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GOLF · July 19, 2022

PGA DFS Dew Sweeper – 3M Open

THE 3M OPEN

I have an announcement to make!  I’m quitting Daily Ambush and the DP World Tour because I no longer feel “loved”!

I’ve hired Sergio Garcia as my agent and he will pout at will in order to justify his bad play and my bad picks!  Come on folks!  I get it!  I do!  But, these guys basically threw up their middle fingers at the PGA and DPS World Tours for nothing more than money.  They no longer have to play well to earn a paycheck and that smacks the thrill of competition right in the face.  I agree 100% with the exchange between Sergio and Rory (not verbatim):

Sergio:      With the LIV Tour, Rory, we finally get what we deserve!

Rory:         Sergio, we play golf for a living!  We don’t “deserve” anything!

The product is not helped by the LIV Tour.  DFS and the sports books benefit, but much like the shift in baseball, it does nothing to improve the sport or it’s “watchability”!

If was still allowed on Twitter, I’d probably call Sergio a “pussy” and get suspended again!

Now to golf – at least until they demand to be paid to for picking them on your DFS team.

General Description:  TPC Twin Cities is a fun and fair course.  While the field usually sucks because of its position in the schedule – right after The Open – the scoring is typically pretty good.

  • Par 71 that plays between 7,468 yards
  • Wide and forgiving fairways.
  • Lots of water and probably only TPC Sawgrass may see more water balls.
  • Short Par 4s which have enabled the scoring the last three years (-19, -21 & -15)

With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order):

  • Shots Gained Off-the-Tee
  • Bogey-or-Better % (Both on Par 4s and Par 5s)
  • Driving Distance

We are back to the “hold your breath” pricing for golfers #2 through #4 in your lineups unless you go balanced.  Even then, it won’t necessarily be a widely recognized list of names.

Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position.  It’s all about price and current form in my opinion.  The format will be:

  • Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
  • “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
  • At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
  • Two (or Three) “Cores”
  • Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats

NOTE:  All pricing is based on DraftKings

Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):

  • $9,000 and Above
  • $7,500 to $8,900
  • $7,000 to $7,400
  • Under $7,000

$9,000 and Above

As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:

    1. Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well.  Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
    2. Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky.  If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.

We did pretty well last week with the picks in this group, but none of them are here this week.

  • Maverick McNealy ($9,300) – Didn’t play at The Open last week so the long travel not being a factor is a plus.  The other plus? He’s last three events have been T9-T16-T8.  He’s also pretty long off the tee.
  • Davis Riley ($9,000) – Also didn’t travel last week and has been playing very well.  He’s made his last 7 cuts and 9 of his last 10.  Now, making cuts at $9K isn’t necessarily all you want, but with “down” fields, guys like Davis can break through.

Dew Sweepers:

  • Sahith Theegala ($9,800) – He played well last week after making it into The Open when Daniel Berger withdrew.  I’m hoping the travel doesn’t bother him.
  • Sungjae Im ($10,000) – This guy plays a lot.  Much like Theegala, he doesn’t miss many tournaments.  He’s already played in 20 events this year and Theegala has played 26.  Could the time change be an issue?  Possibly, but we definitely don’t need to worry about being rusty!

 

$7,500 to $8,900

  • J. T. Poston ($8,500) – The Postman!  He did miss the cut at St. Andrew’s, but that just means he probably came home early.  His prior two events resulted in a Win and a T2!  Other than Xander, you’d be hard-pressed to find a guy playing any better – especially at this price!
  • Cameron Davis ($8,900) – Top of the range but, after a rough start to the season, he’s made six straight cuts.  He has the talent to compete in full fields.  I think that, in a depleted field, he could win.

Dew Sweepers:

  • Brendan Steele ($8,300) – 7 cuts in a row!  In weeks like this, I’m looking at getting guys that are playing well.  The fact that he is somewhat of a veteran is a bonus.
  • Chris Gotterup ($7,900) – Not a veteran, but he’s playing well and looks like a guy who should be around for some time – unless LIV throws cash at him too!  He missed the cut at Barbasol but that was because he opened with a 75 on Thursday.  He’s good enough to be on the first page of a leaderboard in a field like this.

 

$7,000 to $7,400

Still risky, but this course favors even the guys in this range.

  • Joohyung Kim ($7,300) – I’m really liking this guy.  You don’t hear much during the tournament, but when it’s done, he has 60 to 80 fantasy points.  Again, in this field and with this scoring, I say “Jooh-betcha”!
  • Chesson Hadley ($7,300) – He’s made 5 straight cuts and has two Top 10s in his last 4 events.  Normal weeks, I wouldn’t care.  However, in weeks like this, you will see plenty of names on the leaderboard you don’t normally see and Chesson has been there before.  Put it this way.  I don’t look for Finau, Im and Matsuyama to all play well.

Dew Sweepers: (FYI – Sahith Theegala was here last week!)

  • Michael Gligic ($7,000) – Made 7 of last 8 cuts (WD in the other) and has two Top 25s in his last 4 events.
  • Callum Tarren ($7,000) – He’s been up and down, but he’s been good when he’s made cuts.

 

Under $7,000

Ah, Hell no this week!  But, if you need it:

  • Seung-yul Noh ($6,300)
  • Cameron Percy ($6,500)

LONGSHOT:

  • Jason Day ($7,800) – What?!  Day can’t be a longshot!  He’s won a Major!  J-Day is also not the same J-Day as 5 years ago!  Hell, two years ago!  He’s sometimes a longshot to finish, let alone place in the Top 10.  Not sure why, but I think he will this week!

 

No more fades!  I’m going with the positive.  Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:

 

CORE #1 (top heavy):

Tony Finau

Cameron Davis

JT. Poston

(Leaves you $7,366 per golfer)

 

CORE #2 (balanced):

Maverick McNealy

JT. Poston

Nick Hardy

(Leaves you $8,066 per golfer)

 

FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:

TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 35% Key Stats/15% Course History:

(V) = Value at $8,000 or less

  • Tony Finau
  • Adam Hadwin
  • Maverick McNealy
  • Cameron Davis
  • Cameron Tringale
  • Sungjae Im
  • Hideki Matsuyama
  • Adam Long
  • J. T. Poston
  • Nick Hardy
  • Brendan Steele
  • Davis Riley
  • Troy Merritt   (V)
  • Adam Svensson  (V)
  • Tom Hoge   (V)
  • Martin Laird
  • Chez Reavie
  • Tom Kim  (V)
  • Christopher Gotterup  (V)
  • Sahith Theegala

I’m not as excited about the play this week, but events like this are sometimes great places to win some money.  The casual player passes because they only pay attention to Majors and the readers get some insight on the guys that others are saying “who the Hell is that”?

Ask questions on Discord if you have them.  Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!

GOOD LUCK!!

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