Welcome to Monday, our best day of the week this season by far, no? I would say yes. This is of course the week before the All-Star Break and so you’re going to see some teams who might check out mentally a bit early but also historically this is a higher scoring week.
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WEATHER
No PPD risk today. Very warm games in St. Louis and Cleveland
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I am guessing that we will see Brayan Bello chalk again. He gets to go on the road vs a weak Rays lineup in what is typically viewed as a pitchers ballpark, but the Red Sox are no doubt losing this game tonight and I’m not taking a chalky young SP just yet. Plus you don’t need that salary $ relief tonight.
MAX SCHERZER
A battle down in the ATL between two Max’s (vs Fried) and the Scherzer K upside against the Braves is double what Fried can do vs the Mets in my mind. Atlanta continues to be one of the higher swinging strike teams as they offset that by hitting the ball hard when they do make contact.
Max has no restrictions tonight and I am confident he pitches well.
ALEX COBB
These teams just met down in Chase Field and it was a bad but not horrific start for Cobb. He had to deal with Joey Bart catching for him out of the blue and I didn’t like that swap but if Bart starts again tonight I think we could see better performance from Cobb at home.
Usually these re-matches go opposite the second time and thus Cobb should have less early inning issues today.
MERRILL KELLY
I am right back on this match-up from a game stack perspective. Both guys went 6+ last time and both can do that again in a better park and the Giants just don’t hit for much power at home in night games this season.
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OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
Max Fried could be okay if he can get good defense behind him, which he usually does. But the Mets to me have too many guys who can go off in a nice park shift for me to expect him to be clean.
Game 2 of the Tigers/Royals double-header could prove to show some pitching value. Daniel Lynch is back but is not on my radar with potential limits around him.
Lance Lynn & Aaron Nola will get hit tonight.
If you want a sleeper pitcher, for me it is Jose Urena, but I see no reason to be that cute so we’ll just go light on the Padres.
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White Sox vs Guardians
Eloy, Tim Anderson … Naylor, Jones, Gimenez
Much like St. Louis the weather here is fantastic for hitting and Nolan Jones gets to make his LiC debut at home tonight. Chicago isn’t a big lefty team but they do like them some Cal Quantrill. Tim Anderson is expected back and is a guy who must do well for Chicago to remain in this game.
Lance Lynner might as well be called Lance Loser tonight after his lefty struggles re-emerge.
Phillies vs Cardinals
It’s almost 100 degrees in St. Louis and Aaron Nola dodged the Cardinals when they came to Philadelphia but now has to deal with Arenado, Gorman and Goldy. A good low ball team who should see lots of that tonight and in very warm conditions Nola is a very risky play.
Philly shouldn’t be ignored against Miles Mikolas. We’ve seen some guys pitching above their pay grade start to take it on the chin (like Nestor Cortes) and sometimes when you take it on the chin you wind up with a bloody upper lip and that mustache on Mikolas is going to look a little dirty tonight after Schwarber and Hoskins are done with him.
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ONE OFF HITTERS
Kole Calhoun – Calhoun and the Rangers are likely going to b ea popular play today. I don’t think they blow up on Oakland but Calhoun and Adolis Garcia make the best plays here with Corey Seager being a strong third candidate.
Nomar Mazara – Absolutely too cheap in Coors FIeld for Nomar yes, but also he should hit Jose Urena out of all the guys in this lineup.
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OTHER GAME THOUGHTS
I don’t like much about the Coors game tonight besides Luke Voit, so I will pass going heavy there and fill in where the position depth charts indicate we should.
Texas should definitely hit Adrian Martinez, but do not be shocked if Oakland wins that game 7-5.
The Mets will hit 2 homers tonight as well.
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Today’s BOOST+ Players …
Here is why we are not bothering with a value arm tonight. The value is in the offense with a bunch of young or low priced players who are grading out extremely well today and especially in the outfield.
Nomar Mazara, Kole Calhoun, Riley Greene, Adolis Garcia, Seth Brown, Vinnie Pasquantino, Luke Voit, Darick Hall, Javier Baez, Bobby Witt Jr, Eloy Jimenez
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CATCHER
Your donkey chalky play here on DK is going to be Jorge Alfaro if he gets the nod for San Diego. Sub 4k players in Coors always are popular, especially catchers. In a phils/cards game stack I do like Realmuto a good bit but there isn’t a pitch Spencer Howard throws which Sean Murphy can’t hit.
- Sean Murphy
- Jorge Alfaro
- JT Realmuto
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FIRST BASE
Deepest position today. If we can dodge Coors Field chalk then we are in the money with the other plays here who all should come in under 5% and I didn’t even get to Hall or Pasquantino.
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Rhys Hoskins
- Luke Voit
- Ji-Man Choi
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SECOND BASE
No. No we are not playing Robinson Cano. I don’t even know if he is in the player pool and I don’t even care.
- Nolan Gorman
- Andres Gimenez
- Isaac Parades
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THIRD BASE
This is a dumpster fire after Arenado. You can’t pay me to touch Devers, nor do I want Riley and Machado vs a sinker baller? Nah.
- Nolan Arenado
- Jeimer Candelario
- Nolan Jones
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SHORTSTOP
- Tim Anderson
- Corey Seager
- Javier Baez
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Eloy Jimenez
- Ramon Laureano
- Kyle Schwarber
- Nomar Mazara
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Adolis Garcia
- Kole Calhoun
- Starling Marte
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OUTFIELD – VALUE
- Dylan Carlson
- Seth Brown
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The Dongers Club
- Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Ramon Laureano – OF – Athletics
- Sean Murphy – C – Athletics
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Javier Baez – SS – Tigers
- Adolis Garcia – OF – Rangers
- Nomar Mazara – OF – Padres
- BONUS ………….. Ji-Man Choi – 1B – Rays
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CORE PLAYS
SP: Max Scherzer
2B: Nolan Gorman
OF: Eloy Jimenez
OF: Nomar Mazara
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BETTING PLAYS
Whoever wins G1 of Royals/Tigers loses G2
Tampa Bay Rays ML
Boston/Tampa UNDER 8
Oakland Athletics ML
Arizona/SF Under 8
Phillies/Cardinals OVER 7.5
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