED SOX
Duran, Verdugo, Devers, Martinez
On Monday I looked at Boston (and the team below) and said they’re going to go off and we should bet/DFS play them from now until July 4th. The Red Sox going into Cleveland was something I knew was coming up and this is a park which they should start to go off.
I have avoided the Guardians bullpen but their starting pitching is about to take a back seat here. Load up on LiC night with Duran, Verdugo and Devers. Plus the way teams are pitching JD Martinez away I wouldn’t be shocked to see him poke one out into RF for a double tonight.
MARINERS
Winker, Rodriguez, Crawford
Good ole Angels home games. They should once again give up a ton of runs and Lorenzen was good back in early April and has sucked since. Look for the Seattle to drop an 8 or 9 run spot on them tonight. Very sneaky stack which I am optimistic about.
WHITE SOX
Vaughn, Pollock, Anderson, Abreu
Austin Voth continues his attempt to try to pitch in the big leagues with the Orioles in what should turn into a Bullpen game tonight. The Orioles pen has been black magic at home but back to bad on the road and everyone on the White Sox grades out extremely well against the available arms out of the pen. Chicago has to win with their offense right now and if Luis Robert is back in the lineup I expect them to rake. But it’s Vaughn/Pollock who make this machine go right now.
BRAVES
I have Atlanta being super-amped up tonight, more so than Freeman returning to L.A. The Braves continue to just win against LH starting pitching.
[spacer height=”20px”]
These games will go over and you’ll be like, wait, how are they scoring?
Athletics vs Royals
Just bet the over and move on.
Reds vs Giants
I cannot find a way to actually convince anyone to play the Reds tonight, not even myself, when it comes to DFS. So we will bet the Reds team total over and move on from there. The Giants bullpen is not as elite as it was a year ago and Votto will hit in San Francisco like he always does.
[spacer height=”20px”]
Today’s BOOST+ Players
Andrew Vuahgn, Luis Robert, AJ Pollock, Jake Burger, Seby Zavala, Paul Goldschmidt, Juan Yepez, Jarren Duran, Trevor Larnach
[spacer height=”20px”]
CATCHER
- Seby Zavala
- Martin Maldanado
- Omar Narvaez
- Carson Kelly
[spacer height=”20px”]
FIRST BASE
Everything aligns for Freeman tonight, but he is the fade today and lock tomorrow/Sunday. He has slowly been turning it around and was one of the key hitters that got hurt early by the new baseballs beacuse he is an oppo field guy, but he has been hot late and obviously returns to Atlanta tonight. But we’ll wait for tomorrow to play him.
- Jose Abreu
- Joey Votto
- Rowdy Tellez
- Christian Walker
[spacer height=”20px”]
SECOND BASE
- Whit Merrifield
- Marcus Semien
- Orlando Arcia
[spacer height=”20px”]
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Nolan Arenado
- Jake Burger
[spacer height=”20px”]
SHORTSTOP
- Tim Anderson
- Bobby Witt Jr
- JP Crawford
[spacer height=”20px”]
OUTFIELD – MT RUSHMORE
- Jarren Duran
- Alex Verdugo
- Andrew Vaughn
- Ronald Acuna Jr
[spacer height=”20px”]
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Charlie Blackmon
- Byron Buxton – If he plays then the Twins get that major boost they need against Marquez who is pitching better lately. If he sits then I don’t love the Twins that much.
- Yordan Alvarez – Not sure why Severino would bother pitching to him.
[spacer height=”20px”]
OUTFIELD – Value
- Oscar Gonzalez
- AJ Pollock
- Jesse Winker
- Franchy Cordero
[spacer height=”20px”]
The Dongers Club
- Jarren Duran – OF – Boston Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Andrew Vaughn – OF – White Sox
- Ronald Acuna Jr – OF – Braves
- Omar Narvaez – C – Brewers
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- JP Crawford – SS – Mariners
- Whit Merrifield – 2B – Royals
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- BONUS ……………………. Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
[spacer height=”20px”]
CORE PLAYS
Merrill Kelly
2+ Red Sox Lefties
White Sox Value
[spacer height=”20px”]
BETTING PLAYS
Yankees ML — The magic is real
Red Sox ML
White Sox ML
Pittsburgh/Tampa OVER 0.5 1st inning Runs
Pittsburgh/Tampa OVER 7
Braves ML
Rangers ML
Athletics/Royals OVER 8.5 (Alt line)
Rockies ML (If Buxton is out)
Cardinals ML
Mariners ML
Diamondbacks -1.5
Reds ML
[spacer height=”20px”]