Genesis Invitational
I didn’t win much last week, but damn I like that tournament! Last week’s field was outstanding and, other than Majors, may only be exceeded by this week and/or WGC events (only because they are limited to the top players).
Like last week, we are seeing the jaw-dropping fields because of the new “Elevated Event” status the PGA put in place this year. A $20 million purse tends to get your attention!
As I’ve said before, and I hope many of you are coming to appreciate, Golf DFS has to have some of the most – if not the most – variance of any DFS sport. Getting a lineup with 6/6 into the weekend is an accomplishment. Most lineups go into the weekend with 5/6 and even 4/6 with good opportunities to cash. A lineup with 6/6 probably has you in contention to win a contest, but I’ll tell you, there have been plenty of times over the years where 6/6 ends up out of the money…it is not a guarantee! Four guys in the top 25 is likely better than 6/6 with all six being in the bottom half of the field.
We are staying on the west coast and moving back to one of the most iconic courses in golf – Riviera!
Highlights: Riviera CC – Par 71 @ 7,300 yards
The course is about the same as last week in length and Par, but it sort of stops there. The fairways are not very wide and are lined with trees. Greens are small and usually fast. A fun fact that I’ve seen mentioned a couple of times – only slightly over half of the greens are hit in regulation. That means short game is important, especially SG Around-the-Green.
The rough isn’t always the longest. However, over the years of watching this tournament, I don’t know how many times I’ve heard “that Kikuyu grass is nasty”!
Much like last week, I’m not going to be really picky about who I tell you to play in the group of golfers priced at $9K and up. Honestly, other than guys that “kill” a course, it’s a guess. 8 times out of 10, these guys will at least make a cut. Still, golf is golf and shit happens! Remember, they call it GOLF because all of the other four-letter words were taken!
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
$9,000 and Above
Like last week, I’m going to give you rankings in this tier for the two most important statistics I think there are for this tournament: SG: Tee-to-Green (SG:T2G) and SG: Approach (SG:APP). I was going to go with SG Around-the-Green, but my logic is, if they are good at the approach, then around the green is just icing. So, for those of you that say “Hey Jackass, you just said it’s hard to hit the greens,” I’m going to include a compound stat (SG:ATG / SG:APP).
SG: T2G (with overall rank – last 16 rounds):
- Jon Rahm ($11,100) 3rd
- Scottie Scheffler ($10,700) 1st
- Rory McIlroy ($10,500) 4th
- Justin Thomas ($10,100) 8th
- Xander Schauffele ($9,900) 6th
- Max Homa ($9,700) 15th
- Tony Finau ($9,500) 2nd
- Sungjae Im ($9,400) 11th
- Collin Morikawa ($9,300) 5th
- Sam Burns ($9,100) 74th
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,000) 37th
SG: ATG / SG: APP (with overall rank – last 16 rounds):
- Jon Rahm ($11,100) 15th / 28th
- Scottie Scheffler ($10,700) 25th / 8th
- Rory McIlroy ($10,500) 24th / 27th
- Justin Thomas ($10,100) 2nd / 51st
- Xander Schauffele ($9,900) 62nd / 12th
- Max Homa ($9,700) 34th / 6th
- Tony Finau ($9,500) 33rd / 3rd
- Sungjae Im ($9,400) 14th / 18th
- Collin Morikawa ($9,300) 85th / 4th
- Sam Burns ($9,100) 35th / 106th
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,000) 74th / 63rd
So, what does this tell us? Other than Sam Burns and Patrick Cantlay, the tee-to-green game for all of these guys is great! The second one is more important to me as far as differentiating between guys. I’m more interested in a better approach game – especially with small greens that are missed about half the time. Now, a mediocre approach game and a great around-the-green game is ok as well (see Justin Thomas). A bad ATG game is offset by a great APP game (see Morikawa). Bad at both and you may want to stay away for a while (see Cantlay). Confused yet? It’s why I hate stats as a general rule, but we need to know how a guy is playing.
Based on the above, I probably should have steered clear of Cantlay last week instead of making him a favorite of mine (although he was 5th). Stats serve a purpose and, like them or not, I’m not being a good analyst if I don’t give you something to help YOU make the decision. Like last week, MY Top 5 would be: Schauffele, “West Coast” Homa, Rahm, Sungjae, and McIlroy.
I like Scottie Scheffler too, but I’m always leery picking guys in a back-to-back situation. But, he would be a very close pick with McIlroy given there is only a $200 difference in their pricing. Homa, Schauffele, and Sungjae are all under $10K which is another reason that I like them a little better.
$7,500 to $8,900
$7,500 to $8,900- Viktor Hovland ($8,900)** – I’m still on the Viktor train even though a T42 last week was disappointing. This course fits his game better in my opinion which is probably why his only two appearances have resulted in a T4 and a T5 in 2022 & 2021 respectively.
- Cameron Young ($8,800)** – Same feeling as with Hovland. 64th last week but a T2 in his only appearance at Riviera last year.
- Will Zalatoris ($8,700) – I like Will Z anytime he tees it up. However, he isn’t a “favorite” for me per se in this category because he hasn’t played much this year.
- Adam Scott ($8,000) – Playing well and course history here is phenomenal for a guy priced this low – T4-T38-Win-T7-T53-T11-T2-T10 in his last eight appearances.
- Below $8K? Rickie Fowler ($7,900); Seamus Power ($7,700); Brian Harman ($7,500)
$7,000 to $7,400
- Taylor Moore ($7,200)** – If you want a lesser-known name that’s playing well, here you go! T21 in his only appearance here and his last 3 events are T14-T15-T11.
- Nick Taylor ($7,400) – this is a current form play after watching him last week. He’s made the cut in 3 of his last 4 and all three were Top 20s. A Top 20 at this price is a win bigtime! If he finishes Top 5 like last week, this will make up for a mediocre performance by a Top Tier guy – as long as that Top Tier guy makes the cut!
- Thomas Detry ($7,100)** – This is a pure gut call! Well, that and the fact he hasn’t missed a cut in a while.
- J. T. Poston ($7,300) – He missed the cut last week, but I’m sticking with him.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” – well… you may just need it so:
- Adrian Meronk ($6,900) – Who? Exactly! It’s a little risky because he’s a Euro guy that is making a jump to PGA this week, but he has played well on the U. S. West Coast before.
- Brandon Wu ($6,700) – as long as he keeps making cuts at these prices, he’s worth a play.
- Greyson Sigg ($6,600) – same as Wu at $100 less. Look, these guys are plugs when it’s all you have left and you don’t want to change the other five (or four if you’re really loading the top).
LONGSHOT
Tommy Fleetwood ($7,300) is my longshot.
This guy is simply too good of a player to be priced this low. He missed the cut at WMPO, but I think he finds his game this week. His short game SG:ATG is 4th and SG:T2G is still 36th.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!