THE OPEN CHAMPIONSHIP
If I could stop tournaments on Saturday the last two weeks, I’d be about $5K richer. But, that’s DFS Golf and it’s a 4-day sweat!
The Scottish Open was a good lead up to what we will see this week – that is if you get up early enough! The Open is one of my favorite events to watch. Not sure if it’s because how such a simple looking course can be so punishing or if it’s that I really want to play links golf in Scotland! Bucket list item!
General Description: St. Andrews! That is all! No more information necessary! The birthplace of golf in many peoples’ opinions. However, if you want to get technical:
- Par 72 that plays between 7,300 – 7,350 yards
- OVER 100 bunkers to deal with and they aren’t your every day bunker. Some of them are just like a hazard and are, quite simply, penalizing and require a backwards shot.
- Wide, undulating fairways that should be – I said should be – easy to hit. However, weather can make it difficult and flat lies are, well, not the norm.
- HUGE greens! Proximity will be important because some greens can make lag putts seem the same distance as some wedge approaches. I kid, but they are BIG!
- WEATHER WILL BE A FACTOR! I say that, but the Scottish Open announcers said it appears to be good from an outlook standpoint from Sunday. Still, weather can pop up at any time on coastal links courses.
- I’ve never been one to focus on stacking tee times based on weather, but keep your eyes on it. If weather appears to be moving in on Thursday afternoon/Friday morning, the morning tee times on Thursday will be more favorable.
TEE TIMES are: A.M. Thursday / P.M Friday
P.M. Thursday / A.M. Friday
With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order):
- Shots Gained Approach (Proximity)
- Shots Gained Around-the-Green
- Shots Gained Putting
- Three-putt Avoidance
Again, this week, the field is pretty loaded so you will be able to get some decent plays in the $7K – and even high $6K – ranges so you can probably get 2 or 3 of the top guys in a lineup.
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
- Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
- NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
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- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
REMEMBER:
In reality, you don’t need me to tell you who to play and not play in the higher range. These guys are priced this way because they are playing well and Vegas thinks they will win. Now, of course, you can’t get them all and they all can’t win. So, I do my best to give you the guys I will use the most – just don’t think I’m excluding the rest of them.
Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – Let’s see how many of you read last week’s article. Same price and, quite possibly, the same result! Hasn’t played The Open at St. Andrews, but has made the cut every time he’s been here with two Top 20s (including a T2 in 2018).
Rory McIlroy ($11,100) – You simply cannot argue with Rory’s performance in The Open. Additionally, you can’t argue with 6 Top 20s in his last 6 events – which includes 4 Top 10s with one Win. Plus, with pricing the way it is, the price-tag isn’t as ominous. I think he has extra incentive to win to keep someone from the LIV Tour from winning.
Dew Sweepers:
Jordan Spieth ($10,000) – Going with his history of play on links courses. He played them well even when he wasn’t at his best. Right now, even if he isn’t at his best, he’s damn close!
Shane Lowry ($9,300) – Soooo many guys to pick from in this top tier. But, as we saw last week, high prices don’t necessarily mean made cuts. I’m not off Scheffler ($11,000), Rahm ($10,800) or Fitzpatrick ($9,700), but I’m just leaning a little more towards a lower priced guy that, well, is having a pretty damn good year!
Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) – I like him too!
$7,500 to $8,900
Brooks Koepka ($8,500) – One of the LIV Tour villains! Brooks tends to love that roll almost as much as Patrick Reed. Normally, at least as of the last couple years, I tend to stay away from Brooks simply because you never know when he’s interested. But, this week, it’s a Major and it’s a Major where he’s had 4 Top 10s in his last five attempts including a T10 here in 2015. He and Rory in the final group on Sunday would be AWESOME!!
Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) – Again, has never really lived up to the expectations when he first entered the professional golf scene. Hasn’t been a flop either. He’s English! He can play links golf! And he probably isn’t bad for a Saturday or Sunday Showdown entry either with his ability to throw out some really low numbers if (I mean WHEN) he makes the cut.
Dew Sweepers:
Tony Finau ($8,400) – We haven’t heard much from Mr. Finau as of late. He’s played The Open five times and his lowest finish is T27 – others are 4 Tops 20s (which includes 2 Top 10s).
Max Homa ($7,900) – “West Coast” Homa has transferred his game throughout the U. S. Now, I think he transfers it worldwide. I’ll just leave what I said last week here again this week!
Also, like last week, there are plenty of other guys in this range that are absolutely playable. Remember, it’s Golf DFS and I can’t write-up all 65 guys that I think make the cut. In this range, you can also consider:
Sam Burns ($8,900) – not much Open history, but he’s playing better than ever.
Louis Oosthuizen ($8,800) – He hates me! If I play him, he’ll withdraw! But, The Open is his “jam” and I have to do it. Oosty will probably be on the first on second page of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Tiger Woods ($7,500) – This is just a “hope he plays well” pick. I’d really only use him in one, maybe two, lineups depending on how many you do.
$7,000 to $7,400
Still risky, but this course favors even the guys in this range.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,300) – He saved my ass two weeks ago! When he’s made the cut (4 of his last 6), he’s Top 20. He’s had two really good weeks so it should translate.
Ryan Fox ($7,100) – His last ten events: T47-2nd-3rd-Cut-2nd-54th-T2-T8-T9-T15. Also, made 4 of 5 cuts at The Open. For this price, risk vs. reward leans a lot towards reward!
Dew Sweepers:
Sahith Theegala ($7,100) – No Open history, but damn this guy is playing well!
Thomas Pieters ($7,200) – Nothing spectacular about his history at The Open, but he’s made every cut. He has 3 Top 10s in his last six events. I don’t think his ownership will be high either. European players live for The Open too!
Under $7,000
Don’t want to go here just to go here, but, this week you can!
Keith Mitchell ($6,900) – He’s back to being consistent. He’s missed the cut in both appearances here, but did have a T36 and an all-around decent event last week on a similar type of course.
Emiliano Grillo ($6,700) – Too good of a player to be priced this low, but he’s struggled this year. He has now made 6 of his last 7 cuts and has two T12s at The Open (with 3 missed cuts sandwiched in between though).
Thomas Detry ($6,600) – Solid performance last week at the Scottish with 73-67-69-69. He makes cuts too! At this price, do you think you can get a win?
LONGSHOT:
- Joohyung Kim ($6,500) – Guess what? Until a month or so ago, I had no idea who this guy was. Then he played some PGA events. T17 (Byron Nelson), Missed Cut (PGA), 23rd (U.S. Open), and 3rd last week (Scottish). Similar course and he shot 68-71-69-67! Hell yes he’s in a lineup for me!
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Xander Schauffele
Patrick Cantlay
Matthew Fitzpatrick
(Leaves you $7,000 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Louis Oosthuizen
Tommy Fleetwood
Brooks Koepka
(Leaves you $8,033 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 35% Key Stats/15% Course History:
(V) = Value at $8,000 or less
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Matthew Fitzpatrick
- Shane Lowry
- Scottie Scheffler
- Cameron Smith
- Justin Thomas
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jon Rahm
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Tony Finau
- Max Homa (V)
- Jordan Spieth
- Will Zalatoris
- Corey Conners
- Ryan Fox (V)
- Collin Morikawa
- Viktor Hovland
- Talor Gooch (V)
- Thomas Pieters (V)
I realize there are a lot of good plays that I didn’t discuss. Hell, unless I talk about all 65+ guys that make the cut, I’m going to miss someone. If you feel in your gut that you need to play someone – DO IT!!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!