TRAVELERS CHAMPIONSHIP
Major #3 is now behind us and, although I only really got to watch the play on Sunday after a 16-hour drive from Maine due to unreal traffic in Massachusetts, it didn’t shock me that two of the picks were right at the top. Congrats to Renner on hitting the Fitzpatrick (+2500) bet! My man is now on fire in every sport!
Big thanks to him for laying out some other information while I was enjoying family time!
This week will be one of two things – a big letdown for some of the bigger names or a birdie-fest! I’m going with birdie-fest since we go from a monster of a course with rough that I’d still be trying to hack my way out of to one of the shortest courses on the PGA Tour.
I’m not sure if Brooks Koepka is going to play this week since he just announced he’s joining the LIV Tour. I look for him to be suspended like the other guys. Look, I’m all for guys playing wherever they want, but I also understand that, if you signed as a member of the PGA, you have to follow their rules. The other issue I have is that if guys that suck – relatively speaking of course – make over $100K for playing like my 8-handicap ass, how good can the product be?!
General Description: Par 70 at 6,841 yards. Same Par as The Country Club but about 200 yards shorter and much more forgiving. The fairways here widen the farther down you go so bombers will probably just let it fly. However, don’t count out the guys with average driving stats and good approach play.
With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order):
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
- Shots Gained Putting
- Shots Gained Approach
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
For a non-Major, this tournament really gets a quality field. I just came from that part of the country and it’s beautiful. Plus, with the U. S. Open being in the same area this year, it’s a good “cool down” tournament for the guys that just got beat up the week before.
The pricing is high on some of these guys and, normally, I’d say no way since it kills the rest of my lineup. However, with the length on this course and the somewhat relaxed vibe that the event puts out, I can see guys in the low $8K to low $7K range also playing well this week.
- Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) – Who’s playing better? I really thought he was going to pull it off last week. I really hesitate at this price, but I’m playing him in at least one lineup and letting the chips fall where they may.
- Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – 5 Top 10s in his last 6 events, including a win. Oh, and the other was a Top 20. Other than a post-Major letdown, I think he contends this week.
Dew Sweepers:
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,200) – He’s just chugging along and playing well. And, somewhat under the radar. In his last four appearances here, he’s been Top 15 every time.
- Xander Schauffele ($10,000) – Patrick Cantlay for $200 less.
- You can really plug-and-play anyone in this range this week. I don’t dislike anyone. Yeah, that’s a cop-out, but the hay will be made with the picks in the lower tiers if you want to play studs!
$7,500 to $8,900
- Davis Riley ($8,900) – This kid is playing fantastic. Even with a rough weekend he still placed T31 at the U. S. Open.
- Mito Pereira ($8,700) – Missed the cut last week, but he’s really playing well. I can see this tournament as a potential first win for him on the PGA tour.
Dew Sweepers:
- Brian Harman ($8,600) – His course history here is really good. His control, ball striking and tee-to-green game should play here!
- Jason Day ($8,100) – I know he’s a little bit of “Forrest Gump chocolate guy” right now – you never know what you’re going to get. But, how can you pass on this guy at this price on a course that shouldn’t intimidate his game at all.
- Si Woo Kim ($7,600) – It’s a Pete Dye course! No more needs said about Si Woo!
$7,000 to $7,400
Still risky, but this course favors even the guys in this range.
- C. T. Pan ($7,300) –His course history here is questionable – home run or strikeout – but he’s probably never entered this event playing as consistently as he is now. He’s a cut maker that allows you to play the top tier with confidence.
- Nick Hardy ($7,100)- I didn’t realize how good this kid can be until I saw him on Sunday holding his own. He’s worth a shot.
Dew Sweepers:
- Matthew NeSmith ($7,200) – Yet to make a cut at this event in two attempts, but, it’s two attempts! And, much like C. T. Pan, he’s probably never been playing this well coming into it. Plus, a T14 on a difficult course should give him confidence.
- Chez Reavie ($7,200) – He appears to have “righted” his game in the last few weeks and his course history is outstanding. It’s not often you get a relatively recent winner of an event (2019) for a price like this.
Under $7,000
It’s definitely not awful!
- Wyndham Clark ($6,700)
- Andrew Putnam ($6,600)
- Matthias Schwab ($6,500)
LONGSHOT:
- Chris Gotterup ($6,400) – I’m sticking with this kid to play well. He’s a salary saver that I think makes the cut again this week.
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1
Scottie Scheffler
Davis Riley
Mito Pereira
(Leaves you $7,066 per golfer) – Yeah, sleep easy!
CORE #2 (balanced):
Mito Pereira
Brian Harman
Marc Leishman
(Leaves you $8,100 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 30% Key Stats/20% Course History:
(V) = Value at $7,900 or less
- Patrick Cantlay
- Rory McIlroy
- Sam Burns
- Xander Schauffele
- Joaquin Niemann
- Seamus Power
- Sungjae Im
- Marc Leishman
- Keegan Bradley
- Brian Harman
- Scottie Scheffler
- Harold Varner III
- Aaron Wise
- Jordan Spieth
- Justin Thomas
- Mito Pereira
- Brendon Todd (V)
- Davis Riley
- Brooks Koepka
- Brandan Steele (V)
Christiaan Bezuidenhout (V)
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!