Alright, two articles coming today. There is what I consider the MAIN slate that locks ta 4PM today on both sites and then DraftKings has a 5 game evening slate that includes the two double header games today, so I’ll do a quick analysis on that slate as well.
The two double headers are Tampa/Toronto and New York/Cleveland.
Thankfully, both sites have the same 9 games on the 4:05 PM EST slate.
And yes, today is Saturday. So Happy Mt. Rushmore Saturday HR Club Day
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WEATHER
Marlins at Nationals – PPD Risk or they just wait it out which is more likely. I have one play in this game and his name is Nelson Cruz
Cardinals at Phillies – I believe this game plays.
All other games are free and clear of PPD risk and obviously they are day games so the temps are nice.
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DYLAN CEASE
I think Dylan Cease and Logan Webb have something written into their contracts that says they must start in day games only.
For Cease this will be his 11th day game start of the season compared to 5 night starts. In the night starts Cease has posted a 5.32 ERA but in day games? He’s been the Cy Young candidate I thought he would be with a 1.41 ERA. Call it luck of the opponents if you want too, but the Giants aren’t exactly a tough opponent for him and it’s not that warm out in San Francisco — which is a big deal in that park.
Webb meanwhile is making his 12th day game start compared to just 4 night games, he has opposite splits though in Day/Night games this year but is certainly not a horrible SP2 to pair with Cease and just roll along.
GEORGE KIRBY
After correctly fading (and betting against) Kirby early this week vs Baltimore I now am on the Kirby train vs Oakland who has only won back to back games once in the past month or so and that was vs the damn Royals. So Seattle is winning and the only Oakland hitter who grades out slightly okay is Seth Brown.
We just need Kirby to command the zone and if he gives up a solo bomb to Brown then so be it.
LOGAN WEBB
This is a great lineup for Webb to face as it’s mostly RHB and he is very risk adverse with the righties. I am more than fine pairing Webb with Cease in a SP game stack here.
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FAVORITE DARKHORSE SP
Patrick Sandoval – Angels
The Astros have a very concerning trend where they just do not hit on Saturday’s for whatever reason this season. There’s no science behind it but Sandoval is a pitcher who does not get enough credit and despite Houston not being a strike out team I anticipate him pitching a clean game and one of the few games I like a low scoring affair in.
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OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS …
Aaron Ashby, Tyler Mahle, Spenser Strider, Jose Urquidy are four more guys who have an incredible chance at putting up some big strikeout games.
Aaron Ashby … has not pitched since June 16th and the Pirates have been hitting better against LHP but his breaking pitches are likely to give them problems today. I would think he can put up a 6 strike out effort if he can get through 5 innings but in DFS I don’t know that will be enough. Take the over on his K prop if anything.
Jose Urquidy … Is the next up in the line of SP who get to face the free swinging Angels today. Urquidy however is not pitching in another world like Cristian Javier is right now but he is also only $7300 on DK and $8100 on FanDuel making him someone that should wind up doing just fine for his price point and I would imagine he is a popular choice as everyone chases SP vs the Angels.
Strider and Mahle … I believe there will be runs in this game and with Cease, Webb and Kirby all having match-ups which appear much safer I will stop my list with those three but I don’t fault you for considering either here given that they both could post a 10K game. If you picked one though, it probably should be Mahle because they will let him go 100+ pitches and he can get 10K despite allowing 3 HR to Austin Riley.
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BREWERS
Yelich, Tellez, Wong
While it might be rare that a team drops a 19 spot one night and comes back with that result the second day in a row we do have a scenario where the Brewers have a couple specific hitters we are focused on. This team when they are right is very DFS friendly and three of their last five they have hit 10+ runs and the other two in between were still 5 & 7 run affairs.
Christian Yelich was pulled last night and I had a few lineups in the DK Live Final Q, one which had the Brewers based off some data I saw on the model close to lock. Had Yelich not been pulled and left in to face the position player pitching, I could be going to Boston in August.
So yeah, Yelich his homering today.
