Farmers Insurance Open
Welcome to another week of the “Jon Rahm PGA Tour”! Holy shit! This guy is on fire!
Like last week, we have a pretty solid field. Also, like last week, we have a multi-course event. Unlike last week, we have the normal cut after two days with everyone playing the North Course once and the South Course once at Torrey Pines. The weekend will be played entirely on the South Course (the more difficult on) with the Top 65 and ties.
Stack your Thursday and Friday Showdown lineups with guys on the North Course since it is the easier of the two. Weekend? Pick the guys that shine in a U. S. Open style setting since the South Course plays like that.
With that being said about he Showdown lineups, our 4-day lineups should also lean towards guys that play difficult setups better – Jon Rahm, Xander, Morikawa, JT, etc. Problem there is all of them are $9,400 and higher. We need to find some good players at lower prices.
Highlights: South Course – Par 72 @ 7,700 yards. (It’s a beast and those making the cut will play it 3 times)
North Course – Par 72 @ 7,200 yards
The South Course has POA ANNUA greens while the North has Bentgrass. The key will be staying away from bogeys or worse. Bombers will have an advantage due to the length, but the fairways aren’t huge so the “Bomber-Sprayers” may not be as lucky.
Again, look for guys that perform well in Majors. I’ll try to point them out, but if you have a gut feeling, go for it.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
Like last week, let’s emphasize the obvious. But, as I said above, there is now way mathematically possible to get them all in unless DraftKings or FanDuel decide to let you take a zero or two and leave a position blank.
- THE OBVIOUS: Jon Rahm ($11,600), Tony Finau ($10,500), Xander Schauffele ($10,300) and Collin Morikawa ($10,000).
These are all of the guys at $10K and up. These are also guys that fit the “plays well in U. S. Open-style events” narrative. Feel free to play any of these guys to start your lineups, but I’ll point out the other guys in this tier below…oh, but the Rahm statement (updated) will remain.
- Will Zalatoris ($9,700)** – outside of Rahm, he is my FAVORITE play again this week. In the rolling-stats model I use, he’s 5th in Shots Gained Tee-to-Green and 7th in Shots Gained Total. As a comparison, Rahm is 6th and 2nd and Finau is 3rd and 1st respectively. He’s almost $2,000 less than Rahm and $800 less than Finau. Around-the-Green is his worst “shots gained” stat but I’m ok with that.
- Sungjae Im ($9,300)** – He’s made the cut in each of the four years he’s played this event. He stumbled at the Sony Open a couple weeks ago which moved some away from playing him. His rolling stats aren’t spectacular but he just seems to always be there.
- Max Homa ($9,100) – Remember when I said “go with your gut”? That’s what I’m doing here. He did miss the cut here last year but since Homa’s game has rounded into shape in the last 3 years or so, his other two attempts were Top 20. He played the TOC and finished T3, but skipped Sony and the AmEx. In his last five events going back to September, he’s been Top 25 in all of them. Rolling stats? 4th SGT-to-G and 3rd SG-Total.
- Taylor Montgomery ($9,200) – He is probably the guy in this group that will receive the least attention because of lack of name recognition. He finished T11 in his only attempt here and is coming off a 5th and a T12 in the last two events.
- Jon Rahm ($11,600) – NO ONE ON THE PLANET IS PLAYING BETTER THAN JON RAHM RIGHT NOW!! FOUR wins in his last SEVEN events and his worst finish is T8. I would be derelict in my duty as an analyst to not point that out. However, everyone will want to play him so, I will not be loading every lineup with Rahm.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Si Woo Kim ($8,900)** – I’ll admit, I wasn’t keen on playing Si Woo for quite some time. Now, he’s playing solid golf. You play the guy that’s hot – unless he’s so hot that the pricing is too high – until he’s not. Si Woo’s price hasn’t risen as quickly as his performance.
- J. J. Spaun ($8,500)** – He’s getting more expensive, but he’s still not crazy expensive for the play you’re getting! Last 5 events: T12-T5-12th-T15-T15! A Top 15 at $8,500 will definitely improve your chances of cashing. He’s also 12th in SG-Total! He’s good around the green and, while he’s not really a bomber, the length won’t kill him.
- Adam Hadwin ($8,200) – Just a solid player who keeps his cool if things go bad for a bit. That’s what’s needed on difficult courses.
- Thomas Detry ($7,600) – Price stayed the same as last week. No experience here, but this International player is playing solid golf. I can see a Top 25 and spending $7,600 to get that makes a lot of sense.
- Maverick McNealy ($8,600) – He’s never really been a “favorite” of mine because I always doubt his consistency. However, as of late, he’s finishing Top 10 more often than not. His game should fit the courses.
$7,000 to $7,400
- Ben Taylor ($7,100)** – He missed the cut last week with a 74 on Saturday, but has been solid prior to that.
- Stephan Jaeger ($7,200)** – Much like Taylor, he’s been making cuts regularly since November. In those last four events, he’s averaging 4 birdies a round and has been 70 or lower in 15 of his last 16 rounds.
- Adam Svensson ($7,200)
- Patton Kizzire ($7,100) – He used to be my low-priced staple, but then he lost his game for a bit. I think it’s back and $7,100 is a good price to take the risk.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” is tough again this week. Pricing is a little softer so you really don’t need to go this low unless you want to be top-heavy as well.
- Kevin Streelman ($6,800)** – probably the guy in this tier with the best course history over any period of time. He’s only missed the cut once in seven tries.
- Austin Smotherman ($6,700) – T11 in his only attempt here and had a T67 at Sony.
- Eric Cole ($6,700) – He’s made his last 5 cuts and finished T36 with four solid rounds last week at the AmEx.
LONGSHOT
Garrick Higgo ($7,200) is my longshot. I first saw this lefty play on the European Tour (a.k.a. World Tour) when he was lighting it up at an event. His game hasn’t transferred as well to the PGA Tour, but a solid T11 at AmEx last week gave me a good feeling. He won’t win, but if he can put up another T20, I’d take that at $7,200.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!