Unfortunately, we have no MLB for a few days after today. It has been a fantastic first half this season and I am glad you have all joined along for the ride as we improve every year more and more.
Yes, there are additional sports beyond Baseball, which is obviously my favorite, including our most dominant Dashboard the College Football model, which will be coming in late August and then NFL right after that.
But for now, it remains Baseball season, even with a little break coming up this week.
So go spend some time with your better half if you have one with Baseball gone and make the most of that time.
Then on Tuesday when you realize that is why you were playing DFS in the first place we can do some donkey bets on the all star game, okay?
I do have good news though. This year MLB has a larger Thursday after the all star break schedule because of the delay to start the season among other things and so we’ll be back on Thursday, July 21st with a Dongers Club post the ASB to Ambush everyone else with.
For now though, lets close out with a good Sunday for a change.
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WEATHER
Storms in and around Cleveland between the Tigers and Guardians
Storms in and around St. Louis between the Reds and Cardinals
Tempers flaring up in DC between the Braves and the Nationals
Winds in with high humidity in Chicago for Mets and Cubs
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Oh we got all kinds of pitching options today. We got your top end guys and we got your mid range Sunday Sleepers. It’s a quality pitching slate which is funneling the offense into a one off type of slate.
SHANE BEIBER
We finally have Beiber against the Tigers without a rain delay, without a PPD and make-up scenario, son of a bitch it’s gonna rain. Why? Why does every Beiber start vs the Tigers this year bring rain with it? Unreal.
Cleveland has been $$$ to me all weekend and today we want to back the pitching in a lower scoring game behind their ace who only needed 95 pitches to go 9 IP vs Chicago in his last start and pitches well at home. If the weather looks clear then Beiber should be able to dominate, but unfortunately, it doesn’t, so I just wasted a good 5-10 seconds of your life unless you are a slow reader in which case it was 15 seconds, sorry.
AARON NOLA
Nola has been just fine away from home this season, seeing his strike out rate jump to 28.3% despite giving up 80% of his homers on the road. The good news is that the roof should be closed in Miami and in this case the Marlins only hit him in Philadelphia — although a Jesus Sunday HR is very likely today but not as likely as the homers that Cease, Cole and Sale give up so that’s why Nola is ahead of them all.
SPENCER STRIDER
The Nationals have only had one opposing starting pitcher throw 10+ strikeouts against them all season long. That pitcher was none other than Spencer Strider back in June when he struck out 11 over 5 2/3 IP with 22 swinging strikes in that meeting. I do think we are going to see a bump in the road from Strider earl y in the 2nd half of the season but for 9,200 his upside is too great to not use him.
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The Sunday Sleeper
This is a unique Sunday because we have teams who are ready for their vacation as a potential area to target. If ever there was a perfect storm of a team who wants to go out with the fellas on a road trip right before having to go home to 3 days with the wife and kids, it would have to be South Beach, no?
Trevor Rogers
This gives us someone who can get enough whiffs and is likely to find himself in a nice low scoring pitchers duel with Nola, but this is one the Marlins will take and the Phillies are going to be half way through the security line at the MIA before this one is over — and that’s quite the accomplishment if you have ever flown through MIA.
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Other Pitching Thoughts
Jake Odorizzi … Houston is so damn good at coaching pitchers, they have finally realized that you only pitch Odorizzi on Sunday’s against mediocre teams. He dropped a 30 on the Athletics last Sunday and probably drops a 23 on them today.
Dylan Cease … It is fitting that Cease and Strider are on the bump at the same time because they’re very much the same guy this season. Not just the stache’s but neither guy is going past 6 innings because they try to strike everyone out. This is Cease’s limitation and at some point he has to turn that corner to prove he will be an Ace long term. With the all-star snub in the back of his mind and low humidity in Target Field, now is a good time to pitch a gem Mr. Cease but Max Kepler is a lurking homer and I’m not confident Cease doesn’t break out the walks again today. I’m going to fade unless Beiber is 100% ruled out due to weather and then Cease is an option on an alternate lineup.
Chris Archer, Alex Lange, Whatever the Nationals decide to do and Steven Matz should all be limited and I don’t just mean their talent levels.
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MARINERS
Winker, Crawford, France/Santana
When you have won 13 games in a row you are not looking forward to a break at all. Throw in that Glenn Otto carries issues with throwing strikes and gives up hard contact to lefties and we have another Mariners win today to stretch it to 14 games going into the break.
