Happy Sunday, we have the regular 1PM main slate featuring 10 games, followed up with a four game afternoon slate and then the Rangers/Astros in what should be a very boring Sunday Night Showdown game that’s probably over in 30 minutes.
I’ll include some quick Afternoon slate thoughts in the bottom of this article for a full day of MLB action for everyone.
WEATHER
Building a new ‘Weather’ page on the Lineups page that we have here. It should be functional this week for you to see, but as always I’ll keep doing a breakdown on the weather and just highlighting things that could impact play and whether a game should be ignored.
Today we have two games which carry some bad weather in them that have PPD risk, but neither of them are divisional games.
- Orioles at White Sox – Severe storms, they either try to get through it or write it off as needing to fly the Orioles back for a make up game later in the season. The Orioles are off on Monday but the White Sox are home vs the Phillies, so they can’t just push it out a day.
- Giants at Tigers – Game will play. Risk here is when/if the rain comes and causes an in game delay.
- Phillies at Reds – This one will play but could have a delay to let the field dry out. But it plays. Quick note on the Reds. They seem to always have a reputation for waiting games out and when it rains in Cincinnati it tends to lead to better offense after storms.
As always, follow this rule of thumb on weather if you are concerned and don’t sit there asking questions 30 mins before the slate.
— If the game starts in a delay, fade it.
— If the game starts on time, play it.
There are 180+ slates each season, don’t let one weather game ruin your experience when you could build a lineup that is what you want/need with other options. We have 8 other games besides these two today people. I mean, you could be stacking Giants/Tigers without ANY concern for weather!
For the record, I’m ignoring Orioles/White Sox.
On with the show.
This slate is very HEAVY on the pitching front, which means you can be creative with who you use because there are multiple paths to get there.
SANDY ALCANTARA
We’ve run full circle here as the team who invented the South Beach Narrative (Arizona) is back on a Sunday in South Beach versus mighty Sandy Alcantara. Sandy was rough in Philadelphia his last start, which we give him a pass on. Do not fear the Cy Young bouncing back at home today.
SHANE BIEBER
The only thing which keeps Bieber from pushing through 6+ innings with 8+ strikeouts against the Nationals would be him just not giving a damn. The Nats aren’t a major strikeout team, but that’s somewhat negated when you have someone like Bieber and an elite CSW%.
REID DETMERS
Reid wasn’t on my initial list but with things trending poorly for weather in Detroit (see below) I wanted another mid range option. Boston’s lineup is just so ugly and Detmers can hopefully negate Devers and any Fenway issues as a LHP. Angels win this one and it’s leaning towards the under for me, so with his 30% DCPA strikeout rating today I would take a gamble on Detmers as an SP2 to save $.
LOGAN WEBB
Some rain concerns here…. In game storm could come along and delay things. I actually think this is a GOOD scenario where a pre-game delay helps get the game in cleanly.
Oh look, Logan Webb is pitching in a day game. What are the chances of that? Logan Webb will make his 81st career start today in the afternoon up in Detroit. This will be his 41st start in the daytime, over 50%! His basic splits Day: 15-13, 4.30 ERA Night: 16-9, 2.77 ERA. So yes, he is better at night time which makes sense considering the park he plays in. But he is also facing the Tigers.
Sunday Sleepers …
There are three pitchers that are cheaper on DK which I believe can put together good starts today. Miles Mikolas, Matt Boyd and the epic battle between Kyle Wright & ZACK GREINKE!
The problem here is that we have so many good arms that I don’t see needing to go down this rabbit hole and there’s also a limited set of “go off” stacks out there, so I would encourage you to just pay up for both pitching spots on DK and definitely on FD today. But each of these guys probably get through 5 innings without much harm.
Mikolas – Probably the most popular of the cheap arms. Turns in his best performance of the season today, but not enough.
Boyd – wont go longer than 5 IP still, has rain concerns like Webb.
Greinke – Ho hum, Greinke outing with 5+ IP, 4 K, solo HR to Eddie Rosario.
Bottom line… Pay up on SP if you can.
Not touching
Nola … He would be the next best option among the ‘studs’ I like today only that there’s a high % chance he has 8+ strikeouts, but also a risk of the long ball.
McClanahan … Because I am a pussy and am lacking the marbles….
Cole … No, I really don’t like many Twins. Just not sure you want to use Cole literally the DAY AFTER the Yankees starting pitcher was caught cheating and yet NOBODY is talking about this???
Manoah … Needs extra rest between starts to fix command.
