NFL … Championship Sunday
There really isn’t much that can compare to Championship Sunday. I know that I really think the Divisional round is the best but the experience of the Championship games when they are good is pretty unique. I have been to two in person in my life and well, let’s just not talk about the second one but the first one was the most exhausted I have ever been attending a game in person.
The idea that the NFL wants to move these to neutral sites (which will happen folks, it will happen) is just ridiculous for the fans but that’s how the league is operating and it’s a no-brainer financially for them long term. So for those fans lucky enough to experience this in person, enjoy it. I would not want my team to be playing on a neutral site as the home team and really not as the away team either…
For this weeks article I am going to break things down into three sections.
- Game Theory (this is gonna be brief)
- Ambush Plays – Top 5 players / Bets this weekend
- Overall notes on the various players to consider.
Here’s my game theory for both games. I do not see any team scoring 30+ points this weekend and thus I do not see any Quarterback having a massive game. The one obvious pick is Jalen Hurts because he most certainly could have 2 rushing touchdowns but I suspect he has none.
So in DFS for those playing the 2-game slate, I believe you will be best off taking the route of balancing your lineups to ensure that you have a solid floor in every position. QB and D/ST each could wind up being where all 4 options finish within 4-7 points of each other, but if you are off by 7-10 points at one WR position you are in trouble.
Thus, focus less on correlation and stacks and focus more on just your gut with usage and opportunity.
NFC Championship
Close your eyes and envision the picture on the TV at 3pm EST on Sunday when they pan to the light green grass field in Philadelphia with 50 degree temps, light winds and clouds. What do you see besides a loud crowd?
I see AJ Brown scoring the opening touchdown on a 28 yard TD pass from Hurts and Philadelphia striking first, holding an early lead and then things get very very close in the second half of this game.
San Francisco will need 4 FG to win. Philly needs 3 TD to win. That’s your game, now does neither get it? Well, very likely, in which case we might have ourselves an OT game with the new OT rules finally coming into play.
I have no winner prediction on this one. 23-20 final score in OT after being 17-6 Eagles at the half, Under 46.5
AFC Championship
All the attention is around Mahomes ankle and Burrow, but this one likely comes down to the RB at the end of the day. Statistically the Chiefs have been a major funnel for passing touchdowns, but Joe Mixon or Joe Burrow should have options to run one in themselves. Maybe even a Perine citing on third down because KC is going to double team JaMarr Chase as much as they can (and it might not be enough).
This game more than the SF/PHI one is where I believe you have to stake a stand on the studs. Chase and Kelce should do just fine, they are guys you always want, but with limited TD ceilings IMO with a game played in the 20’s and not the 30’s you’ll be sitting just fine without them assuming they do not get a 2 TD game. Neither will BTW.
My heart says the Bengals win because of Burrow & Chase. My head says that Mahomes and the Chiefs are due to get their one win vs the Bengals and they get it late with a TD drive from Mahomes to win by 6 23-17.
Chiefs 23, Bengals 17. Under 48
Here are my top 5 picks this weekend
WR – AJ Brown – Eagles
Brown had a huge game while with the Titans a season ago vs Kansas City going 8-133 and 1 TD off 9 targets. You may recall that was the game which flipped the season for the Chiefs to get going, so I don’t weigh that a ton, but I also do weigh that Brown has Hurts throwing to him and #1 WR vs Kansas City have done just fine. In this game, Brown will play as the #1 for Hurts and he is a must own and the top anytime TD pick of the weekend.
TE – George Kittle – 49ers
Everyone wants to bash on Purdy for being a rookie and likely making a mistake. Well, count me into that equation Alex. Most of Purdy’s starts have generously come at home and most of them have come against bad teams vs the TE. This one though goes on the road but the TE funnel to Kittle does help. I lean back to what Purdy did in college and that was throw to Charlie Kolar as much as he could in tight spots. When things get tight, he will go to Kittle.
RB – Joe Mixon – Bengals
For the AFC Showdown entries, I like using Mixon and Perine in a few lineups, but main DFS lineups it’s all Bro Mixon. The injuries on the Bengals OL showed up as they managed to run the ball efficiently which is what you do with backup OL and they should try to do here this week as well. He will get 15+ touches.
WR – JuJu Smith-Schuster
Value. Value. Value. Yes, ownership, but who cares it’s 2 games. You want to really capitalize here? Then take JJSS over props this weekend as well. Ju-Ju in Cincy is bad TikTok, but in Kansas City with Mahomes needing to throw off his first read I believe he is the most likely to win 1:1 battles (well, besides Kelce, duh) quickly off the line and has 5+ catches.
The Unders …
Wild card round was full of overs and the Divisional round was full of unders. This round should be full of unders once again. We have good defenses which can keep the other teams from scoring automatic touchdowns in the red zone and thus I like the alt-line unders this weekend. Tease them up and take the under.
- Patrick Mahomes … I don’t have an automatic #1 lock it in QB and I believe they all finish close to each other which honestly says go Purdy at $5300 right? Eh, no. Purdy could wind up with 1 TD while Mahomes has 3 and that’s enough to exclude him and with the other 2 being more popular I’ll take the lower owned Mahomes.
- Jalen Hurts
- Joe Burrow
Nobody stands out as a great play, which is kinda nice this week here.
- Joe Mixon … 70 yards and a touchdown is good enough on this slate, that’s what I project for Mixon with some receiving work too.
- Jerick McKinnon
- Christian McCaffrey … There are 3 ‘Big’ price tag guys on this slate who I can see being on a lineup but not more than one. Of those 3, CMC is probably the most likely to not have a ton of competition at his position from the rest of the field.
- Miles Sanders … I don’t see Gainwell or Scott getting enough volume.
Longshot Showdown Call(s)
- Kyle Jusczyk … Showdown pick more than main slate. CMC/Mitchell banged up and then he takes one in from the 3.
- Samaje Perine
- AJ Brown … Must own
- Ju-Ju Smith Schuster
- Tee Higgins … Prefer over Chase based on $ and RZ matchup.
- Deebo Samuel
- Quez Watkins
Longshot Showdown Calls
Zach Pascal
Trenton Irwin
- George Kittle
Nobody else. Yep, not even Kelce. Okay, maybe Kelce. But really, we saw the 2TE system work the first two rounds and it’ll be fitting for it to die this weekend.
Ask me again in 5 minutes and this order could randomly change.
- Eagles
- Chiefs
- Bengals
- 49ers
AMBUSH Same Game Parlays
49ers at Eagles (+600)
- AJ Brown Anytime Touchdown
- AJ Brown 60+ Receiving Yards
- Kittle OVER 29.5 Receiving
- Under 53.5
Bengals at Chiefs (+750)
- Under 57.5
- Tee Higgins Anytime TD
- Joe Mixon OVER 54.5 Rushing Yards
- JuJu Smith-Schuster 35+ Receiving Yards
FIRST TIME TOUCHDOWN PARLAY
AJ BROWN
JOE MIXON
CORE DFS BUILD
Joe Mixon
JuJu Smith-Schuster
AJ Brown