Welcome to the Week 10 edition of The Ambush. Can we dominate like we did last week en route to a $50,000 win? I sure hope so, and I hope you all continue to support and trust the consistency of the process here.
… Posted some Sunday Morning Thoughts ‘updates’ below in … GREEN
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I keep hearing people give horrible advice whenever I do happen to hear it out there on the interwebs or the radio. The latest is talking about how you cannot win without good QB Play. I just won five figures with Derek Bleeping Carr at QB. You can hit the nuts on QB and do great yes, but not hitting the nuts here doesn’t burn you because of how ownership and the roster construction works.
This week doesn’t look that much different. The QB projections and ratings overall are horrific across the board, it’s a dumpster fire.
THE AMBUSH PLAY…
TREVOR LAWRENCE
His time is now. Lawrence should have his full set of weapons (that matter) this week and with Travis Etienne getting consistent touches the balance that Jacksonville has on offense is trending them towards posting a few big weeks. Throw in that I believe Head Coach Doug Peterson has a little extra for the match-up with Andy Reid and we’ve got ourselves the right side of this top game of the week.
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I ALSO LIKE…
SAM EHLINGER
What if I told you that the Las Vegas Raiders have allowed a 70% completion rate on the season and 67% of the touchdowns yielded have come through the air along with giving up 25, 22 and 30 fantasy points to QB over the last three weeks?
There’s something we have to like about Ehlinger getting a third start and having some personal comfort finally without having to really look over his shoulder that he isn’t doing the right thing. Saturday is sure to just say go out and ball out kid because you’ve got nothing to lose.
And lord help the Raiders if/when The Longhorns win on Saturday night…
KENNY PICKETT
There is a strong chance that New Orleans loses this game 42-13 and I am not sure how they get to 13 but the path for the Steelers is going to be a mix of a random Jaylen Warren touchdown, a Steelers Defensive Touchdown and Kenny Pickett rushing for one and throwing for two.
The Saints are going to be without … you know what, the list is too long, let me sum it up…. Just about everyone… Basically unless New Orleans suddenly discovers a Wheelbarrow or a Holocaust Cloak they’re going to just suck. Anyways… maybe I’m wrong, I do hope they win.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
PATRICK MAHOMES
He is going to do GREAT this week. Why the hell are you taking Mahomes when you could take Kelce and then pair that with Lawrence who throws for just as much?
Just to clarify – I don’t hate Mahomes at all, I just think salary wise Lawrence will be better.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
DALVIN COOK
Has anyone ever pointed out that Kirk Cousins in two straight road games is just not that good? There’s a reason why Minnesota tends to lean on Cook when going on the road two weeks in a row historically and this is the first time under new HC Kevin O’Connell.
All the attention here is going to be on the Bills QB situation, Stefon Diggs and Justin Jefferson. But watch as Dalvin Cook and his brother get to face each other for the first time in the pro’s and Dalvin shows little brother how it’s done with a 170 yard rushing and 2 TD day.
Take us home Dalvin.
DAVID MONTGOMERY
A late addition to the article. The more I look at the Bears-Lions game the more we gotta trust the ground game and NON Justin Fields producing RB. WE are quickly approaching D-Montgomery win your fantasy league season and even with Herbert getting good run I would think we trust Montgomery against a really bad rush defense. He’s a top pick of mine on today.
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I ALSO LIKE…
JONATHAN TAYLOR
So Taylor continues to decline and decline and decline, but now we have him down at $7,000 with another scenario where the team says fuck it, just roll him out a hundred times and see what we can do. I have a ton more faith in the Colts than the Raiders this week.
SAQUON BARKLEY
He is in a good spot yes, but is very expensive and unless this turns into an out of nowhere shootout I don’t see Barkley having a 30 point game. You don’t need him, but you won’t hate him.
DARRELL HENDERSON
While I think Stafford is going to suit up, that’s more a move just to get a QB out there they can trust to run the offense and the offense is hand the ball off versus Arizona.
Just missed my cut … David Montgomery, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Nick Chubb, Jaylen Warren
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
DERRICK HENRY
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
AMON RA ST. BROWN
Brown shouldn’t have any restrictions either with his health or the Bears secondary. Goff isn’t great outdoors but you don’t need to do much here other than get St. Brown the ball as quick as you can with a high volume catch game.
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I ALSO LIKE…
ZAY JONES / CHRISTIAN KIRK / MARVIN JONES
I do not have any issue with the correlations with Lawrence and that includes Etienne as well.
DIONTAE JOHNSON
You do not want any part of George Pickens even if Pittsburgh drops the hammer on the Saints. Johnson should be the one drawing the extremely favorable coverage.
CHRIS OLAVE
Olave dropping 100+ yards and a score in a game they get blown out in feels just right.
Jarvis Landry back has me worried Olave’s ceiling is down a little bit.
COURTLAND SUTTON
Sutton or Jeudy? Very hard decision here, I do not see both of them having huge games, so I prefer the better talent in my mind which is Sutton.
AMARI COOPER
There isn’t a weirder game this week than Browns/Dolphins. Is it the RB? Is it the WR? Is it the TE? Who the hell knows but everyone thinks we have a shootout here and with that warm weather I can definitely see this game having some TD drives in it.
The Dolphins pass defense has struggled at times, but is still good enough to probably keep Cooper from blowing up. None the less, for $6500 on DK that’s a spot Cooper can do damage in.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
COOPER KUPP
Assuming Stafford DOES play. If he sits then oh my god Kupp is gonna have 80 catches.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
TRAVIS KELCE
It’s Kelce. Next question.
PAT FRIERMUTH
Saints are going to be HORRIBLE vs TE after being elite versus them. Injuries to OLB and Safety are really taking a toll this week.
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I ALSO LIKE…
EVAN ENGRAM
Pair with Lawrence only.
ROBERT TONYAN
Right back to the failed well last week. Rodgers throws 3 TD in a Packers win…
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
FOSTER MOREAU
Nah
KYLE PITTS
Oh damnit, he’s not on the slate? Well, what did he do on Thursday? Every TE in the history of football does well on TNF… Oh, he sucked? That’s a shame… Maybe because you shouldn’t have been drafting him higher than round 12 in fantasy.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
GIANTS
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I ALSO LIKE…
STEELERS
DOLPHINS
Rams/Cardinals … we have to consider both with the Rams being the preferred pick
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
VIKINGS
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting OVERLOOKED this week and why is it TREVOR LAWRENCE?
Cheap QB in a high total game.
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
Trevor Lawrence
Dalvin Cook
David Montgomery
Travis Kelce
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Question: Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE
DAVANTE ADAMS / JONATHAN TAYLOR
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Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Jaguars at Chiefs
Lions at Bears
Colts at Raiders
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
Colts/Raiders OVER 41
Packers ML
Steelers ML
Jaguars +9.5
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Question: Upsets Parlay(s)
Steelers + Packers ML
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