Today’s Bowl Games
- Sugar Bowl – Alabama vs Kansas State
- Music City Bowl – Iowa vs Kentucky
- Semi-Final: Michigan vs TCU
- Semi-Final: Ohio State vs Georgia
No weather issues for these games.
Alabama (-7) vs Kansas State
Game Total: 57
Both Bryce Young and Will Anderson are playing for Alabama and all indications are they will be a full go, however I would be shocked to see Anderson play the full game and Young could get pulled too. That said, if Young gives us 60 minutes in the Superdome vs Kansas State he should put up a 25+ point outing today making him the favorable #1 overall QB for me.
Alabama is cleaning house at WR and you should expect some big moves here next season but for now we have some cheap options here and can pair JaCorey Brooks, Jermaine Burton, Isaiah Bond or Kobe Prentice with Young.
Kansas State is all Deuce Vaughn and vertical game, but Will Howard won’t get it vertical so take Vaughn.
Prediction: Saban wants this one badly despite his record in non Playoff games and will be glad to run up the score to prove his team was not a fraud this year. Alabama wins 37-20.
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Iowa (-2.5) vs Kentucky
Game Total: 31 … Yes. 31.
The best thing about this game is that they might just show replays of the all time great Music City Bowl comeback by Greg Ward Jr. Otherwise this game is not worth watching out of the four games.
We do not have word on who Kentucky will start at QB and it looks to be a revolving door with Destin Wade likely getting the start first. Sure, if you want to take a gamble on a sub 5k Quarterback as your Super Flex I get it on this slate. Monitor news before kick off here as the three options are
Destin Wade – They seem interested in getting him some looks this week. If you are looking for a donkey correlation, he has been training with Freshman WR Barion Brown. They have a connection worth taking a shot on in MME.
Kaiya Sheron – Started in October when Levis was injured
Deuce Hogan – Likely behind these other two but could see time late in the game if it’s not close.
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TCU vs Michigan (-7.5)
Game Total: 58
Now, we get to the good stuff. No opt outs of these games and this one is my preferred starting point among the two big games. I believe that TCU will hang with Michigan but the Wolverines are on a destiny machine to win the title this year.
Good news is that UGA/Ohio State is a higher total, bad news is that everyone is still gonna go here because of DK pricing. This is the game that should be high scoring and this is where I’ll start for a game stack among the two Semi-Final games.
- TCU: Max Duggan, Kendre Miller, Quentin Johnston, Taye Barber
- Michigan: JJ McCarthy, Donovan Edwards, Cornelius Johnson
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Ohio State vs Georgia (-6)
Game Total: 62.5
A virtual home game down in Atlanta for Georgia and yeah the surface here is suitable for this game going off, but it’s hard for me to pull the trigger on a contrarian Ohio State spot here. I dont think Georgia is gonna lose tonight but they will lose in the Natty.
Ohio State is tough in DFS because their QB-WR correlation is pricey in a tough spot and the main RB today might not even be in the DK player pool (Chip Trayanum). Either way, I’m not gonna expect Ohio State to do damage on the ground.
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Take value here and move on with stud RB and no easy value on the slate at WR? It’s gonna be the chalk path with McCarthy who I do not hate but also think we’re going to see him have a 20 point ceiling and probably get out done by Max Duggan.
Motivation is everything for Bryce Young, who was actually pretty damn good down the stretch and seems to be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Don’t sleep on the best QB coming out this year.
- Bryce Young (Alabama) – $8500
- Max Duggan (TCU) – $7900
- JJ McCarthy (Michigan) – $5900
- Destin Wade (Kentucky) – $4800 … This is entirely a value/punt play in Super Flex.
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RB Is top heavy and the most top heavy spot on the slate. You could easily justify that these three running backs are the best plays on the entire slate as we should get 20+ point games from this pool more than the WR room.
- Donovan Edwards (Michigan) … Barring injury, Edwards finds himself in position to be a must own at $6600. Yes, there are other good RB but that just means your FLEX and S-FLEX spots can be RB as well.
- Deuce Vaughn (Kansas State) … I would like someone in the Superdome staff to just take Vaughn and show him around in the locker room and tell him he has to claim he has a life threatening injury and should not be drafted so he can just remain in New Orleans in his pro-career. Would be nice.
- Kenny McIntosh (Georgia) … This is nowhere near Ohio State’s best team over the past 10 years. This one should be an easy Georgia win IMO and thus we have second half run it out and just need him to break off one big run to seal the deal
SLEEPERS
- Kendre Miller (TCU) … Miller always seems to show up when TCU needs him the most. Michigan was 2nd against the run but I tend to throw out the rankings when we get to the semi-final games. Big players have to show up, he is a big time player for TCU
TOP VALUE
- None
FADE
- Jahmyr Gibbs (Alabama) … Gibbs is someone I don’t envision the Tide over working today, with a deep RB room today, He is the odd man out.
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Now comes the fun – or not so fun – part of this slate. Lets break it down this way – going game by game on receiving options first. The players highlighted in BOLD with notes are the top overall plays I would consider.
Kansas State
- Malik Knowles – $5100
Alabama
- JaCorey Brooks – $6100
- Kobe Prentice – $4600 … To me this is where the slate should be won today. The Alabama depth at WR with Freshman looking to cement their status going into 2023 is key and they are both cheap and worth taking shots on.
- Isaiah Bond – $3500
Kentucky
- Barian Brown – $5200 … See above regarding pairing with Wade
Iowa
- Sam LaPorta – $4400
Georgia
- Brock Bowers – $6300 … Bowers is going to catch a 21 yard touchdown pass, he will tear up Ohio State over the middle today.
- Kearis Jackson – $3500
Ohio State
- Emeka Egbuka – $7500
Michigan
- Cornelius Johnson – $4800 … It’s a coin toss with these two and for 1k less lets take CJ
- Ronnie Bell – $5800
TCU
- Taye Barber – $5400 … Michigan’s defense is not stupid, they are going to focus heavily on Johnston and I see Barber getting open for a touchdown
- Quentin Johston – $6500
FAVORITE THREE WR: Brock Bowers, Isaiah Bond, Taye Barber,
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LINEUP CONSTRUCTION
QB & Value WR Pairing
3 Lead RB (Vaughn, Edwards top two)
BETS
Alabama -7
Kentucky/Iowa OVER 31
Georgia -6
Michigan/TCU OVER 58