Through all the 2% Chairmen and winning slates there has been one major element that has evaded us this year and that would be these small 4 game afternoon slates. I think today we change that. [spacer height=”20px”] WEATHER Humid, but not that warm in Chicago however the winds are blowing 14 MPH out to right field. [spacer height=”20px”] Naturally after a dumpster fire pitching slate where it literally didn’t matter (I cashed all FanDuel lineups with my pitchers and the winner of the 100k contest had Nick Pivetta there) who you went with as long as it wasn’t Yusei Kikuchi, it would figure that today on a short 4 game slate we have a handful of pitchers who grade well. [spacer height=”20px”] SHANE BIEBER Finally we have the Bieber against Tigers game in this series and the Guardians are going to avoid being swept out of Detroit. DCPA metrics against the Tigers lineup are .258 xWOBA, .341 xSLG and a 27% strike-out rate. Ride the Beebs today. And for those who don’t remember, DCPA = Dongers Club Pitchtype Algo, which calculates the projected lineup and how well they should hit the specific pitchers pitch profiles. JOSE BERRIOS Speaking of avoiding sweeps, the Blue Jays are trying to avoid a sweep in Oakland and I could not love Jose Berrios more here. Yes, day games in Oakland can tend to play up but consider this a little opposite effect as I would even think there’s justification for Berrios on FanDuel here too. [spacer height=”20px”] OTHER PITCHING THOUGHTS … Joe Ryan should match-up against a lefty short lineup like Chicago but his recent struggles have me concerned he can beat out the other guys on this slate. Plus the wind out to RF is a problem. Yes, Corbin Burnes vs Chicago is a likely chalky play. He doesn’t quite have the K% projection upside that Bieber has and that $2400 difference between him and Berrios will feel like a waste when Berrios pitches a gem today. Lance Lynn is always less appealing when he has a lefty lineup that can hit and with the wind blowing out to left plus the Twins hitting extremely well so far this week we will fade him. [spacer height=”20px”] There isn’t one specific pitcher who is the main target above others on this slate. Michael Pineda, Adrian Sampson and James Kaprielian are all good enough…...
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