Welcome to the Week 12 edition of The Ambush.
WEATHER … A few games this week have rain (Washington, Carolina, Cleveland) but not really anything that has me extremely over thinking things with them.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
I do not see a scenario where there is a team that has a QB throwing 4+ touchdown passes, so if you roster someone who gets you 300 and 2 this week, you should be more than happy with that.
GENO SMITH (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,600)
I prefer Geno on DK
All sites and all formats, Geno checks out as the #1 Quarterback this week on The Ambush. No rain in Seattle, but a little chilly however the autumn wind is no Raider this week as they’re playing their back to back road game off a divisional overtime win. That win made a bad defense look good against a horrible Denver offense so lets not have a short term memory and forget how bad Vegas has been defensively. Seattle should have no problems running and throwing with Metcalf having a big advantage on Vegas DB’s.
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I ALSO LIKE…
JUSTIN HERBERT (DK: $7,000, FD: $7,900)
I prefer Herbert on FD.
The Chargers offense is designed to help mix a high completion % with shot plays and the Cardinals consistently let Quarterbacks have high completion % days. So we should see a pretty safe floor from Herbert having a good game with big upside for some vertical shots. Or the downside is that Ekeler winds up taking a hand off to the house from around the 24 yard line and we miss out on the touchdowns. But lets not be negative here, let’s be optimistic and see Herbert power his way to a 3 TD, 300 yard game.
Other guys who will be alright
- Joe Burrow – Cincy is gonna throw it all game long. Chase not quite being back yet though will keep him from going nuclear.
- Lamar Jackson – I am banking on passing TD not rushing TD
REVENGE of the BACKUPS???
This slate is going to feature Mike White, Kyle Allen, Sam Darnold, Trevor Siemian and Bryce Perkins … Should you be trusting any of these backups (yes, Darnold is technically a backup) this week? Not really. While I am normally in favor of not overthinking Quarterback I also see a ton of guys here who are just going into disaster scenarios. Mike White has the weapons and is facing a bad defense so yes he could pay off. Kyle Allen is someone I liked when he was in Carolina but this is not going to be a good spot for him. Darnold, Siemien? Nah. Perkins? He could rush for 50 yards, there is that… He probably also turns it over twice. They’re all ugly, if you are going this cheap, White and Perkins are the picks.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
TUA TAGOVAILOA
Miami’s defense has to play well vs Kyle Allen, right? One would hope and one would hope that the Miami rushing attack has a good game here as well, so all this adds up to me not expecting Tua to need to do it this week.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY (DK: $8,800, FD: $9,200)
The seas are flowing the trash into the Bay area this weekend and its all coming together to setup for a nice CMC game. I highly doubt that Deebo Samuel is going to suit up which removes a key red zone chip for the 49ers and New Orleans is getting healthy again at the outside CB position. Unfortunately for Saints fans, they are still down to nothing special at the slot corner spot and are still without OLB Pete Werner. Kaden Elliss has been great filling in, but he’s not Pete in coverage and thus they got ZERO bodies on defense who can hang with CMC in open space this week.
New Orleans is either pulling off a big road upset by 3 as the Niners look ahead to Miami next week or San Francisco blows em out by 30. Either way, I am backing CMC to have a huge game for San Francisco.
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I ALSO LIKE…
JEFF WILSON (DK: $5,900, FD: $7,700)
With Mostert ruled out (or doubtful) I can’t find any reason to sit here and attempt to be the smartest guy in the room with some bullshit like you should fade Wilson. Unless Miami is getting shutout for some odd reason he is going to hit 3x.
JAMES CONNER (DK: $6,600, FD: $7,000)
The Chargers rank 32nd in YPG to running backs and 27th in TD allowed to RB. The return of Kyler Murray should help Conner out just as much as people think it will help out DeAndre Hopkins. The difference is that Conner has the better matchup and he is much cheaper exposure to Arizona and is a nice correlation with a Justin Herbert lineup.
BRIAN ROBINSON JR (DK: $5,100, FD: $6,100)
A sloppy field in Washington means that the path swaps over to Robinson instead of Gibson. Washington is giving him enough run each week and I trust their OL to control the Falcons DL and allow Robinson to rush for a good 5+ YPC today.
I am taking Robinson over Rachaad White and Latavius Murray in the same price range on DraftKings but I wouldn’t mind going Robinson & White.
D’ONTA FOREMAN (DK: $5,500, FD: $6,700)
I know one thing for sure, the Panthers are not going to come out and pass at will on the Broncos. But the ground game has a shot to produce a valuable game from Foreman.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
JOSH JACOBS
Jacobs gave it all he had last week in Denver but left a couple times with a limp and appears to be possibly breaking down. He’s been too much of a workhorse for the Raiders and I have fears they dont even show up this week.
