No site synchronicity today. FanDuel has two early slates in typical FanDuel fashion and they included the Astros/Pirates game on their ‘Very Early’ slate but do not have the Marlins/Phillies and Nationals/Angels games on that slate, while DraftKings does.
All in all there are a lot of mid week afternoon games for early in April. Eight of the 15 series in fact are playing on the afternoon slate today, which kinda makes it the ‘Main’ slate if you consider the biggest slate Main.
WEATHER
Very similar to last night, in which we saw good offense continue and there’s some additional good spots today as well.
- SD at NYM – Windy out to RF, and remember they did bring in the fences in RF this year slightly.
- NYY at CLE – 16 mph wind out to RF
- CHW at MIN – 14 mph out to left
- SEA at CHC – 21 mph out to CF … Day game. 73 degrees. Fun.
- STL at COL – 79 degrees, 11 mph out to center.
- MIA at PHI – 80 degrees, 16 mph out to right.
- ROOF CLOSED in ARIZONA
That’s a ton of positive impact for hitting, and I didn’t need to go get a Meteorology degree and you didn’t need to pay $15.99 for that extra advice.
Normally I would say lets take the roof closed game in Arizona and game stack those arms. But unfortunately we have Dr(e)y Jameson making his debut for the Diamondbacks, which really is just a bad name. Who wants to be known as Dry Jameson? Does that mean he is a recovering alcoholic or he is just some Gen Z version of getting drunk? And on the other side in that same game is Janson Junk. So a Junk pitcher vs a Dry Drunk? What an absolute mess… In short, we want no part of young pitchers there, lets take our chances with someone in a good hitting weather game.
Zack Wheeler
DK: $9,700 (Game not on FD)
When first examining the list of pitchers Wheeler was the one I had the first gut instinct on. Obviously the weather is not ideal for mid April pitching options but then again on the entire slate it’s bad no matter where you go.
So why Wheeler? I think we gotta value anyone who can get 8+ strikeouts on this slate and Wheeler can do that. Soler, COoper, Avisail and De La Cruz are all good strikeout matchups for him. Arraez certainly is tough and Jazz is probably gonna pull one for yardwork. But if Wheeler can get lucky vs those guys and not fuck up vs Jean bleepin Seugra, Jacob Stallings and the mighty Jon Berti then I believe he can deliver us those strikeouts.
MacKenzie Gore
DK: $6,700 (Game not on FD)
Weird that the coolest game is in Anaheim and a 1PM game in Anaheim has never been one to automatically lock in on a pitcher (a mid afternoon game would be though, just as a reminder if/when the Angels have a 4PM local start time). Gore is pitching well so far with the Nats and how quickly people forget how great his arm talent is and how great he was with San Diego when finally coming up last season. We know the Angels will whiff and Gore will attack Trout up in the zone which leads me to believe he gets past him and will make the rest of the Angels look bad.
FanDuel Only
Jose Urquidy … Gotta give consideration to Urquidy vs the Pirates who did some hitting damage last night but overall are not a deep lineup without Cruz. I expect this game to go under to start things off today and Urquidy has posted a 26.8 and 25.3 CSW% through his first two starts, which should carry over today and he’ll likely get up to 6 IP after going 4 and 5 1/3.
- FD 2nd Option: Lucas Giolito
There are two games which optimizers probably will go heavy on today. Coors Field where you have Jose Urena and walk friendly Jack Flaherty, and Wrigley day game with the wind gusting out. Given that many other games are positive for hitting, this opens a nice leverage opportunity simply to stay away from those spots and I don’t want to stack Coors today, but Wrigley definitely has a few homers in it.
Padres
Grisham, Soto, Bogaerts, Cronenworth
Megill has one of the worst splits vs LHB on this slate, and the wind out to RF probably won’t help matters either in a warm Citi Field day game.
Yankees
Giancarlo, Rizzo, Gleyber
Yes, I too hate stacking the Yankees, but the weather in Cleveland should be great for a big HR game for this team which doesn’t run and only hits homers. So its boom or bust but they can outscore Coors/Wrigley if they boom and Stanton/Gleyber come in with relatively good form to pair with the Rizzo LiC homer.
Phillies
Stott, Turner, Bohm
Edward Cabrera has a ton of what folks like to call ‘arm talent’, but he’s gotta be a little shaky coming off a 7 BB 2 2/3 outing vs the Mets and now any early struggles could turn this into a 15 run game for the Phillies. I will go all in on Trea Turner here to be the catalyst with the Phils offense today and pairing him with Stott (3300) makes a ton of sense. The price on Bohm is also too cheap considering he is going to hit 30+ homers this season.
Wrigley Bats
SEA: Julio Rodriguez, Jarred Kelenic
CHC: Nico Hoerner, Dansby Swanson
Gilbert and Stroman can be good enough to limit the early game explosion like we saw last night. But the Mariners bullpen hasn’t been stellar of late and Gilbert will for sure give up a HR, likely to Hoener or Swanson in B1.
CATCHER
- Cal Raleigh / Tom Murphy … Both could start for SEA, which would lean towards Murphy for your value option here.
- JT Realmuto
- Luis Campusano
FIRST BASE
- Anthony Rizzo
- Josh Bell
- Eric Hosmer
SECOND BASE
Well look what we have here. Dare I say 2B is going to go off today?
- Mucho gusto me llamo Steve, I’m rostering Nico Hoernier than Ron Jeremeeeya…
- Bryson Stott
- Gleyber Torress
THIRD BASE
- Arenado, Nolan…
- Alec Bohm
- Jose Ramirez
SHORTSTOP
- Trea Turner
- Dansby Swanson
- Carlos Correa
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Julio Rodriguez
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Alec Burleson
- Juan Soto
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Trent Grisham
- Kyle Schwarber
- Trevor Larnach
- Luis Robert Jr
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jurickson Profar
- Miles Mastrobuoni … Just a horrible name, but a great cheap HR pick today
- Jake Cave
- Nico Hoerner – 2B – Cubs – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Trea Turner – SS – Phillies
- Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Yankees
- Nolan Arenado – 3B – Cardinals
- Julio Rodriguez – OF – Mariners
- Miles Mastrobuoni – OF – Cubs
- Trevor Larnach – OF – Twins
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- BONUS …………. Eric Hosmer – 1B – Cubs
FAVORITE BET(s)
- Yankees ML -118
- Padres ML -102
- Mariners/Cubs OVER 10.5
When in doubt, take in game overs today on games that might start quiet…
TOP PROP(s) OF THE DAY
I’ll be moving the seasonal bets tracker to it’s own page soon as part of the BETS dashboard, which I expect to be 100% operational in 1-2 weeks. The goal is to give a model for Dogs, Totals, K Props and Batter Props which makes recommendations and then also tracks my picks along with that on its own dashboard. I am also working on designing something where Members can log their picks on the dashboard and others can see the picks.
- Griffin Canning under 4.5 strikeouts
- Zack Wheeler over 6.5 strikeouts
- Tylor Megill under 5.5 strikeouts