Welcome to October College Football. We are blessed with five full Saturday’s this month and even more blessed to have a bunch of games that should be very competitive on this slate.
Highest Totals
- Oklahoma @ TCU
- Wake Forest @ Florida St
- Alabama @ Arkansas
- Iowa State @ Kansas
- Michigan State @ Maryland
Tier II:
- Texas Tech @ Kansas St
- Oklahoma St @ Baylor
- Kentucky @ Ole Miss
- Purdue @ Minnesota
Tier III:
- Texas A&M @ Mississippi St
- Michigan @ Iowa
- Navy @ Air Force
- Illinois @ Wisconsin
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Alabama vs Arkansas
You just know Gary D is pumped up for this one. He gets to display his full on Alabama homer’ism and just absolutely gush over Bryce Young as he leads Alabama to a win over the trendy upset pick of the week in Arkansas.
Sure the Hogs might cover the big 17 point spread because they can move the ball on offense, but that’s about the best they can hope for to remain in this game as we get an ole fashioned SEC shootout.
It’s not the easiest of ‘stack’ spots but this isn’t a big stack type slate either.
- Alabama – Bryce Young, Traeshon Holden, Jermaine Burton
- Arkansas – KJ Jefferson, Jadon Haselwood
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Michigan St vs Maryland
Look for a high scoring game just like when these two met a season ago. Maryland is due for a big explosion game.
- Maryland – Taulia Tagovailoa, Rakim Jarrett
- Mich St – Jayden Reed
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MY GUYS
BRYCE YOUNG – Alabama – $9,900
Arkansas plays fast enough and they give up enough lanes in the passing game for Young to easily hit value even at a near five figure salary. The Heisman Trophy Winner is the #1 QB in college in my mind and he should put that on display as he carries Alabama to a win in a high scoring shootout. I’m calling a 4 tuddy day for Young.
TAULIA TAGOVAILOA – Maryland – $6,800
It hasn’t been pretty for baby Tua (or his brother lately obviously) this season and he is coming off two less than great games — including a pathetic 13.28 score last time out. But this was a match-up that Maryland exploited a season ago when he had less weapons and now at home in College Park I would be SHOCKED if Maryland didn’t play their best game of the season against Sparty. Maryland has no right being an 8 point favorite. Lay the points and Fear the Turtle’s if you fade em.
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Also worth using:
KJ Jefferson – Arkansas – $6,700
Jalon Daniels – Kansas – $7,000
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MY GUYS
JIREHL BROCK – Iowa State – $5,400
Brock is getting 80% of the Iowa State RB workload and 88.3 YPG while facing an okay but not great rush defense in Kansas. The Cyclones should be smart to lean on the ground game to try and slow down Kansas — which is something nobody ever thought they would be writing up in a DFS article.
DEUCE VAUGHN – Kansas State – $7,200
Automatic Deuce Vaughn week once again. After two weeks of failing to hit the Deuce line of 20 points or more he should shred the slate with a 28.3 score this afternoon.
ERIC GRAY – Oklahoma – $7,600
The TCU rush defense has been an absolute dumpster fire allowing 7.2 and 13.4 YPC their last two games. Gray and a good Oklahoma offensive line should be able to carve holes and have a solid game. I do worry about OU spreading the ball around some but if he can get into the box he’ll pay off.
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ALSO LIKE
Kendre Miller – TCU – $5,200
Devon Achane – Texas A&M – $6,400
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MY GUYS
A.T. PERRY – Wake Forest – $7,200
While we don’t need Sam Hartman this week in my mind, we shouldn’t ignore their passing game. Florida State has been able to keep their opponents to just 165 YPG through the air but allow 61% completion rate. Wake Forest is going to drop 300 yards on them today and Perry should hit over 100 yards receiving.
RAKIM JARRETT – Maryland – $6,100
Jarrett is going to see 8+ targets IMO today and the Sparty are allowing the third highest completion rate on this slate. He should have a high catch game and with his big play ability that makes him a must own at 6k.
JAYDEN REED – Michigan St – $6,000
Good run it back option in the Maryland game.
TRAESHON HOLDEN – Alabama – $5,900 / JERMAINE BURTON – Alabama – $6,800
I have historically gotten Alabama WR wrong, so I am not going to try and sell you on one over the other, but with Bryce Young throwing 4+ touchdown passes, it hopefully won’t matter.
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VALUE
Braydon Johnson – Oklahoma St – $4,300
Evan Stewart – Texas A&M – $3,600
Ontaria Wilson – Florida St – $4,100
Evan Stewart – Texas A&M – $3,600
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
This is the opposite of the Friday night slate in that RB and WR are deeper than the QB spot. However that doesn’t mean we’re back to fading QB in the Super Flex automatically because I believe you take a shot on a big $ QB to win things today and IMO that’s Young.
They are very balanced today, but if I had to rank them they would be as such for DEPTH…
- Running Back
- Wide Receiver
- Quarterback
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CORE BUILD
QB – Bryce Young
RB – Deuce Vaughn
WR – Rakim Jarrett
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BETS
Oklahoma -6
Maryland -8
Oklahoma St +2.5
Alabama/Arkansas OVER 61