ROCKET MORTGAGE CLASSIC
Groundhog Day – Golf DFS Style! The fireworks that happened at the TPC Twin Cities can, and likely will, repeat this week at the Detroit Golf Club! So, let’s bring in the month of July with Independence Day fireworks and end the month with birdies and eagles filling the air in Michigan.
For the record, I’ve fired Sergio Garcia as my agent. I mean, dammit, if you can’t make a decision and stick to it, why the hell would I want you negotiating for me? Sergio will probably be starring in one of those cheap Spanish soap operas that air on Telemundo in a few years.
Enough about the Days of Our Professional Golf Tours!
We are up to another relatively new tournament at the Donald Ross design in Detroit.
General Description:
- Par 72 that plays between 7,300 yards – so, on the shorter end
- Average-width fairways.
- Short and escapable rough
- In the three years we’ve played here, -18 has been the worst winning score
With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order) – Groundhog Day, remember:
- Shots Gained Off-the-Tee
- Bogey-or-Better % (Both on Par 4s and Par 5s)
- Driving Distance
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
We did pretty well last week with the picks in this group, but none of them are here this week.
- Will Zalatoris ($10,400) – I just like to play him. He needs to get his first PGA tour win at some point so why not on an easy course with an above-average field. From a rolling stats standpoint (last 16 rounds) only Tony Finau is better – and I think last week has a lot to do with that.
- Patrick Cantlay ($10,700) – Warning! Rarely, if ever, will you see me recommend two of the highest-priced guys at the same time. But, I just like these two a lot! And, for the record, I did make a DraftKings lineup with both of them and still kept my lunch down! I’m not saying to do that, but if you play multiple lineups, I’d start at least one with each of them. Plus, Top 15 in his last 5 events is hard to argue with!
Dew Sweepers:
- Max Homa ($9,900) – He missed the cut at The Open and didn’t play last week. I think playing with Tiger distracted him more than he let on given how big of a Tiger fan he is. Five Top 25s in six events prior to that is more important.
- Kevin Kisner ($9,100) – T8 here last year and 3rd in 2020. Let’s face it, he was playing like shit until about a month ago so this is a Course History play. He’s not long, but is usually accurate. Lack of length should not hurt him here and his last two tournaments have been a lot better.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Mark Hubbard ($8,000) – I was disappointed when he withdrew last week. He is playing fantastic golf. Hopefully, that was just for rest. I’m going back to the guy that shines in tournaments with a lesser-quality field. He had a T12 here in 2020 but I’m more intrigued by his 4th-3rd-T13 run in the last three events he played.
- Maverick McNealy ($8,800) – He disappointed me last week. Not because he missed the cut – he didn’t – but because of the lack-luster scoring display he put on. I think he bounces back this week with a Top 15.
Dew Sweepers:
- Scott Stallings ($7,700) – He’s been hit or miss. But, when he’s hit in the last couple of months, it’s been Top 10. He’s also made the cut here every year.
- Joohyung Kim ($7,600) – I’m sticking with this guy in my lineups as long as he continues to be priced low in this tier.
$7,000 to $7,400
Still risky, but this course favors even the guys in this range.
- Chris Gotterup ($7,400) – Is he setting the tour ablaze? No. What he is doing is putting together quality tournaments despite the fact that he’s struggled a bit in the first round of his last two events. If he straightens that out, you could see another first page of the leader board appearance (T4 at John Deere) for a price that should not be there.
- C. T. Pan ($7,300) – Just make cuts baby, just make cuts! .
Dew Sweepers: (FYI – Sahith Theegala was here last week!)
- Michael Gligic ($7,000) – Made 8 of last 9 cuts (WD in the other) and has three Top 25s in his last 5 events. (Just a number update for Groundhog Day!)
- Callum Tarren or Greyson Sigg ($7,100) – I wouldn’t object to using either of these guys at this price given their recent performances. I probably lean towards Sigg a little more – but that’s just me.
Under $7,000
Ah, Hell no this week! Wait, maybe? It’s not that bad – if you need it:
- Chesson Hadley ($6,900) – Nothing like a quality guy that’s had his struggles and is not only playing for a living, but playing to keep his Tour Card! Last 5: 10th-T31-T68-T10-5th.
- Hayden Buckley ($6,900) – has made every cut since the T14 at the U. S. Open. Sometimes a taste of success for these younger guys when they don’t expect it is all the push they need to play well.
LONGSHOT:
- Jason Day ($7,500) – Groundhog Day! Or I’m just too damn lazy! For $300 less, I’ll just leave my comments here: What?! Day can’t be a longshot! He’s won a Major! J-Day is also not the same J-Day as 5 years ago! Hell, two years ago! He’s sometimes a longshot to finish, let alone place in the Top 10. Not sure why, but I think he will this week!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Will Zalatoris
Patrick Cantlay
Chris Gotterup
(Leaves you $7,166 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Maverick McNealy
Adam Scott
Mark Hubbard
(Leaves you $7,966 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 35% Key Stats/15% Course History:
(V) = Value at $8,000 or less
- Patrick Cantlay
- Tony Finau
- Max Homa
- Cameron Young
- Scott Stallings (V)
- Keegan Bradley
- Kevin Kisner
- Adam Scott
- Maverick McNealy
- Mark Hubbard (V)
- Taylor Pendrith (V)
- Cameron Davis
- Chris Kirk (V)
- Will Zalatoris
- Adam Hadwin
- Matt Kuchar (V)
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim (V)
- Kevin Streelman (V)
- Cameron Tringale
- Davis Riley
There is a lot of value this week in the statistical analysis, but don’t get so focused on it that you ignore the $8,500 to $9,500 range.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!