Here’s your weekly menu of Saturday – Main Slate CFB Games to enjoy with some notable injury spots to monitor…
Noon Window:
- Minnesota at Nebraska
- North Carolina at Virginia
- Tulane at Tulsa
- Ohio State at Northwestern
- Kentucky at Mizzou
- Florida at Texas A&M
- Texas Tech at TCU
3PM Window:
- Baylor at Oklahoma
- Oregon at Colorado
- Syracuse at Pittsburgh
- Garrett Shrader is questionable and also a terrible play, move along…
- UCF at Memphis
- John Rhys Plumlee is GTD. I really think he plays
- Oklahoma State at Kansas
- Spencer Sanders is highly Questionable for Oklahoma State along with half the other skill position targets.
- Penn State at Indiana
And at 3:30 PM on CBS …
- Tennessee at Georgia
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TENNESSEE at GEORGIA
In 2019, Joe Burrow and the LSU Tigers took the SEC and College Football by storm as they ran wild through everyone within their path to a National Title. But before they went in and dominated the SEC Championship and National Championship games they had an early November trip down to Tuscaloosa where they had to deal with the mighty Alabama Crimson Tide, who were coming off a National Championship themselves and everyone was like – okay, yeah, but this is the real test for LSU…
LSU kicked their ass.
I bring this up because if you took a photo of that game and this weekends game between Tennessee and Georgia and asked someone to identify the differences the only response is …
Hendon Hooker might not be Joe Burrow and the combination of Cedric Tillman, Jalin Hyatt, Bru McCoy and Jabari Small might not quite be JaMarr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Terrance Marshall and Clyde Edwards-Helaire… But the energy, the magic and the big nuts that the entire Vols program has right now is eerily similar.
Yes, I believe that Tennessee is going to go into Georgia and cover the 8.5 spread.
Yes, I believe that Tennessee is going to go into Georgia and win.
Yes, I am stacking this game.
No, I do not know who the hell is going to guard Brock Bowers for Tennessee either
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I am not quite sure why I am even bothering to mention other games but I guess we do gotta find some other things to recommend just in case….
NORTH CAROLINA at VIRGINIA
Part of the reason I am just pushing the chips in on the Vols vs Bulldogs is because a lot of other good games have issues in them. The issue in this game is mostly that it’s just bad teams.
UNC’s going to just have to rely upon the Maye-Downs-Green passing show while Virginia should be able to get the ball to Wicks and Thompson and let them do damage. I think UNC just turns it over to Drake Maye and lets him do his thing which immediately means that Josh Downs is a factor here even at a high price point.
UVA is a spin the wheel situation but you’re going to need a Cavalier for sure. The most likely options are Wicks and Thompson with Thompson being my preferred choice to score.
Virginia RB Xavier Brown could be a difference maker at just $3,200 if he gets some more touches in an un-stable backfield, but really nothing more beyond an extra game stack leg.
Stack:
- QB: Armstrong (UVA)
- WR: Thompson (UVA)
- WR: Downs (UNC)
- S-FLEX: Maye (UNC)
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UCF vs MEMPHIS
Assuming JR Plumlee Plays …
Early morning the weather is going to be Rainy and Windy but it should clear out by the time they kick off at 3:30 PM. This is one game to keep an extra eye on during the late window as John Rhys Plumlee has put out two stinkers in his last two games (injuries didnt help) but draws a team who he should be able to find Ryan O’Keefe with plenty.
I’m not really sure where Memphis gets consistent production from unless Seth Henigan is rushing two touchdowns in, something he has not done all season despite having double digit rush attempts in each game.
UCF has a good defense, but I wouldn’t be shocked if this was a back and forth game.
- QB: Seth Henigan (Memphis)
- QB: J.R. Plumlee (UCF)
- WR: Ryan O’Keefe (UCF)
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FLORIDA vs TEXAS A&M
I really like the Aggies being at home and we can easily get value from Achane ($5500) and Muhammed ($4700) to justify going both while pairing them up with Anthony Richardson from Florida — who has been up and down a lot and is due for another up game against a defense allowing a lot on the ground.
- QB- Richardson (Fla)
- RB- Achane (A&M)
- WR- Muhammed (A&M)
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Spots I am a little shy on ….
Texas Tech at TCU: Not a great passing match-up for either side and until Texas Tech decides to consistently use SaRodorick Thompson I can’t really buy into anything with them. TCU -8 feels off, should be -14 but then that two score spread could also be the death trap for a backdoor Texas Tech cover. This is a noon game, so I’ll ignore Duggan and move on.
Oklahoma State at Kansas: A month ago this would have been the best game here. But injuries on both sides with question marks at QB and Oklahoma State’s defense needing a get right game have me fading
HENDON HOOKER – Tennessee – $8,000
Three passing touchdowns, a fourth rushing and less than 4% ownership on the best DFS Quarterback in the year of 2022? Yes, that’s where we begin this week.
STETSON BENNETT – Georgia – $8,600
Staying in the same game, Bennett’s price is way more than I was hoping for this week. He’s got the best player on the field at his disposal in Brock Bowers, so a correlation there is a must.
BO NIX – Oregon – $9,600
I look at Nix each week at the top of the rankings and say, yeah but do I really want to keep paying for Nix at that price when they’re going to win easy? The answer each week winds up being, yes. He’s clearly going to continue piling up stats to try and garner Heisman votes and now gets to pad them even more against the Buffaloes who allow opponents to rush for 253+ yards per game on them. If Nix isn’t posting up a 35+ point performance today then it means his RB did damage, so choose wisely here.
