NFL Week 15 – The AMBUSH

Week 15 – NFL Main Slate

THE AMBUSH PLAY

DAK PRESCOTT (DK: $6200, FD: $7500) … I have no problem if you said you wanted to go with T-Law on the other side in this game.  However, Dak not only grades out better but if you are on the same game script as me then you have him needing to throw it 40+ times as Dallas run game might run into their first trouble spot in a while.

Look for this to be a high scoring and competitive game and Dak is the one who rushes one in for the Cowboys while throwing for 300+ yards in a very competitive game.

I ALSO LIKE

MAC JONES (DK: $5000, FD: $6700) … You will notice a set of cheap DK Quarterbacks making my list here.  Jones though is the one who is likely overlooked the most of these cheap options.  New England finished their game in Arizona on Monday night and then went to Tuscon to practice for their upcoming game with the Raiders.

We have a questionable backfield as Rhamondre Stevenson was Limited on Friday at best and Damien Harris is OUT.  You think they’re gonna turn it over to more backup RB or tell Mac Jones to go prove himself against a bad Raiders team who is bottom in Comp % allowed?  Yeah, this is a Mac Jones vs Derek Carr sneaky shootout and the best 4PM game on the slate.

DESMOND RIDDER (DK: $5200, FD: $6500) … A mobile QB vs the Saints and making his first start.  I have sadly seen this play before and it’s gonna result in him being someone you can trust in DFS lineups.  This game should go over by halftime.

MITCH TRUBISKY (DK: $5000, FD: $6700) … I hope that Trubisky gets the start and not Mason Rudolph because I got no desire to use ole Rudolph even in December.  But the Panthers are due for a let down spot and should be inefficient on offense giving Trubisky extra possessions.  He’s a good punt/cheap QB option.

BE CAREFUL WITH

Patrick Mahomes – Easily could finish the game with just 2 TD, but yeah he could throw 5 TD as well.  Just a ton of variance while QB is a deep spot this week.  No reason to write him up.

THE AMBUSH PLAY

DERRICK HENRY (DK: $8000, FD: $8900) … You know what is great?  The Titans are still in control of the AFC South.  Mark this down right now, because the Titans are going to be the team that wins a first round playoff game which nobody wants to pick and they start by upsetting the Chargers this week.  This is another spot to run the ball 80 times and fortunately this time we’re facing a bottom 5 rush defense.

I ALSO LIKE

ALVIN KAMARA (DK: $6800, FD: $7600) … AK41 hasn’t had explosion games against the Falcons but New Orleans has th eirOL healthy for the first time all season and they want to run the ball behind that OL.  Kamara has just 5 touches rushing inside the 10 all season which is ridiculous and also a law of averages to change assuming Taysom’s rushes from the 30 aren’t going the distance.  Shit, I may just stack them together.

ISIAH PACHECO (DK: $5900, FD: $7600) … This is one of those games where the entire world assumes the Chiefs are going to destroy the lowly Texans and do such however they want.  And you know what, I don’t disagree.

TRAVIS ETIENNE (DK: $6000, FD: $7000) … Favorite run it back on the Jaguars side this week from a price perspective, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see Christian Kirk do well for the Jags too.  Dallas has given up 23rd most yards to RB so Etienne should have a solid ‘cash’ floor game.

NAJEE HARRIS (DK: $5700, FD: $6600) … If Rudolph takes the field at any point then Harris could wind up finishing with 150 and 2 scores.  Right now though its Trubisky so we temper the Harris train.

ZONOVAN KNIGHT (DK: $5300, FD: $7200) … I remember Knight too much from college so forgive me for not jumping on his schlong like every other tout in the industry because he happens to play for the New York Jets.  But it is a home game against the Lions and 5300 on DraftKings is pretty nice considering Zach Wilson is gonna hand it off all game.

BE CAREFUL WITH

Miles Sanders – Not a two week in a row guy.

Tony Pollard – WR & TE game for Dallas

Latavius Murray – I get the play, I get Conner on the other side.  I just have no interest in the game at all.  Sometimes you gotta cross games off.

Josh Jacobs – The Jacobs run is over, and all those fantasy teams and best ball teams that got into the playoffs with him for sure are going to run into a stone wall this week.

THE AMBUSH PLAY

MICHAEL GALLUP (DK: $4500, FD: $5700) … That price is very nice when you realize it allows to get Henry+Allen in the TEN/LAC game.  So yeah Lamb is equally good but this is about a balanced passing attack where my main focus is Prescott, so I prefer value at his pass catchers.

KEENAN ALLEN (DK: $6800, FD: $8000) … Is calling for a 13 catch game too bold?  Because I think Keenan Allen is going to catch 13 balls this week.

DIONTAE JOHNSON (DK: $5100, FD: $6600) … It’s a bird, it’s a plane, it’s Diontae Johnson catching his first touchdown of the season in Carolina.  Oh wait, he just caught his second too!

I ALSO LIKE

CHRIS GODWIN (DK: $6700, FD: $7000) … Godwin should draw enough routes vs Eli Apple to pay off for his $6700 price.  And by enough Routes, one will do.  Just one.

NELSON AGHOLOR (DK: $3400, FD: $5400) … This is almost a free square for me.  There’s no Parker, Stevenson banged up, Meyers banged up and Agholor came up adequately on Monday night with an increased role.  Very cheap in what should be a passing spot for New England.

CHRISTIAN KIRK (DK: $6600, FD: $7100) … Kirk has been an every other week player it seems.  Nice stack option in this game to get Jaguars exposure.

JUJU SMITH SCHUSTER (DK: $5800, FD: $LOL-NO) … DK only

SLEEPER VALUE

DAMIERE BYRD (DK: $3000, FD: $5100) … It’s not London that scares me as a Saints fan, it’s RIdder extending a play and hitting a deep pass to Byrd.

BE CAREFUL WITH

Garrett Wilson – Ground game & Zach Wilson

GREG DULCICH (DK: $3600, FD: $5600) … With so many guys out here for The Broncos and a fairly blah TE slate for match-ups I’ll take the “cheap” Dulcich on DraftKings.

DALTON SCHULTZ (DK: $4400, FD: $6500) … Love Schultz as a stack option with Dak.

HUNTER HENRY (DK: $3300, FD: $4200) … Vegas is 26th in TD allowed TE

TAYSOM HILL (FD: $6200) … FanDuel Only, should be used quite a bit and has a history of destroying the Falcons.

 

JETS (DK: $3200, FD: $4100) … Wanna know the real reason why Rabert Saleh is going with Wilson this week at QB?  Because he knows his defense is going to completely shred the Lions “hot” offense as they go on the road into colder conditions and it will make Wilson feel better about himself to be sitting there up 24-0 after having thrown 2 passes the entire game thanks to his defense.

STEELERS (DK: $3100, FD: $4300) … Lots of banged up Panthers this week, could be back to Sam Darnold being DST friendly

BRONCOS (DK: $2700, FD: $3900) … Chalk team of the week vs a Cardinals team that might mail it in here.

 

AMBUSH FINAL THOUGHTS

This is a nice week for game stacks.  I think the Cowboys defense is clearly looking ahead to next week which puts them in a spot to have another closer than it should be game.

CORE BUILD

#1 – Prescott – Henry – Allen – Lamb

#2 – Jones – Henry – Kamara – Agholor

BETTING CARD

Eagles/Bears UNDER 48.5

Steelers +3

Cowboys/Jaguars OVER 47.5

Jets ML

Titans +3.5

Patriots ML