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
KEENAN ALLEN (DK: $6,100, FD: $7,300)
How is Keenan only 6100 on DraftKings? As noted above, you can throw with ease against the Cardinals who play the 2nd most zone coverage in the league. The theme this week appears to be loading up on the 4PM slate of games and I’ll make my #1 WR play from that selection of spots here as well. This should have a little Tyler Lockett in Arizona-esque feel to it this week with Keenan being a slate breaker.
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I ALSO LIKE…
DK METCALF (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,200)
It appears that DK’s pricing algo on WR this week was applied to the full week of WR because they have what should be the top WR on the slate priced like they are below Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, etc… Well, fine, we’ll take it because Metcalf is just too physical and too fast for the Raiders.
CHRIS GODWIN (DK: $6,000, FD: $7,000)
Remember Godwin? Yeah, it’s been almost exactly a year since he tore that ACL and now comes back after the BYE week to rest up a little bit and has been seeing 10+ targets in 4 of the 5 games before the BYE. Cleveland’s been gashed on the ground but this is Brady and this is him knowing that he has to get Godwin back to elite to have a chance at doing anything the second half of the season and the playoffs. Godwin is getting in the box tomorrow, take it to the bank.
TYLER BOYD (DK: $5,900, FD: $6,700)
I’m bummed that Chase isn’t quite back yet, but still optimistic about the Bengals going into this game with a pass heavy attack. You just don’t come out and run heavy vs the Titans and certainly not without Joe Mixon either. A high pass volume should help Boyd the most.
TREYLON BURKS (DK: $4,200, FD: $5,900)
You gotta make a stand on this game, either you believe in Henry coming off 10 days rest to run through Cincinnati or you are with me in thinking Tannehill tries to get revenge for the playoff game last season. I believe this game has lots of passing and shootout potential so look for Burks who has been coming on of late to have another good game at very cheap prices.
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More guys I expect to produce …
Each of these are okay DFS plays and sneaky Anytime TD scorer props.
- Christian Kirk
- JuJu Smith-Schuster
- Drake London
- David Bell (DK Value Only)
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
COURTLAND SUTTON
It’s week 12. Okay. Look. It’s also the end of November. Two things just aren’t going to fucking happen. I’m not going to get ripped in 2022 and Russell Wilson is not going to have a magical game in 2022. Alright? So lets just give it up and move on to 2023…
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
MARK ANDREWS (DK: $6,500, FD: $7,300)
Jacksonville is 21st in yards allowed to TE, and Andrews has had a while to heal up now plus Lamar and the Ravens are coming off a sleeper game in the cold last week and now go down to Sunny and clear Jacksonville. Andrews should have 7 for 120 and 2 TD this week.
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I ALSO LIKE…
BEER, STEAK, GOOD FRENCH FRIES
Play Andrews. But seriously, good fries are very underrated.
TAYSOM HILL (FANDUEL)
Play Andrews, but obviously I gotta tout Taysom, right? Well, Kamara was limited with an illness this week and the Saints are getting Trevor Penning back potentially for this game, so look for more jumbo OL scenarios where they try to continue to get Taysom involved as much as they did last week and he could easily have a strong rushing game against a tired Niners defense.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
NOT PLAYING MARK ANDREWS
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THE AMBUSH PLAY…
CHIEFS (DK: $2,800, FD: $4,900)
How are the Rams going to score at all? What is McVey really going to be able to come up with for them to produce? Sometimes we attack a bad offense and don’t get much because they just don’t do anything, but this really feels like a no brainer.
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I ALSO LIKE…
PANTHERS (DK: $3,000, FD: $3,900)
Denver is going to mail it in, not to mention this is an early start time for the Broncos on a shorter Holiday week? Yeah, Panthers D/ST scores.
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BE CAUTIOUS WITH…
JETS
I see lots of love for the Jets against a banged up Bears offense, but it’s still the Jets.
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AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS
Question: Who is getting OVERLOOKED this week and why is it CHRISTIAN McCAFFREY?
New Orleans is without their #1 and #2 players to stop CMC out of the backfield. Deebo likely out. Niners roll through CMC.
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Question: Favorite Core Plays On DK/FD for a Balanced Lineup
RB – Jeff Wilson
WR – Keenan Allen
TE – Mark Andrews
DST – Chiefs
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Question: Favorite Pay Up Player(s) outside of the Balanced CORE
CMC
Metcalf
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Question: Game Stacks of the week are?
Chargers vs Cardinals
Bengals vs Titans
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Question: Top Bets of the week?
Ravens -3.5
Bengals/Titans OVER 42.5
Panthers ML
Seahawks -4
CMC Anytime Touchdown
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Question: Upsets
Panthers
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Question: Theme of the week
4PM Slate has all the DFS production
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