Today either is going to be a really awesome slate or it will turn into just blah and that is going to be determined by the weather in that fine state of Ohio. There are two great series starting up between the Diamondbacks/Reds and Rangers/Guardians which both have weather impacts.
If they get PPD then we are down to a 4 game slate, if they don’t we have a quality 6 gamer which has zero divisional games.
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WEATHER
Both the games mentioned above will have RAIN coming into them in the evening. So we have a scenario where if they start them they’re trying to get it in and play through the rain and if they decide to delay then a PPD is highly probable.
The one with the most risk is in Cincinnati – a stadium which is known for managing to get games in if they want too as the stadium seems to drain well. So this is likely to be a goner before 6pm or they’ll play it, which is good so we can plan ahead.
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The good news is that I won’t be planning to use any pitcher in the Ohio games today, so it’s only hitters that would be impacted by that. The bad news is that there are some gross options overall tonight so this quickly becomes a slate where we want to strongly consider leverage and ownership more than anything else.
Each pitcher definitely has risk but a good portion of the risk is that they have limited ceilings.
BLAKE SNELL
There is never a strong time to use Blake Snell, but at home is one scenario where he can get our attention and the pitch usage for him of late has been good throwing 104 on May 24th and 98 pitches on his last start May 31st at St. Louis.
The Mets come in with plenty of power in their lineup however only Pete Alonso & Eduardo Escobar offer strong splits vs LHP on the season. So when we throw in that PETCO Park is not a bad spot to pitch in and the Mets might have a little downer after winning the last two in L.A. we can take a shot with Snell today.
ROBBIE RAY
Meh. That’s how I best sum up Robbie Ray tonight. The overall theme for me today is to not be suckered into “oh well this team is favored and this team is projected to …”. No. I believe Ray can go 6+ against Houston and I believe in what should happen doesn’t today.
The what should happen is the Astros should not strike out. What I believe will happen is Robbie Ray pitches in a comfortable environment to the tune of the highest K total on the board tonight.
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The Leverage options tonight …
Go figure on a short slate is when I come in here and expand with multiple pitching options but there’s a clear path to some leverage choices tonight on the pitching front which are worthy of mention.
DANIEL LYNCH
The highest dew point/weather rating on the slate is in Kauffman Stadium and obviously this is the highest total on the board which will push all the ownership on the Blue Jays bats as well. Yes, they’re hitting well of late with plenty of power and I would not trust Lynch on a main lineup on FD or DK. But if we’re being honest, Lynch has not been the problem for the Royals this season.
His overall strikeout numbers aren’t high because he hasn’t been able to get easy K’s vs LHB simply by not facing many and tonight he’ll see nothing but RHH as well but does have a 20% strikeout rate vs them and there are 5 hitters in this lineup that I poroject him to have K success against with his slider. If he can get past Springer/Bichette in the 1st inning then he’ll wind up with a good game. If he can’t then the chalk will win.
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RED SOX / ANGELS
Verdugo, Devers, Hernandez … Duffy, Ohtani, Trout
The hard part for many tonight will be buying into the Angels offense to turn things around. Being at home should help and facing Michael Wacha is also a nice boost. Overall I really would want to stack the Angels and just focus on Devers/Kike/Verdugo from the Red Sox here.
DIAMONDBACKS
Over the last month the Reds bullpen ranks dead last among the teams on tonight’s slate. So with Hunter Greene being capped usually around 4-5 innings we have half this game in play against a bullpen that is giving up lots of production. The front half of the game vs Greene is going to come down to a Diamondbacks team getting disciplined again and drawing enough walks to work him out and provide work for when they do make contact vs Greene. If this game plays despite rain then we gotta focus on it for offense.
RANGERS
The Rangers on their other hand better do all their damage off Quantrill or they’re done as the Guardians pen is very good right now. But no team has a lower K% matchup vs the SP tonight than the Rangers and yes, we have to trust the Lefties in Cleveland narrative here with Seager, Calhoun and Lowe.
CONTRARIAN TEAM: ROYALS
I mentioned the positive weather above in regards to this game and the whole world is going to be on the Blue Jays tonight. One thing I am looking for in this game is Whit Merrifield to have a big game on the base paths. The Jays shift more than any team in the league and the threat of Whit getting on and stealing will make it so that Toronto cannot do that. If the Royals get a solid game from Whit then guys like Benitendi, Witt Jr and Salvy can come through with decent games too.
The Jays are your chalk, but don’t sleep on the worst offense in the league in good weather conditions vs the Stripper & his pen.
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Today’s BOOST+ players:
Alek Thomas, Kole Calhoun, Oscar Gonzalez, Eduardo Escobar, Santiago Espinal, Josh Rojas, Max STassi, Kyle Farmer, Teoscar Hernandez, Matt Duffy
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CATCHER
- Salvador Perez
- Tyler Stephenson
- Daulton Varsho
FIRST BASE
- Christian Walker
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Ty France
SECOND BASE
- Ketel Marte
- Brandon Drury
- Marcus Semien
THIRD BASE
- Rafael Devers
- Eduardo Escobar
- Josh Rojas
SHORTSTOP
- Corey Seager
- Bobby Witt Jr
OUTFIELD – Mt Rushmore
- Kole Calhoun
- Whit Merrifield
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Value
- Oscar Gonzalez
- Jo Adell
- David Peralta
- Pavin Smith
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- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Kole Calhoun – OF – Rangers
- Alex Verdugo – OF – Red Sox
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Blue Jays
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Tyler Stephenson – C – Reds
- Marcus Semian – 2B – Rangers
- Rafael Devers – 3B – Red Sox
- BONUS ………….. Bobby Witt Jr – SS – Royals
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CORE BUILD
Blake Snell
Corey Seager
Rafael Devers
Kole Calhoun
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OWNERSHIP THOUGHTS
Tonight is a night you either grow a pair and go leverage or you just don’t play at all IMO.
Go contrarian tonight in half your lineup.
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BETTING PLAYS
Angels ML
Blue Jays/Royals OVER 9.5
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