A nice little start yesterday to get into the second half and it should be just as strong ast the first half.
Outside of Baseball, we’ll have some NFL and College Football Content coming out in August slowly building up to those regular seasons but they will not deter at all from the Dongers Club and Baseball since sports in Regular Season mode take priority always over those in pre-season mode.
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WEATHER
Very warm and all games play on tonight’s 13 game MAIN slate which does not include the Cardinals and Reds sadly.
LAA at ATL: Chance of Thunderstorms
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We go into the first full slate of the second half with some big name pitchers as one would expect given that they’ve been off for 4+ days and team can reset their rotations.
MAX SCHERZER
While Max isnt’ the prototypical pitcher who can dominate the Padres, he is at home and he still will manage to have a game which produces 7+ strikeouts. It’s 90 with 10 MPH out to center so the chances of Mazara, Cronenworth or Voit taking him deep are good but he will do what Max does. 7 innings, 7+ K and no more than 3 ER.
CORBIN BURNES
This is the second consecutive start for Burnes in which he is coming off a week+ of rest and last time all he did was throw 115 pitches over 7 1/3 vs San Francisco, striking out 10 and putting up 30+ DK points.
While Colorado is a team who I think can do damage this weekend in Milwaukee, they are not opposed to helping out the opposing SP with strikeouts and their best chances to do harm are with Burnes walking guys, which he hasn’t been doing in his recent home starts.
KYLE GIBSON
One of my second half predictions is that the Phillies make it into the playoffs and Kyle Gibson going on a 4 game winning streak to start the second half is going to be a big reason why.
He starts that tonight vs the Cubs who were most definitely enjoying their Summer Break and won’t be ready tonight.
SPENCER HOWARD
I am going to go ahead and push the GO button on my Rangers second half bets. One of the BUY’s I have on this team is someone I have been dead set against for a long time and that is Mr. Howard.
He’s pitching better as he expands his arsenal and now gets a big park with a bad Oakland lineup which he walked 0 batters last time he saw them on July 11th and should get a similar performance today. He’s the best cheap punt SP tonight.
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Other pitching thoughts
Braxton Garrett (MIA) … Garrett had a big K jump vs Pittsburgh on July 14th and they’re really bad vs LHP of late, plus 5 guys here have 30%+ DCPA strikeout projections. But Garrett was in a good routine going every 5th day and now has to pitch on extended rest and on the road vs Pittsburgh, where I do not think he repeats that masterful performance.
Shohei Ohtani (LAA) vs Charlie Morton (ATL) … Two teams who always offer K upside and two pitchers who always can have 7 inning strong outings. I am not touching either with Max and Burnes being ahead of them tonight though.
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BLUE JAYS
Hernandez – Guerrero – Vlad – Kirk
A dead fastball team vs a dead fastball arm and in a warm park where lots of guys historically have dominated.
Toronto either comes out the second half like gangbusters or they flop and swap spots with the White Sox as the biggest frauds in the A.L. I am banking on the gangbuster theme.
WHITE SOX
Anderson – Vaughn – Abreu
You have made it through 3 1/2 months of White Sox hype, you can sit through another 2 months, okay? They won’t K vs Quantrill and the wind going more out to left than anything else likely gives Vaughn and Abreu enough boost today. Both are 1B on DK, but can be stacked together on FD where I actually like stacking the White Sox more based on the prices of Anderson.
RAYS
Arozarena – Lowe – Lowe
Not a Rays at home Friday night play, but Brad Keller vs Tampa isn’t going to avoid damage. The Dew Point here is very high, Brandon Lowe is back for a big second half and Arozarena/Choi likely have big games here too.
NATS vs DIAMONDBACKS
Unfortunately they couldn’t fix the roof over the break, but it wouldn’t be open anyways. Patrick Corbin is back in Arizona for a chance to give up 3 ER in the first inning off a Christian Walker HR and then more when Carson Kelly drives in runs in the 4th.
