Some people have been drafting since the Super Bowl, but then some people need help in this world. For the normal folk, we are now entering into the real fantasy football draft season and it’s time to look at who my targets are this yearr.
I don’t dive into giving full rankings of all players. You can literally get that for free just by going to various draft rooms, comparing where players are going and then scraping together the ADP over time (again, all free data). What matters is comparing who you should buy higher or lower than those ADP, which is what most people are “selling” when they tout rankings, only they really are only differentiating on 3-4 key players at each position. So lets highlight who my stand out guys either positive or negative will be this season at each position.
These are my targets. That’s what a draft list should be, not ranking every single player out there. Because you should NOT be considering drafting every single player.
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Quarterback
It seems every year I write the same thing and that is how everyone wants to wind up passing on QB and then we find out that those who are at the top of their leagues are the ones with the top Quarterbacks in most situations. Certainly last year if you had Cooper Kupp you were bypassing that rule of thumb but once again if you had Josh Allen, you were pretty likely to be there as well.
The theory is simple, QB is deep, so why spend. Well, Allen, who was QB1 finished at 27.9 FPPG, while Jalen Hurts who was QB10 finished with 22.9 FPPG.
If you compare RB1 Jonathan Taylor (20.8 FPPG) with RB10 Antonio Gibson (13 FPPG) it’s obviously a bigger gap. But how about comparing Gibson with RB20, Devin Singletary who had 10 FPPG, and obviously the gap isn’t as large. Where am I going with all of this? Simply that while you won’t be taking a QB in round one, there’s definitely no reason to automatically skip on that logic in rounds 2-4 where you can potentially land a certainty and end up waiting on your RB2 or RB3 picks.
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My QB This Year
For the record last year it was Herbert and Burrow, as I am always on the second year Quarterbacks, but this years class of Year 2 QB’s looks like it’s going to break that trend, so I am going away from that and I am going with a sure thing pick.
Lamar Jackson – Baltimore
The Ravens as a team are one which I am buying into, and although their WR group is definitely leaving me nervous I am banking on Lamar putting together a massive season in his contract year.
He has publicly stated that if he does not have a new deal by the regular season he will break off talks and play without one. Something that others before him have done, and typically they perform well when this happens. But even if he does land a new lucrative deal before the deadline, I welcome the Ravens with a stronger defense than their 2021 showing – putting the ball back in Lamar’s hands more – and I welcome Lamar to stay healthy and get back to his 7 TD averages that he had in 2019 and 2020.
Baltimore opens with three extremely tough games after their opener vs the Jets as they draw Miami, New England and Buffalo in weeks 2 through 4. However by mid point and late into the year Lamar and Baltimore should be running up the score against the likes of Carolina, Atlanta, Pittsburgh and even Denver & Cleveland games could be high scoring sneaky shootouts.
For where he is going in drafts (5th/6th QB), Lamar is the QB which I am more than happy to snag.
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The next three Guys I don’t mind this year
If you cannot get Lamar though it’s not a big sweat, QB is certainly very good and these are the next three whom I would be more than happy to have
Justin Herbert
The one player to take ahead of Lamar IMO. Sure Allen is fine too, but I would rather have Herbert with a worse defense and in higher scoring games most likely.
Joe Burrow
Should be one of the more consistent QB options. When you have Chase, Higgins, Boyd, Mixon and an improved OL we have an offense that’s going to move the ball every single week giving Burrow that 275 & 2 floor that makes him good enough.
Derek Carr
I’m all in on the Raiders making the playoffs. Potentially even winning their division.
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Three potential Backup Quarterbacks
Daniel Jones
If anyone gets a coaching boost it could be Jones. I’m not personally a fan of Brian Daboll like the rest of the world is, but Jones to Golladay is finally going to be a thing this season.
Justin Fields
He was the top pick for the year 2 breakout and then go back to being trash after that, but holy god his weapons are worthless around him.
Trevor Lawrence
I’m not pushing Lawrence heavy into the year two mold because year one was such an incomplete with the failed coaching experiment of Urban Meyer. But he has improved weapons and can only go forward more in year two.
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Three QB’s I am not touching unless it’s on auto-draft
Tom Brady
Putting his foot half way out the door, then coming back and now potentially leaving again. I have been riding the Tampa flop pick all off-season and won’t deviate.
Ryan Tannehill
Everything is going wrong for Tannehill. Big contract, big mouth and big potential QB behind him.
Matt Stafford
I think the arm is a real issue and the gameplan for Super Bowl defending champs always runs through the ground game.
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