WYNDHAM CHAMPIONSHIP
Well, I ran my mouth to Renner last week about how I thought my picks had been pretty good and, BAM, I miss completely on Finau. Honestly, I can’t beat myself up too much because a lot of the guys were still there on the weekend. It was just that the scoring was so ridiculous that 5/6 making the cut just didn’t, well, “cut it”!
I know I bitch a lot, but I actually must have enjoyed the articles because I frankly didn’t realize this was the last week before the FedEx playoffs until I looked at the schedule and saw the Tour Championship was in 3 weeks. If I recall correctly, this week will be our last cut with a full field and next week at St. Jude’s will be our last event this season with a cut. There will be a cut at St. Jude’s, but the field is limited to the Top 125 so more than half the field will make that 36-hole cut.
I’m feeling a little Dr. Seussian this week. In looking at the field before starting any research, I’m leaning towards a little poetry:
I do like that guy named “Im”, but
I also like that guy named “Kim”, but
Oh, wait, there’s two guys named “Kim” and
I’m in on that too, I am I am!
So, here’s the “gut call” before the analysis! I’m starting at least one lineup with Sungjae Im, Si Woo Kim and Joohyung (“Tom”) Kim.
Sedgefield Country Club is located in Greensboro, NC. Like last week, it is also a Donald Ross design. There are also a lot of guys in the upper end of the Top 125 that are taking this week off which is why we have Webb Simpson at $10,700 this week. I’m not saying he’s a bad player, but he hasn’t played like we would expect this year.
General Description:
- Par 70 that plays between 7,120 yards
- Quick Bermuda grass greens
- Smaller greens but not difficult to hit
- For some reason, hitting greens is more difficult from the rough even though it’s not thick and punishing – I blame that on smaller greens
With that said, key factors this week (in no particular order):
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green
- Driving Accuracy
- Shots Gained Approach
Remember, PGA isn’t a “positional” form of DFS and everyone qualifies for every position. It’s all about price and current form in my opinion. The format will be:
Each price range, I will give you my Top 2
- “Dew Sweepers” – two or three (or four in the Top Tier) contrarian picks that I think will be low owned…or I just have a gut feeling on.
- At least one “longshot” in the final price range – no Dew Sweepers.
- Two (or Three) “Cores”
- Top 20 in my statistical model for those of you wanting stats
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
Tiers (the ranges will fluctuate weekly based on pricing):
- $9,000 and Above
- $7,500 to $8,900
- $7,000 to $7,400
- Under $7,000
$9,000 and Above
As always, when I can’t decide on certain players I like to look at two things as my “tiebreaker” even when the field isn’t loaded:
- Current Form (CF) – if a guy is playing well, it’s reasonable to assume he will continue playing well. Golf is streaky and if a guy struggled on Saturday and Sunday the week before, I’m going to move him down.
- Course History (CH) – as I said, it’s streaky. If you’re playing bad, the thing that turns you around is usually a good lesson, time off, or a course that fits your eye.
I had to put 3 guys in this week because, even as leery as I am, you just can’t mess with a guy’s course history when it’s this damn good!
- Will Zalatoris ($10,900) – I’m going back again. He should play well here!
- Sungjae Im ($10,500) – Going a little with the gut and a little with this guys tenacity. I have not seen a guy play as much as he does and rarely have a horrible tournament. The Open was his worst so maybe he’s not a links golfer, but this isn’t a links course.
- Webb Simpson ($10,700) – I hate the price, but I love the guys course history here! From 2021 going back to 2012: T7-T3-2-T2-3-T72-T6-T5-T11-T22!!! I can’t refute that! Now, current form is 3 missed cuts in his last 5 events….ugggh!!
Dew Sweepers:
- Tyrrell Hatton ($9,400) – I like him and Adam Scott at around the same price, but I trust Hatton more this year. Scott was T2 last year and I think he is playing better now. It always comes down to how a guy putts and Hatton is more consistent since Scott is T125 in that category in his last 16 rounds.