PSST. Texas is gonna score some runs here too off Chris Flexen, but lose
Os vs Rays
This one looks like it should have some runs scored in it. Hard to trust a stack on either side but the Brandon Lowe return to the Rays lineup really helps them out while Franco remains out. Baltimore is my favorite sneaky play today. The more and more I wrote through my article the more I found myself liking the Orioles as a stack play. Santander and Urias are the top core plays from Baltimore and the Lowe’s from the Rays.
UPDATE: We have Josh Lowe leading off for Tampa and between him and Brandon Lowe are two righties that will give Lyles fits. Well done Mr. Cash. I still think Baltimore puts up a good amount here too.
BRAVES
Riley, Ozuna, TDA
I don’t want to stack up the Braves, but we know they are who they are and that is a team who could hit four solo homers and pay off despite not dropping a 12 spot. Is Austin Riley not the greatest power hitter in the National League right now?
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Other good hitting targets
RED SOX vs YANKEES – JD vs Gleyber
If ever there was a perfect one off game it is this one. One Boston guy (JD, Xander or Devers) and one NY Guy (Not Carp, not Judge, maybe Stanton, not Rizzo, probably Gleyber) will hit a homer today.
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Top Boost+ Players:
Ozuna, Bregman, Hoskins, Drury, Gorman, Stephenson, Crawford, Suzuki, Harris II, Bohm, Raleigh, Bolt, Mejia
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CATCHER
- Francisco Mejia
- Adley Rutschman
- Cal Raleigh
- Travis d’Arnaud
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FIRST BASE
I am pretty sure that Steve Balboni, Sid Bream and Wally Joyner also homered yesterday. Goldy, Rhys, Vinnie P, Olson, Naylor, Santana, F’n Luis Arraez even homered. Heck, Freddie Freeman homered last night. It was quite the day for 1B yesterday.
Today is all about the Sunday boys.
- Pete Alonso
- Jose Abreu
- Carlos Santana / Ty France
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SECOND BASE
Brandon Lowe returned in a big way for the Rays yesterday and is a fine play, but Gleyber vs Sale is either a DFS must or a HR Prop Bet must today, let’s not miss out on that.
- Gleyber Torres
- Brandon Lowe
- Jose Altuve
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THIRD BASE
There are three studs here who I really like in Bregman, Riley and Devers. But if we want a position which is going to provide sneaky value today, it should be the hot corner. Bregman grades out fantastically, Riley is the new Goat and Devers owns Cole.
But how many of you woke up today and said, yeah, this is a Roman Urias / Josh Harrison / Josh Smith day?
- Alex Bregman – For 3200 on FD he is a steal.
- Ramon Urias
- Austin Riley
- Josh Smith
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SHORTSTOP
Really like Lindor and Seager to get over 10 DK FPTS today, while JP Crawford is in a good spot too but at a slight discount.
- JP Crawford
- Francisco Lindor
- Corey Seager
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Jesse Winker
- Max Kepler
- Marcell Ozuna … Ozuna is hitting sub .200 in day games this season but has 8 HR, 5 of which have come on Sunday’s. He’s been cold for a while and law of averages says he breaks out today.
- Seiya Suzuki … Suzuki or Contreras will take Peterson deep for the Cubs, I lean on Suzuki and his price is very affordable.
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Jose Rodriguez – From a one off perspective Winker is better but from a stack perspective you can’t play full Seattle without J-Rod, they won’t go off without him.
- JD Martinez
- Byron Buxton
- Cedric Mullins
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Josh Lowe
- Anthony Santander
- Dylan Carlson
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- Jesse Winker – OF – Mariners – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Seiya Suzuki – OF – Cubs
- Gleyber Torres – 2B – Yankees
- Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
- Ramon Urias – 3B – Orioles
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Francisco Mejia – C – Rays
- BONUS ……….. Marcell Ozuna – OF – Braves
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CORE PLAYS
As you might have gathered I didn’t see a specific easy value play to lock in today. I want to wait and see how lineups play out and will mix and match in 1-2 value bats based off that most likely, but I don’t want to wind up going studs and duds type on pricing because we’ve got lots of 8k-9k pitchers who are in good spots and lots of 4k-5k hitters in good spots as well, so depth and balanced should pay off today unless everyone just winds up resting.
2B – Gleyber Torres
3B – Alex Bregman (FD), Ramon Urias (DK)
SS – JP Crawford
OF – Jesse Winker
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RANDOM THOUGHTS
Good team most likely to check out early for the All-Star Break & do nothing today: Mets
Bad team most likely to check out early for the All-Star Break & take a beating today: Athletics
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BETTING PLAYS
ML Parlay #1: Cleveland + Houston + Seattle
Boston 1st 5 Inning Run Line
Os/Rays over 7.5
Baltimore Orioles ML
Gleyber Torres over 1.5 total bases
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