One game is starting early down in Miami (Braves/Marlins) and the Reds/Cubs are off on travel today after the Field of Dreams game last night. We will have no weather issues in the forecast for tonight and it’s cooled off a little bit around the league temperature wise.
With NFL pre-season starting up, my guess is MLB is saving their juiced balls for the playoffs and I like some unders tonight believe it or not. Even Yanks/Red Sox doesn’t stand out as a must own offensively. Then again, we do have Coors Field on the slate.
WEATHER
All Clear
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MAX SCHERZER
Max gets to draw a Phillies lineup that is potentially without Schwarber and that’s a big deal given how much damage Kyle has done to the Mets pitching this season. Mets fans are probably going to look back and realize that Max getting hurt was the best thing that could happen for them this season. He’s now in that mode that Max is usually in back in May but in August and with a big series on hand they’ll get what they paid for tonight from the Ace.
TYLER MAHLE
Mahle continues to be a reverse splits guy and being in Anaheim that helps since it plays better for lefties with the short wall in right. Ohtani is still likely to get on base against him but the Rengifo-Walsh-Stassi’s of the world are not. He should put up a 6 inning, clean game with 7 or more strikeouts today.
I prefer both of these guys over Carlos Rodon tonight but don’t have anything bad to say about Rodon if you opted to smash him in.
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TIER THREE GUYS
After Max and Mahle (which sounds like a new Family Comedy series coming out on ABC this fall every Thursday night) there’s a handful of optional picks who fall into the third SP category today that are less expensive on DK and actually could be just fine on FD too.
Mike Clevinger, has always had better success when he faces weaker teams and while young kids Joey Meneses and Keibert Ruiz are hitting well for Washington they still possess a lot of weak bats in this lineup. But Clevinger just feels obvious to me vs the Nationals, he will pitch well, but not dominant.
Same is true for Michael Kopech against the Tigers. I’ve been down this rabbit hole way too many times this season and I really don’t have any desire to watch Kopech go K-BB-BB-K-Wild Pitch-K and then not come out in the second inning because he stepped on a spider in the dugout, jumped up in fear and injured his head.
Jordan Montgomery getting to pitch in Busch Stadium is tempting and the Brewers are not exactly murderers row here. This trade from Monty leaving the Yanks to the Cards for Harrison Bader was very odd and smells like the type which could come back and haunt the Yankees. But the Cards do know Monty isn’t a 100 pitch guy and probably keep him at 80-90 pitches tonight which really makes him blah, which is exactly what he always is. Shoot… He should probably change his name to Harold Miner at this point.
You got the reference right? Please tell me you got the reference….
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THE DARKHORSE(S)
So without a definitive pick for the third arm, I am going to summon ‘The Darkhorse’ for this Friday night. We are looking for that longshot arm that is more contrarian than leverage against chalk. So we’re not looking to necessarily go against projected high scoring spots like Coors, and I’m not going to get cute with Lynch vs the Dodgers or anything like that. Tonight we have two guys who jump out to me as sleeper picks, both going against the ‘data’.
Jose Berrios should not carve up the Guardians. They don’t whiff much and something about AL Central teams going into Toronto always feels like they do well, but Berrios is coming off a rough start vs his former team and probably pitches much better today. Would you like to know what you and me both have in common with the Guardians? None of us have hit a home run this season off a curve ball from RHP. So hey, maybe it was YOU Cleveland and not Franmil. Just saying. Don’t think we see the 10K game from Berrios here, but wouldn’t that be the most unusual thing since nobody does that vs Cleveland?
My other darkhorse pick tonight is the one which will make your stomach turn on this Friday.
Domingo German is going to dominate the Red Sox. Ride, Domingo, ride…
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ASTROS
Alex Bregman, Trey Mancini, Jose Altuve
Adam Oller just isn’t good. In this era of Baseball if you can’t miss bats you’re going to struggle and he can’t miss bats, nor do the Astros miss the ball often at home. If Oller has more than 1 strikeout tonight I would consider that a success for him, he should get hit from all sides and the RH guys for Houston are the sharp plays (Bregman, Mancini, Altuve)
D’BACKS / ROCKIES
Zona and Rado in Coors on a Friday night in August. An annual tradition of 13-8 final scores where the lead changes with crooked innings about four times total. Nobody ever turns down free Beer do they? We have Seth Beer for only $2,000 projected to start along with a very affordable Christian Walker at 4100, sub 4k Alek Thomas & Antonio Senzatella on the mound. Fun times…. This game will deliver.
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Other Good hitting spots:
Mariners – Julio might return, which if I am not mistaken would mean the Julio-France-Winker-Haniger batting order would make its debut this season? That’s huge, they’re going to pop off very soon.
Padres – I hear there is something interesting in this game? Oh, Luke Voit vs his former team right? Oh, no, wait. Yes. Josh Bell back in DC. Of course!
Dodgers – Not the top 3 stars, although Mookie is an elite play today. Smith, Trayce, J.Turner – those guys would have to deliver
Blue Jays – Cleveland pen scares me off going heavy Jays
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CATCHER
- Gary Sanchez
- Will Smith
- Francisco Mejia
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FIRST BASE
- Christian Walker
- Josh Bell
- Ty France
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SECOND BASE
- Josh Rojas / Ketel Marte
- Jose Altuve
- Tommy Edman
- Josh Harrison
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THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman
- Josh Donaldson
- Manny Machado
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SHORTSTOP
- Jeremy Pena
- Corey Seager
- Jose Iglesias
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Juan Soto
- Charlie Blackmon
- Luis Robert
- Julio Rodriguez
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OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Yordan
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Jesse Winker
- Andrew Benintendi
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OUTFIELD – Value
- Mitch Haniger
- Trayce Thompson
- Alek Thomas
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- Alex Bregman – 3B – Houston Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
- Jeremy Pena – SS – Astros
- Christian Walker – 1B – Diamondbacks
- Trayce Thompson – OF – Dodgers
- Gary Sanchez – C – Twins
- Jake Cronenworth – 2B – Padres
- Luis Robert – OF – White Sox
- BONUS …………. Corey Seager – SS – Rangers
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CORE PLAYS
Max Scherzer
Christian Walker
Alex Bregman
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SP COMBO RANKINGS
- Max & Mahle
- Max & Domingo
- Max & Clevinger
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DEFINITE FADES
- Tony Gonsolin
- Yankees/Red Sox
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SECONDARY STACKS
- Mariners
- White Sox
- Twins
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BETTING PLAYS
Phillies/Mets Under 7
Mariners/Rangers over 8.5
Yankees ML
Padres/Twins ML Parlay