- Harold Varner III ($9,000) – All three names in the “Dew Sweepers” are viable this week. But, something tells me that it has to be Hatton, HVIII, and Scott in that order of preference. This just strikes me as a tournament where Varner could be on the first page of the leader board come the weekend.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Si Woo Kim ($8,800) – I’m not backing away from my gut this week. I’ve done that the past few weeks and missed out. Si Woo has a T14 and a T15 in his last two events and, much like Webb, his last five appearances here have been T2-T3-5th-Cut-Win!
- Joohyung (“Tom”) Kim ($8,600) – I’m not really sure why they call him Tom. I’m also not sure why I like this guy so much that I’ve played him every week he’s played on the Tour since the U. S. Open. Well, I do know it was because no one knew who he was early on, but that’s definitely not the case now. He was also priced a lot lower then too! For a balanced lined up, a Kim-Kim start isn’t bad at all.
Dew Sweepers:
- Denny McCarthy ($8,900) – Probably one of the best putters on Tour. My only caveat with him is that his current form is Top 10 or Missed Cut. He does have good course history here, T15-T9-T22-T36, so I’m leaning towards the potential for a Top 10 instead of a missed cut this week.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,400) – He performed well in Florida swing on Bermuda greens and, frankly, he’s a damn good player.
Others: Rose ($8,000), Poston ($8,200), & Stallings ($7,800)
$7,000 to $7,400
There are so many viable plays for a balanced lineup between $7,500 and $8,900 that I think you need to go here only if you think you need the top guys.
- Tyler Duncan ($7,100) – I’m never as comfortable with him as some of the other touts I see who like him on tight courses. But, I also can’t argue with his accuracy. He’s made three straight cuts and, as we say, that’s what you want here. Top 20s are bonuses!
- C. T. Pan ($7,400) – I’m taking last week as an anomaly! He typically plays well here.
Dew Sweepers:
- Greyson Sigg ($7,100)
- Russel Knox ($7,200)
Under $7,000
Smile when you pick a guy in this range this week! Hide the utter fear that you know you have little chance of 6/6 because you had to have Webb, Will, and Corey.
- Chesson Hadley ($6,900)
- Hayden Buckley ($6,900)
OK, so I took both of them here last week too! If you want a couple others:
- Rory Sabbatini ($6,900) – 4 Top 10s here is his last 6 appearances
- Michael Gligic ($6,800) – I can’t send “Gilligan” to the island yet. He crushed a couple of my lineups last week, but you need a short memory in DFS sometimes.
LONGSHOT:
- Callum Tarren ($7,300) – Not sure what it is about this guy that I like. He has 4 Top 25s in his last 5 events. As I’ve said many times, weeks like this with somewhat weaker fields, sometimes bode well for guys who just want a win! Maybe?
No more fades! I’m going with the positive. Here are some potential “Cores” to build with:
CORE #1 (top heavy):
Will Zalatoris
Adam Scott
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
(Leaves you $7,166 per golfer)
CORE #2 (balanced):
Si Woo Kim
Joohyung (Tom) Kim
Justin Rose
(Leaves you $8,200 per golfer)
FOR THE STATS NERDS AMONG US:
TOP 20 using the model I utilize with 50% Current Form/ 35% Key Stats/15% Course History:
(V) = Value at $8,000 or less
- Sungjae Im
- Shane Lowry
- Billy Horschel
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim
- Harold Varner III
- Brian Harman
- Corey Conners
- Adam Scott
- Si Woo Kim
- Denny McCarthy
- Will Zalatoris
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout
- Kevin Kisner
- Taylor Pendrith
- Mark Hubbard (V)
- Justin Rose (V) – did you ever think he’d be “value”?
- Russell Henley
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Aaron Wise
- Webb Simpson
You see my why I’m not “all in” on Webb even with his history. There are a few big names this week, but I’d look for someone in the $8,200 to $9,200 range to be contending on Sunday. Zalatoris wants his first win so he will grind because that gives him momentum going into the Playoffs.
Weeks like this are great because I don’t feel like I have to have guys in the five-figure range. Weeks like this suck because you can’t get rid of the feeling that the five-figure guys will dominate this type of field. They won’t!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!