Don’t sleep on the Nats here either. Soto isn’t a must at his price but Bell, Cruz and Keibert are good plays.
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Other game to consider
Houston vs Seattle … Yes, I am the Houston in Seattle guy and they a lefty, but off the double header sweep of the Yankees I am cautious about going heavy on this game tonight.
If anything, Urquidy is the guy to attack. 10 of his HR have come on the road and 13 overall vs RHB. It’s Ty France you need here tonight.
Baltimore … Mullins/Adley is a nice 1-2 at the top of the lineup
Milwaukee … If things go south in a hurry for Senzatella they could have a big first 3 innings here.
Cleveland … I like the over in this game, but dont like that Franmil is out.
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Top Boost+ Players:
Nomar Mazara, KeBryan hayes, Nolan Jones, Alec Bohm, Jurickson Profar, Josh Lowe, Martin Maldanado
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CATCHER
Kirk/Jansen for Toronto are 4th/5th legs of a big stack there, not one off picks IMO. But they are fine in stack plays. There’s cheaper options out in that Chase Field game.
- Carson Kelly
- Keibert Ruiz
- Martin Maldanado
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FIRST BASE
Double down on First Base on FD tonight.
- Christian Walker – Likely a chalky play on DK at 3500 vs Corbin, and good chalk.
- Ty France
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Andrew Vaughn / Jose Abreu
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SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Ketel Marte
- Kolten Wong
- Rougned Odor – 2900 value play
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THIRD BASE
You can play the Nolan Arenado HR prop bet so long as you get it in before 6:40 when that game starts.
Otherwise this is a shaky position at best.
- KeBryan Hayes
- Alec Bohm
- Eugenio Suarez
- Yandy Diaz
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SHORTSTOP
Nobody here grades out as a Tier 1 pick tonight, so paying for 5k+ guys when Max/Burnes types are on the bumps is very hard to justify on DK. Any stud here is a FD play, like Timmy
- Tim Anderson (FD)
- Diego Castillo / Kevin Newman – Either Pirate
- Taylor Walls
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Cedric Mullins … Yes, the Yankees are going to start the second half with 5 straight losses and tonight is #3 headlined by Mullins lead off HR.
- Randy Arozarena
- Ramel Tapia
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Christian Yelich
- Nelson Cruz
- Joc Pederson
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Nolan Jones … Death, Taxes, me screaming Nolan Jones should not still be $2,000! Clearly an error on the DK Algo.
- Jarren Duran
- Brett Phillips
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- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Toronto Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Keibert Ruiz – C – Nationals
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Cedric Mullins – OF – Orioles
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers
- Tim Anderson – SS – White Sox
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- BONUS ………… Ty France – 1B – Mariners
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CORE PLAYS
I want to pay up for pitching and would not mind saving $ at SS, OF3 and 3B tonight on DraftKings.
Mullins, Hernandez and Walker are CORE hitters, although Walker can be swapped off to another spot if it doesn’t fit right as 1B is deep.
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RANDOM THOUGHTS
I love a slate like this where so much emphasis is going to be put on Vegas odds and I haven’t even looked at those before I type up my betting plays below. Coming out of the gate in the second half is a balance of knowing what everyone is and also who needed a reset at the break.
Yes, I believe the Yankees lose to Baltimore tonight and playing 2 games yesterday doesn’t help them that much from a hitting/timing perspective and they then had to travel twice in 3 days.
I would also not like to touch any SP who is coming off a bad/below avg start right now. They’ll need today to try and get to a reset point before a bounce back. This includes Morton, Eovaldi, Gonzales.
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BETTING PLAYS
Baltimore ML
Phillies ML
Blue Jays ML
Guardians/White SOX OVER 8.5
Tampa Bay ML
Diamondbacks ML (or take the over)
Texas ML
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To win the series bets….
Rangers
Orioles
Phillies
Blue Jays
Diamondbacks
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