Gallen … No
GUARDIANS
So let’s just get the obvious one out of the way now, right? Cleveland is facing Patrick Corbin and no, they’re not going to score 10 runs, but yes, Amed Rosario is the first person we are plugging into lineups today.
Update: AMED Rosario not starting. Gabe Arias in his place instead. Ugh. Awesome…
Amed Rosario, Oscar Gonzalez, Gabriel Arias, Jose Ramirez, Josh Bell
PHILLIES
Suck, suck, suck, boom. Suck, suck, suck, boom. I think we have a trend here with the Phillies? Sorry but I refuse to believe they go an entire weekend in Cincinnati and Turner/Realmuto/Bohm/Castellanos do not go off. Post rain/storm weather in Cincinnati and HR prone Luis Cessa, Philly is bombs away.
- Kyle Schwarber, Alec Bohm
- Value Donkey Play: Josh Harrison
Other hitting notes …
Tampa Bay Rays
Manoah is going to be better, but I don’t love that he’s not getting an extra days rest after his command struggles. I think the pitch clock is wearing on him and his big frame right now and he’s gotta fix his command before he is on. So while he will be better, Brandon Lowe and Luke Raley are excellent lefty picks against him.
St. Louis Cardinals
Keller is due to get hit and most dont like the ‘he is due’ analysis, but it’s just a simple fact folks. Roster construction has me off the Cardinals and that is tied entirely to their price tags. Happy birthday to the GOAT, Nolan Arenado, but you’re guessing with the rest of this lineup and most are pricey.
Spots I am avoiding
Braves/Royals
Angels/Red Sox
CATCHER
- JT Realmuto
- Find the cheapest dude who is playing, click him, move on.
FIRST BASE
- Luke Raley (DK)
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
- Josh Bell
SECOND BASE
- Brandon Lowe
- Andres Gimenez
- Edouard Julien … $2200 on DK and definitely helps get two stud SP’s in.
- Gabriel Arias
THIRD BASE
- Alec Bohm (Better at 1B on DK today given depth here)
- Nolan Arenado … It’s his birthday
- Jose Ramirez
- Josh Harrison
SHORTSTOP
Amed Rosario- Trea Turner
- Zach Neto … Similar logic here as Julien, young prospect who is still min price that can do help, but Rosario and Turner are such solid picks today I’m not sure you need to be this cute. Leading off today as well. Just sucks because this is a STRONG position if you are building around stacks.
- Anthony Volpe
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Schwarber
- Oscar Gonzalez
- Luke Raley
- Jazz Chisholm Jr … Gallen is known for being someone who loved to throw over to first and while he has adjusted to the new rules, I still expect the Marlins to try and run at will on him whenever they can.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Nick Castellanos
- Max Kepler
OUTFIELD – Value
- Eddie Rosario
- Oswaldo Cabrera
- Whit Merrifield
- Kyle Schwarber – OF – Phillies – Chairman of The Dongers Club
Amed Rosario – SS – Guardians- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Whit Merrifield – OF/2B – Blue Jays
- Alec Bohm – 3B – Phillies
- Vlad Guerrero Jr – 1B – Blue Jays
- Brandon Lowe – 2B – Rays
- Some random 2k catcher that everyone has
- BONUS ……….. Luke Raley – OF – Rays
DRAFTKINGS CORE
Sandy Alcantara
Alec Bohm (1B)
Oscar Gonzalez
FANDUEL CORE
Sandy Alcantara
Trea Turner
Kyle Schwarber
FAVORITE BET(s)
Angels ML
Angels/Red Sox under 9.5
Braves/Royals under 8.5
Sunday Funday Parlay:
Angels ML + Jays ML + Marlins ML + Royals ML
TOP PROP(s) OF THE DAY
Sandy Alcantara over 5.5 strikeouts
Shane Bieber over 5.5 strikeouts
Pablo Lopez under 6.5 strikeouts
AFTERNOON SLATE THOUGHTS
NYM vs OAK … You need 3 Mets today. You definitely want 3 Mets today.
CHC vs LAD … Neither team is hitting a ton, boy did I whiff on that over last night. So here come the runs today? Probably not
MIL vs SD … Darvish is #1 SP on this slate. Game leans under.
COL vs SEA … Castillo is popular SP2, but I expect Colorado to get to him.
SP: Darvish, Urias
Top Stack(s): Mets, Mariners
Contrarian: Rockies, Athletics
Favorite Hitters: S. Marte, Jesus Aguilar, JD Martinez, Jurickson Profar, Kris Bryant
Bets: NYM/OAK over 9, MIL/SD under 8, Rockies ML
SHOWDOWN
Under 8
Jose Abreu over 1.5 total bases