NFL … Divisional Round Playoffs
We have a fairly simple and chilly weekend from a weather perspective, which is both good and bad because one of these years we deserve an epic snow game in the playoffs. Once again I am covering the four game full main slate as the primary purpose of this article with enough nuggets to build the Sat and Sun only slates.
Saturday
Jaguars at Chiefs – Upper 30’s, no precip, no wind
Gut says Chiefs win by 2+ touchdowns. The Jaguars had their pop the cherry playoff game last week and also are coming in off a massive playoff comeback, which always results in a blowout the following week. Throw in that they’re the road team in the early Saturday 4:25 Divisional game and that’s just bad mojo. Chiefs roll. Don’t sleep on a Chiefs stack.
Giants at Eagles – Low 40’s, no precip, no wind
Everyone seems to be talking up the Giants here and while the +8.5 could wind up being a nice cover, I do not think they can beat the Eagles. Philly has enough still on their OL and especially their DL to control this game. I lean the under on this one.
Sunday
Bengals at Bills – Low 30’s, 10 mph wind, no precip sadly
Can there be such a thing as a bad spot in the playoffs? I think that’s what the Bengals have here, because Buffalo has consistently been a team this year which rolls out a thumping every 3rd or 4th game and this smells like a potential thumping game. I didn’t write up Josh Allen below but I could see him finishing over 350+ all purpose yards. The #1 play here though is Gabe Davis.
Cowboys at 49ers – Mid 50’s, Partly Cloudy, no wind
This one stays close and could wind up being the best of the four over the weekend. The Cowboys though are fools gold and probably won’t get enough pressure on Purdy to force him into mistakes. CMC, Kittle, Aiyuk, Deebo, just too many weapons and San Francisco has one path where they don’t win and that requires Dan Quinn putting together a 60 minute game plan to stop Shanny.
I think Shanny knows what he will try to do and the Niners close this one out in the second half in a sneaky high scoring game.
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Brock Purdy (DK: $5400, FD: $7000) … I like points in this game and see the 49ers putting up a big 30 spot on Dallas, who has shown signs of issues on defense in the second half of the season and does not have enough depth to cover the 49ers weapons. Look for Purdy to pay off as the best value QB this weekend.
ALSO LIKE
Patrick Mahomes (DK: $8000, FD: $9200)… Mahomes could and very likely should throw for 350 and 3 against Jacksonville because he can and he is coming off a BYE while playing for Andy Reid, who is a master coming off a BYE. In their regular season meeting in November Mahomes was 36-35-331-4. I believe the Chiefs can come out fast in this game and put up 21 points in the first half and Mahomes should figure into two of those.
Trevor Lawrence (DK: $6000, FD: $7600) … The jitters came out fast and furious for Lawrence last weekend and he should be more settled in to put together a full game in week two. Is it enough to take down the Chiefs? No. But a TD pass to Etienne, a TD pass to Jones or Kirk and a few scrambles puts him on the map for good results on DraftKings.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
Joe Mixon (DK: $6500 FD: $7700) … Cincy game out blazing through the air at home vs the Bills before the game was canceled but now on the road in Buffalo they cannot be stupid & ignore Mixon.
Tony Pollard (DK: $6100, FD: $7100) … High scoring games have led to Pollard being better DFS wise all season long. Matchup and all the analysts will say that the Niners can shutdown pass catching RB but in a playoff game I kinda throw out the stats and lean on gut feels.
Travis Etienne (DK: $6400, FD: $6800) … Love the yard props on Etienne if we combine rushing and receiving this weekend. Chiefs have long been generous to RB out of the backfield.
ALSO LIKE
Christian McCaffrey
Devin Singletary
Boston Scott … Why not? Mr. Giant killer is back once again. Him or Sanders has to have a good game.
THE AMBUSH PLAYS
Gabriel Davis (DK: $4800, FD: $6600) … Remember the big Gabe Davis game last year? It’s this week, not next week and I am heavy on Gabe Davis props. Over 4 catches, over 56 yards receiving, anytime touchdown. Load up on him in DFS.
Brandon Aiyuk (DK: $5000, FD: $6500) … Deebo Samuel made his re-appearance last week, but #2 weapons against Dallas have proven to be consistent.
Christian Kirk (DK: $6000, FD: $7600) … I am flipping back and forth in my mind between Kirk, Jones or even Engram as the second player to pair with Lawrence on Saturday and for now I am leaning on Kirk going 6-107, but there’s really no reason to debate these two other than price.
ALSO LIKE
CeeDee Lamb (DK: $7300, FD: $7800)
DeVonta Smith (DK: $7200, FD: $7400)
Kadarius Toney (DK: $4100, FD: $5800)
THE AMBUSH PLAY
Travis Kelce (DK: $7700, FD: $8000) … Kelce has been massively overrated in DFS this entire season as he finished as the TE1 just twice all year long and really his HUGE games came on island slates. This isn’t to say that he sucked at all, he was the most consistent thing most of the time, but we’ve been waiting for that 6-150-2 game for a while. Well, it might just be here folks.
Dallas Goedert (DK: $4500, FD: $6300)
ALSO LIKE
Hayden Hurst (DK: $3200, FD: $5000) … One of my favorite Sunday only plays as the TE are better on Saturday.
George Kittle (DK: $5700, FD: $7100) … I wouldn’t push him over Kelce but I do think he is a strong TD play this week.
Daniel Bellinger (DK: $3000, FD: $4900) … Value/punt
THE AMBUSH PLAY
49ers … They are barely the highest priced defense and I think that will be enough to keep their ownership down. Love the Niners overall to win. Dallas was inflated down the stretch and basically played a Senior Citizen’s Home Team last week…
ALSO LIKE
Chiefs … I really think the Chiefs win by a ton this weekend and just end this game early in the second half. Strong upside for late turnovers or even a DEF TD.
AMBUSH Same Game Parlays
Jaguars at Chiefs
- Chiefs -9.5
- Isiah Pachecho Anytime Touchdown
- Chiefs Over 24.5
- Travis Etienne 15+ Alt Receiving Yards
- KC Chiefs -2.5 1st Half
Giants at Eagles
- Giants +14.5
- Dallas Goedert Anytime TD
- Daniel Jones Under 59.5 rushing yards
- Miles Sanders 55+ Alt Rushing Yards
Bengals at Bills
- Gabe Davis OVER 64.5 receiving yards
- Gabe Davis anytime touchdown
- Joe Mixon Over 44.5 rushing yards
- Gabe Davis 4+ receptions
Cowboys at 49ers
- SF 49ers -4.5
- CMC Anytime TD
- Brock Purdy 225+ Alt Passing Yards
- Brandon Aiyuk Alt Recv Yards
CORE BUILD(S)
QB – Purdy
RB – Sanders
WR – Aiyuk
WR – Davis
TE – Kelce
Sat Only
QB – Mahomes
RB – Pachecho
TE – Kelce
Sun Only
QB – Purdy
RB – Mixon
WR – Davis
WR – Aiyuk
TE – Hurst