I heard more Vin Scully tributes on the radio today and I heard a quote which I have said before and always loved. It was “Don’t be sad that it’s over, Smile [Be Happy] that it happened”. I’m sure Vin wasn’t the one who coined this phrase, but I am now sure that is where I first heard it.
We move on to Thursday, which brings us a lack of A+ level pitching match-ups and an 8 game slate on DK with the STL/CHC second game of double-header being included there.
WEATHER
Well there is one weather spot we will monitor tonight as I am more cautious after missing the T-Storms in yesterdays article on the Cardinal game.
Houston at Cleveland – Doesn’t look that bad at game time so they can get this one started and make the game official most likely.
Tampa at Detroit – Similar deal here.
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Justin Verlander and Alek Manoah are the two biggest names on this slate. Verlander faces a Cleveland team who has only struck out 7+ times at home vs a RHP once this entire season and that was Dylan Cease in a day game where they eventually got to him as well. JV is good yes, but JV isn’t 12 strikeout good here.
Manoah had some arm issues in his last start and the Twins have too many LHB, I’ll pass big time on him.
Carlos Carrasco could see some ownership since the game is in New York and the Braves strike out a ton, but I have a couple Braves hitters I like as one offs which is why I am not touching him.
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JEFFREY SPRINGS
This might be the first time I have not only wrote up Springs but also wrote him up as the top optoin. Yes, the price on him is coming into play a little bit as he is a comfortable 7.1k on DK and 7.4k on FD and he isn’t the type of pitcher I normally run towards because of limited depth (not going over 6 IP) and just average swing and miss stuff.
The Tigers though aren’t exactly a team I would encourage stacking today and his heavery slider usage should get him a shot at 6 strikeouts today. I like Springs and the Rays to go into Detroit and take this one comfortably.
KYLE WRIGHT
Wright is our wild card sleeper today. Nobody uses pitchers vs the Mets (for good reason) but Wright is really not someone who cares who he is facing in 2022. He just goes out and limits damage from the opponent while getting outs. Outs are good, and outs wins slates like this.
NICK PIVETTA
I could pick out of a hat when deciding between Pivetta, Carrasco, Manoah and Verlander today but none of the others are getting the Royals who were hitting on the road and will come back to Kauffman stadium and put up 1 total run tonight. Pivetta can give us depth while also offering enough strikeouts taking care of the young Royals hitters like Melendez, Pasquantino and Pratto today.
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Sleeper Pitcher: Paolo Espino
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BLUE JAYS
A great park for hitting line drives if you are a RHB with warm temps and Sonny 1+ HR at home per game Gray on the mound. Gray isn’t going deep but the Jays are if you know what I mean, and they should get the lesser Twins relievers today as well. If Springer returns he is a master in this stadium and a core play.
WHITE SOX
Texas is starting prospect Cole Ragans. Like Cole Hamels he is a lefty and like Cole Hamels he throws a good change-up and like late in his career Cole Hamels he probably gives up too many walks and a homer tonight.
RED SOX
Warm night in Kansas City should help the team who won’t strike out much in Boston. Xander, Martinez and Dalbec will be a tough part of the order for Bubic to sled through.
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CATCHER
- Christian Vazquez
- JT Realmuto
- Willson Contreras
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FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu – Mr August
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr – Price Drop down to 5200.
- Bobby Dalbec – Value
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SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Jorge Polanco
- Josh Harrison
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THIRD BASE
- Yoan Moncada
- Matt Chapman
- Jose Ramirez
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SHORTSTOP
- Dansby Swanson
- Carlos Correa
- Xander Bogaerts
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OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Yordan Alvarez … Deciding between Alvarez and Tucker as the LiC play tonight is challenging on both fronts, so I went with the one who is a little overdue for a Thursday night double dong in his Airness.
- George Springer – GTD, but has HR in all but one road trip to Minnesota and many times multiple homers are involved.
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Eloy Jimenez
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OUTFIELD – Second Tier
- Dylan Carlson
- Randy Arozarena
- Kyle Schwarber
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OUTFIELD – Value
- David Peralta … He is a Tampa Bay Ray for those who missed that one. He might have missed it too so hopefully he made the flight with them.
- Jake Cave
- Nick Castellanos – Probably a big chalk play here at 3200
- Kole Calhoun
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- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Dansby Swanson – SS – Braves
- Yoan Moncada – 3B – White Sox
- Jose Abreu – 1B – White Sox
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Jake Cave – OF – Twins
- George Springer – OF – Blue Jays
- BONUS …………………. Xander Bogaerts – SS – Red Sox
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CORE PLAYS
One thing that stands out to me tonight on DraftKings is how many hitters are in that ~4200 to ~5200 range and just an overall lack of sub 4k hitters. This is another reason to skip over paying up for 2 pitchers tonight.
SP – Springs
OF – Springer if in, otherwise Teoscar
OF – Yordan
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BETTING PLAYS
Houston ML
Tampa ML
Toronto/Minnesota OVER 8.5
Dog of the day: Cleveland