Some people have been drafting since the Super Bowl, but then some people need help in this world. For the normal folk, we are now entering into the real fantasy football draft season and it’s time to look at who my targets are this yearr.
I don’t dive into giving full rankings of all players. You can literally get that for free just by going to various draft rooms, comparing where players are going and then scraping together the ADP over time (again, all free data). What matters is comparing who you should buy higher or lower than those ADP, which is what most people are “selling” when they tout rankings, only they really are only differentiating on 3-4 key players at each position. So lets highlight who my stand out guys either positive or negative will be this season at each position.
These are my targets. That’s what a draft list should be, not ranking every single player out there. Because you should NOT be considering drafting every single player.
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Running Backs
The trend of a lack of true valued depth at Running Back continues into this season. For comparisons sake, lets just go back to last year and review who the top 20 projected Running Backs were.
The top 10 included CMC, Cook, Henry, Kamara, Zeke, Chubb, Jones Taylor, Barkley and Harris
We can throw out CMC, Barkley and even Henry due to injuries, although Henry was at least dominant for a shot period. Among the others Zeke and Jones saw their usage get eaten into by other viable backs but the rest remained pretty solid with Chubb/Kamara missing some time as well, Cook missing his usual games and of course, Taylor is now the darling in everyones eyes.
Players 11 through 20 included Ekeler, Gibson, Mixon, Edwards-Helaire, Montgomery, Jacobs, Carson, Robinson, Sanders and Swift
Ekeler has jumped up after a huge season a year ago, but nobody else in this range moved up, in fact a good amount of them moved down and one of them isn’t even in the NFL anymore due to injury (Chris Carson).
And although we did see post 20 ADP RB’s doing fine and will see that once again, the reliability factor with backs is not what it once was. And with that reason, we no longer force in having two RB necessarily but more I want to make sure that I have RB ‘situations’ or hand-cuffs as some call them.
So for ranking the Backs, its going to fall into three categories. Who are my superstars, who are my situations to target and who are the guys that can emerge to take over.
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My Star RB This Year
For the record last year it was Herbert and Burrow, as I am always on the second year Quarterbacks, but this years class of Year 2 QB’s looks like it’s going to break that trend, so I am going away from that and I am going with a sure thing pick.
It’s Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
Yes, I am a die hard Saints fan and yes I have been on Alvin Kamara since I saw him break through in his first pre-season game. He is one of the most special football players we have in the game today and he is getting all the wrong treatment in drafts this far.
I desperately would love to see Mike Thomas, Chris Olave and a Jameis Winston lead deep ball attack thrive in New Orleans, but I think Kamara is going to be the one who stands out the most in the end. Here are a few elements which are not being discussed with Kamara as to why he should be a top 5 if not top 3 RB this season.
#1. He is not getting suspended.
Long term he has a lingering potential discipline action for his Pro-Bowl weekend club fight but the league has a policy which prevents them from handing down any player suspensions when the legal case involves some form of physical punishment unless we get video. In this case, only the Saints could suspend Kamara and they are certainly not about to do that and it has been six plus months since the incident happened and not a peep out of TMZ or any other source… The video isn’t getting leaked.
So the trial has been pushed back and back by both parties attorneys, a clear sign that the defense has privately said they will negotiate some settlement if the case is pushed out to beyond this season. Right now as it stands, the next court date is scheduled for end of Sept/early October, and that is just to setup preliminary legal stuff above my pay grade. He’s not getting suspended this season, rest easy.
#2. A year ago the Saints offense had a ton of problems.
The two biggest ones wound up hurting Kamara and they were unstable and injured offensive line play along with no deep ball threats. Once Winston went down the Saints ability to stretch the field was entirely lost and without Thomas the whole season they also had no WR who were drawing consistent double coverage. All this lead to teams cheating up in the box on Kamara and he rarely had 6 man fronts to work with, a look he had dominated in prior seasons.
The offensive line should be better on the interior. LG Andrus Peat is back healthy (for now) and RG Cesar Ruiz has been working with former All-Pro Jahri Evans and the early camp signs are very strong. If they can get something out of James Hurst or rookie OT Trevor Penning then this OL will once again be at the top and should be VERY strong in the run game.
#3. Pete Carmichael knows how to use RB’s.
Allow me to share with you the RB that Carmichael has worked with in his career and called plays for.
LaDanian Tomlinson
Reggie Bush
Darren Sproles
and yes, Alvin Kamara
The offensive system will be different and probably has a little more vertical aspects to it (only helping Kamara with more room), but is still going to flow through the backs and the Saints best player, Alvin Kamara.
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My Half Dozen Studs
These guys need no explanation, and I rank them in this order
Jonathan Taylor
Derrick Henry
Dalvin Cook
Javonte Williams
Nick Chubb
D’Andre Swift
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Two players you would LOVE to have as your RB2
Joe Mixon … The Bengals offense is going to be strong enough that you can have Chase and Mixon or you can have Burrow and Mixon. There’s not going to be anyone who is more consistent at 80+ rushing yards, 1 touchdown and a few catches for some yards than Joe Mixon.
Cam Akers … Health is a concern here early but in the past Super Bowl winners come out the following season and wind up running the ball more.
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RB Sleepers / Prime Backups
Isaiah Spiller
I believe Spiller will wind up ranking as the #1 back out of this class in three years.
Miles Sanders
Sigh…. Deep breathe. Alright, now listen. The Eagles are BUILT do destroy through their offensive line. They are BUILT to run the ball a ton. I don’t have a ton of faith that Sanders or any one guy becomes the guy here, but buying into the Eagles RB situation is a must.
Kenneth Walker
Seattle is going to be horrible and in time he should get more volume
Michael Carter
I don’t trust Breece Hall, who had lots of work on him in college and should have been better than he was a year ago as well. Look for Carter’s talent to find a way to get him involved, you might have to stomach a rough first month but he will pay off.
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Additional RB Targets / Late Round Guys
Buffalo – James Cook
Washington – B.Robinson
Baltimore – JK Dobbins
San Francisco – Mitchell/TDP
Houston – Dameon Pierce
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Players I am avoiding or trying to not jump to pick
Leonard Fournette
Najee Harris
James Conner
Breece Hall
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