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Honorable Mention on any other week …
$8,300 – John Rhys Plumlee – UCF (I think you can get the exposure you want here through O’Keefe)
$7,100 – Brennan Armstrong – Virginia
$8,200 – Drake Maye – North Carolina
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DEVON ACHANE – Texas A&M – $5,500
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It’s curious that the price remains super cheap while drawing an extremely good SEC rushing match-up against 108th ranked Florida’s rush defense. While he does work through the air just as much, his ground totals should go from 4 rushing TD to 6 this week. This is the largest gift from the DFS brainiacs at DraftKings ever.
TYJAE SPEARS – Tulane – $6,100
Tulane isn’t just good, but they’re good on the road as well. Spears is going to be in a funnel scenario against a good pass defense and he should carry the ball 20+ times in a game where the pace and tempo probably winds up screaming this is a ground it out game.
MOHAMED IBRAHIM – Minnesota – $7,300
When an elite college RB like Ibrahim gets on a roll like he is, there’s just no reason for me to continue to be blind and not consider him.
Throw in that his price is pretty damn cheap compared to QB & WR on this slate against the 115th ranked rush defense and it looks like we’ll get another 30+ spot from Ibrahim. He rushes for less yards on the road, but is still a sure thing for 100 & a touchdown.
TREVEYON HENDERSON – Ohio State – $6,400
In 3 of Ohio State’s last 4 games, Henderson has posted 4.88, 6.21 and 5.76 YPC averages. The ground game is working well for Ohio State and with their WR core being down Jaxon Smith-Njigba still they’ll give Henderson plenty of carries.
I look for Ohio State to lean on their stud RB this week who might fly under the radar despite being extremely cheap for his talent level. If Northwestern had any shot then Stroud and the WR would make sense, but I am banking on Henderson getting multiple touchdowns.
BUCKY IRVING – OREGON – $5,800
Take what I wrote above about Bo Nix and just copy/paste it here. Two scenarios help out Irving though as the rushing match-up is good and if Bo Nix is doing damage early then maybe Irving can do it late when they put the game away in the second half. And his price point to hit value is much easier to attain.
Honorable Mention …
JADEN NIXON – OKLAHOMA STATE – $5,200 and DEONDRE JACKSON – $3,400
By no stretch are these guys in the same tier as the group above but we could have ourselves a week to be looking for that sub 4k or under the radar play. Both are likely to get some work filling in for Dominic Richardson and Nixon being the Freshman could get another shot to take over the lead role here. I have a feeling the Cowboys believe their offensive line can dominate Kansas’ front and that could mean a big day for the ground game with Sanders out.
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CEDRIC TILLMAN – Tennessee – $6,100
We don’t just list the standard blah blah blah cash game type plays here at DailyAmbush. No sir. We find our mark and we call our shots. I am putting Tillman up at #1 because this is the spot they’re really saving him for and he has had enough action coming into this game to play a full set of snaps. When you look at Georgia’s defense one thing is consistently standing out to me… They haven’t played jack shit.
Yeah, Oregon in week one when they were making their defending title mark and Oregon had no clue what they were doing yet. But since then they have just ran through a pretty down offensive SEC, I mean, Mizzou, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Florida? Seriously? None of those have a single weapon like Tillman, Hyatt or even Hooker at QB. Georgia’s a good team yes, but when you score on them, you do it through the air.
BROCK BOWERS – Georgia – $6,700
You can’t play in the UT-Georgia game and not use Bowers. There’s a sleeper second option on this Georgia team in Ladd McConkey, who I like a good amount for full game stacks, but lets not sleep on the machine which is Brock Super Bowers.
RYAN O’KEEFE – UCF – $6,600
As much as I am all over the UT-UGA game, there might not be a player I am locking in faster than O’Keefe. Consistency with the targets and a game which I see UCF having a lot of passing possessions equates to a guy at sub 10% ownership putting up a 20+ score. Crazy gut feeling says he score 3 times…
Keytaon Thompson – Virginia – $6,500
They’ll use Thompson on the ground more than Wicks, so he gets the edge here. I would correlate with Josh Downs from UNC who justifyably is a good pick this week but I can’t play 10 WR….
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Honorable Mention WR …
Moose Muhammed – Texas A&M
Jalin Hyatt / Bru McCoy / Princeton Fant – Tennessee with Hooker stacks.
Mitchell Tinsley – Penn State
Kobe Hudson – UCF
Marvin Mims – Oklahoma
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RANKING THE POSITION DEPTH
This is one of the more balanced weeks we have seen all season. Just gotta factor in that it’s a down year for STUD WR in college but there is depth there this week to match the other spots.
I think you can build any way (5 WR, 2 QB, 4 RB) this week.
- Quarterback
- Running Back
- Wide Receiver
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CORE BUILD
QB: Hendon Hooker (TENN)
RB: Devon Achane (TA&M)
WR: Ryan O’Keefe (UCF)
WR: Brock Bowers (UGA)
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BETS
Texas A&M -3
TCU -2 / UNDER 75 … 6 point Teaser
UCF -3.5
Tennessee / Georgia OVER 65
Tennessee ML