Two in the Top 100
Luis Robert, OF – Chicago White Sox – ADP ~46
Once again the OF position is one where you need to get sure things early on and then take gambles late. So if you come out of the first two rounds without one of the top studs like I usually do then you better be getting one before it gets too late. Robert has long had the potential to be the next big star in MLB and the White Sox Cuban OF is one of many Cuban born players who should benefit from a managerial change on the south side.
Injuries no doubt remain a thorn in the side, having played no more than 98 games in any season, Robert is really just going into his third full big league season now and will turn 26 late in the season. There’s enough speed that a 25 SB season is not out of the question to go along with 30 HR and 100 RBI over a full season and we’re looking at a potential top 3 MVP candidate if everything goes right. I’m not selling on Robert and the White Sox young talent just yet.
Max Fried, SP – Atlanta Braves – ADP ~55
A season ago I wrote here about how I was all in on Sandy Alcantara and Dylan Cease as my two top pitchers and how did that work out my friends? This year it is Alek Manoah and Max Fried and they’re both going in the same range but it’s Fried who I think gets past everyone else a little more than the shiny Manoah, so Fried gets the bump here.
They’re for certain my Cy Young picks in the respective leagues and Fried is a pitcher I have long been a fan of. His BB rates are what were an issue early in his career but mike many southpaws he has gotten better with age and has gone from 5.3 BB/9 in 2018 to 2.6, 3.1 (Covid year), 2.2 and a stellar 1.6 BB/9 over 185 IP in 2022. Throw in that he’s pretty durable (88 starts over the last three full seasons), pitching for an elite team who should win 90+ games and has a boost with Sean Murphy now catching him and we should see Fried once again around or below 2.5 ERA, win 15 games and strike out over 8 batters per 9. He’s about as steady as they come and also a LHP who might not struggle as much with holding runners on like the RHP will this season.
Two more before 200
Logan Gilbert, SP – Seattle Mariners – ADP ~105
Everyone is talking about Grayson Rodriguez, the Orioles top SP prospect, as one of the best young RHP in the game. But it’s Gilbert who is ahead of him in ADP and development and will pay off at this price tag in 2023.
The big buzz this Spring has been Gilbert incorporating a split-finger into his arsenal which he said would replace his Change-Up (~8%) that wasn’t used very often, nor effective. Many data nerds are going to point to his increased BB% and decreased K% and 4.11 xERA as reasons why he’s going in the 100’s but his fastball is elite and the secondary pitches saw increase in velo last year too. There’s a little Greinke in Gilbert and it won’t be long before he has that 2009 type Zach Greinke Cy Young season. Buy him now sub 100 because in 2024 he’ll be a top 50 draft pick.
Alec Bohm, 3B – Philadelphia Phillies – ADP ~180
ADP considered, Bohm is my #1 hitting target this season.
Welcome to the Summer of Bohm. Bohm has more true bat skills than other top rated 3B around him, and the lack of power in the past has slowly started to build up as he bulks up himself and becomes a more seasoned hitter Bohm will hit 25+ HR this season and wind up being the most consistent power bat in a deep Phillies lineup.
There are two physical attributes which tend to lead to players developing at a slower rate. Left handed pitchers and tall, long-armed hitters. Bohm, listed at 6’5, 218 added some weight this off-season and is filling into his broad shoulders and long swing to be able to cover the entire plate and take pitches outside of the zone to the opposite field.
If you hang-em, he’ll Bohm em and one metric I always look at with hitters is their doubles upside. Bohm has been great down and in and I look for this chart below to have more red towards the outside this season.
Two sleepers after 200
Austin Meadows, OF – Detroit Tigers – ADP ~265
A former top 100 fantasy pick who is playing in one of the stadiums that adjusted dimensions to favor hitting slightly and is going into his age 27 season.
The value here is just too damn good to ignore. Meadows had a horrible 2022 season and in case you haven’t heard he had some off the field issues as he battled not just a bad Achilles but had a bad case of vertigo and supposedly some anxiety/mental health issues. No jokes here about the correlation of going from Tampa to Detroit which caused some of that, but we certainly hope Meadows is in a good place going forward.
In 2022 he saw his highest GB% since his rookie season and his lowest pull% sincee that same rookie season, two things that I think we can attribute towards a poor mental approach — which is maybe why he was just not swinging the bat at all in some AB’s.
The Tigers lineup is not great, but I once again want to point out where his ADP is and relative to the talent we saw when he was healthy.
Gabriel Montero, C – Arizona Diamondbacks – ADP ~270
I find it amusing that Montero is going right after Francisco Alvarez in many drafts. Both young catchers have a ton of power in their bats but despite the Citi Field changes, it’s Montero who has the superior ballpark to hit in and also has those road games in Coors Field every once and a while too. Granted, a few road games for a catcher aren’t that big of a deal but Montero is the perfect 2nd/3rd catcher to lock in on.
He was acquired in the off-season trade that sent Daulton Varsho over to the Blue Jays and his bat is going to be good enough to get some DH spots during the season as Arizona has other solid C options too. A couple solid breaks go his way and he can finish as a top 12 Catcher.