PHILLIES (& Cards)
Dear Matthew Libertard. You have a phone call on line 3 from a N. Castellanos.
Hoskins, Castellanos … Goldschmidt, Yepez, Gorman
I am a little shocked to see the over/under here at 10, but the weather is going to be hot before the storms roll through and the ball should carry a good amount. Lock in Goldschmidt for the Cardinals against Kyle Gibson, he’s the stud not Arenado and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Yepez & Gorman have good games for St. Louis too.
But the Phillies have two guys in Hoskins and Castellanos which should be licking their chops against Matthew Liberatard.
BRAVES
Austin Riley, Ronald Acuna, Marcell Ozuna
Small park, day game, pitchers who can give up homers. Yeah, this is a game which I would anticipate everything to be a homer, walk or strike out.
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Today’s BOOST+ Players …
Rowdy Tellez, Nelson Cruz (Saturday Club), Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich (Saturday Club), Julio Rodriguez, Alec Bohm, Kolten Wong, Javier Baez, Cesar Hernandez, Matt Vierling, Brandon Nimmo, Eduardo Escobar, Victor Robles
In short… Bet the overs.
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CATCHER
- Mitch Garver
- JT Realmuto
- Omar Narvaez
- Keibert Ruiz
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FIRST BASE
If there was a DFS site in which you had to draft Corner Infielders then today would be the deepest corner infielder slate in the history of man kind. For the FanDuel crowd, your UTIL is 1B or 3B and I don’t want to hear anything of the other kind. Just take a look at these DCPA metrics today.
- Rowdy Tellez
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Rhys Hoskins
- Joey Votto
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SECOND BASE
- Kolten Wong
- Nolan Gorman
- That’s it… That’s the list.
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THIRD BASE
- Austin Riley
- Alec Bohm
- KeBryan Hayes
- Eduardo Escobar
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SHORTSTOP
Welcome to the adventures of Steve Renner versus Javier Baez, July 2nd edition. So Baez has a 99 DCPA rating today, which is an insane boost of 54 percent and against Kris Bubic that definitely makes sense that he is a good play.
However, the curious thing here is something nobody is talking about.
Baez is $2,800 on FanDuel. Okay, big deal you say.
Baez is $6,000 on DraftKings. It was 4600 on 6/28. Then 5400 o n6/29. Then 5700 last night. Now 6000 today. You might be saying okay, big deal, Baez was hot. Well yes, he hit 3 HR from 6/21 through 6/24 in three straight games on the road. Most of those were in Boston though where he always destroys the Red Sox. He hasn’t homered since.
Yet his price still is increasing.
What is going on, at DraftKings?
- Javier Baez
- Bobby Witt Jr
- Day game Didi
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Nelson Cruz
- Christian Yelich
- Mike Trout
- Nick Castellanos
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna Jr
- Seth Brown
- Adolis Garcia
OUTFIELD – Value
- Adam Duvall
- Andrew McCutchen
- Riley Greene
- Jesus Sanchez
- Jack Suwinski
- Andrew Benintendi
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The Dongers Club
- Christian Yelich – OF – Brewers – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Nelson Cruz – OF – Brewers
- Mike Trout – OF – Angels
- Rhys Hoskins – 1B – Phillies
- Javier Baez – SS – Tigers
- Kolten Wong – 2B – Brewers
- Austin Riley – 3B – Braves
- Mitch Garver – C – Rangers
- BONUS ……………………… Nick Castellanos – OF – Phillies
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Value feels a little difficult to navigate on DraftKings today so don’t be scared to punt two spots (Catcher/2B come to mind)
CORE PLAYS
Dylan Cease
Kolten Wong
Christian Yelich
FD: Javy Baez
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BETTING PLAYS
Mariners -185 ML + Brewers ML Parlay
Detroit Tigers -122 ML
Royals/Tigers OVER 9
Brewers/Pirates OVER 9
Rangers/Mets UNDER 9
Angels/Astros UNDER 8
Anytime HR Parlay: Yelich, Cruz, Trout, Hoskins, Riley, Alonso and for G2 of the Yankees DH – Joey Gallo
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