The MLB post-season is here and we have a new era beginning now as there are three Wild Card teams in each league which gives us four three game series to start things off.
This Friday is now one of my new favorite days of the year, replacing what historically was four Divisional Round games being played on the first Friday in October. Now this will be four Wild Card games being played all day long with your favorite cold beverage, nice warm food and all day Baseball on T.V.
To begin things, we start with looking at who I believe is going to win each round and who you should place league winner and World Series bets on right now.
I will have a Dongers Club article that outlines the picks for any 4 game slate throughout the playoffs, which obviously won’t be many and then in Discord I will have picks and on special days maybe a special 3 game article. Feel free to hit me up on Discord or Twitter for my thoughts if you want them (or if you want to just fade).
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What wins in the playoffs?
Historically I value teams who have two things in the playoffs. A defined and quality bullpen and a defined lineup with preference on teams having a CORE 7+ hitters who start every game over the platoon teams.
With this format, the first round is the only one which really changes as those are three game sets which are all played in the home teams ballpark. I think the right strategy in those series is for teams to prioritize winning that first game as if it was a single elimination spot. You can increase the leverage spots in game two by doing this and so the team who top to bottom is better should win game 1 and thus sets up better importantly for game 3 if necessary.
The teams who have a bye will have a layoff and that’s a concern for them coming out in that first game more than usual. In prior years there would always be a series on each side where both teams had equal layoff, and now all four teams getting a BYE will be facing a team who is coming in having played games. The advantage is for the team who played games as their hitters won’t be rusty and they are already up to speed for the playoff atmosphere IMO.
Don’t be shocked if a team goes on the road and wins in the Wild Card round and then wins game 1 in the Divisional round as well.
For full disclosure here are the teams remaining who I have futures bets on, most of these were done a long time ago.
- Mariners to win AL
- Phillies to win NL (I was drunk)
- Padres to win NL
- Padres to win World Series (Was before the Soto trade and before Tatis news)
- Cardinals to win NL
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American League (Odds to win the AL Pennant)
- Houston Astros (+175)
- NY Yankees (+205)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+550)
- Seattle Mariners (+1000)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+1000)
- Cleveland Guardians (+1200)
Cleveland is an interesting bet. If your Sportsbook is generous with cash out options on futures bets (some are, some arent) then they have to draw some serious consideration. The Guardians play well at home and have one of (if not the) best Bullpens in the American League. Their starting pitching is strong enough up front as well that they can go all out and win game 1 against Tampa Bay. I like the Guardians to advance in round one and they would then draw the Yankees and I am confident Terry Francona can have his team prepared against the team with the most pressure on them in Baseball.
The Jays/Mariners series should be the best first round match-up and you have two LOUD fan bases which will present instant drama in this 3 game set in Toronto and it’s a shame it can’t be a five game series with games in Seattle as well. Although the Mariners have the better pen and Eugenio Suarez probably homers twice in Toronto, I don’t see any reason for us to consider either team to advance in the second round past Houston. Especially since Houston owns Seattle and will shut down the Jays if they get them.
So this all leads to an AL Championship Series that is Houston vs New York/Cleveland in my mind. Your +1200 ticket on Cleveland would look mighty fine going up against Houston for a few minutes before it busts, so be prepared to cash that one out and let your Houston Astros +175 ticket just ride.
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National League (Odds to win the NL Pennant)
- LA Dodgers (+170)
- Atlanta Braves (+230)
- NY Mets (+450)
- St. Louis Cardinals (+950)
- San Diego Padres (+1200)
- Philadelphia Phillies (+1300)
Welcome to the chaos that is the National League. Unlike the American League, we have a lot of veteran presence on the senior circuit side. To me, there is more chaos likely with veteran teams than the younger teams where it’s going to be just one team that gets hot late and marches on.
We are not touching the Dodgers at +170. I know they had a fantastic regular season, but when you are in a division with the Giants, Rockies and Diamondbacks you are going to win a ton of games. I simply do not like what I have seen from the Dodgers bullpen to trust them to instantly be prepared to do it in the playoffs.
I also hate teams who are heavy loaded on one portion of their lineup and the Dodgers not named Smith, Freeman, Trea and Mookie just haven’t been doing it all season. Sorry, Dodger fans.
I also kind of think Atlanta would have been better served with a scenario that had them not getting a BYE. Their bats finally woke back up and with a proven rotation and stout bullpen this team was deep and ready. Had Strider not suffered a late injury they would have had the perfect pitching to win a three game series 2-0 and then go into LA or NY and win… Now they are ripe for the picking.
Fortunately though for the Dodgers and Braves, all the other teams look like a frog with warts coming into the playoffs and nobody has any confidence in any of them to beat Atlanta or the Dodgers.
Which is exactly why two of them will beat Atlanta and the Dodgers
The Mets playoff hopes hinge upon Starling Marte. I remember thinking during the season how it was amazing that Marte had stayed healthy and his contributions to the Mets lineup made them an elite offense. Well, look who got hurt at the worst possible time. If he comes back, the Mets are legit dangerous. If he doesn’t, good luck to Buck Showalter here to not screw things up when it’s inevitably the 7th inning of game 2 and they are down 1-0, Max is at 107 pitches with two men on and 1 out in a game they are leading 2-1 as Josh Bell comes to the plate.
When the Phillies offense gets hot, they are elite. Unfortunately their offense getting hot isn’t something I forsee but they are lucky to draw a series with the Cardinals that is NOT in their home park where Arenado and Goldy would just absolutely destroy everything.
That said, it smells like a Cardinals season, it looks like a Cardinals season, and by golly the Cardinals can win a three game series with the best of them.
If the Mets can make it to the World Series, they will win it. So no point placing a pennant futures bet on them when you could do the World Series winner bet.
The winner of the Cardinals/Phillies series would go into Atlanta. Both teams can beat Atlanta in a five game set because it would need to be offense in the first two games and I am banking on the Braves bats going cold with days off and losing those spots.
If the Mets can beat the Padres, they are the team to beat the Dodgers. I am not confident that the Padres know how to beat the Dodgers yet.
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Official Bet Cards
- Astros to win AL (+170)
- Mets to win World Series (+850)
Longshots:
- Cardinals to win NL (+950)
- Guardians to win AL (+1200)
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