Finally a perfect Friday. A 15 game MLB slate with a 2:20 Showdown Cubs game, a couple senior citizen circuit turbo games and then our main 12 game slate tonight which includes Yusei Kikuchi vs the Yankees and the Royals trying to solve Shohei Ohtani.
WEATHER
WSH at MIN: Cold, ugly, miserable, depressing. Also known as, Minnesota.
MIA at CLE: Rain in Cleveland, which sucks because we miss LiC with Jazz going there. I dont see how they get the game in.
Chase Field Roof = Open
AARON NOLA
It’s a pay up for pitching Friday night, with Nola being in a fantastic setup to bring home 10-12 strikeout performance vs the Rockies. I would even rank him above Ohtani on FanDuel considering not just the $2100 price difference but also because I hvae him getting 10+ strikeouts tonight. A nice ladder opportunity on his K props today as well.
SHOHEI OHTANI
What should I tell you? You want me, the Royals homer, to try and sell you on Royals in Anaheim? A place they always rake in? You want me to say that they’re getting out of cold Missouri and into warm LA and they suddenly start getting offense from Melendez, Salvy and Massey?
Do you wan’t me to tell you that they’re going to magically bring back Kevin Seitzer, Danny Tartabull and Rookie Year Bob Hamelin here tonight?
No. They’re not. Move on…
TYLER MAHLE
If this game does go, we gotta like Mahle vs the Nationals. They might not whiff a ton versus most pitchers, but Mahle can get 7 strikeouts out of this bad lineup in a cold and ugly Minnesota night.
Gave some consideration for: Nick Pivetta, JP Sears (value)
Do not like at all: George Kirby, Zac Gallen, Jon Gray
BLUE JAYS
Bichette, Guerrero, Merrifield, Chapman
Yes, I do actually believe Max Scherzer and other pitchers are using a modified rosin bag to get extra sticky stuff and this includes Domingo German. The only difference is that Domingo used soap to wash his hands and not alcohol, which is way more sticky. The bottom line is that Domingo’s about to get shellacked once again by RHH and seeing Toronto is not great for him in any way — well, no Teoscar Hernandez here helps, but he’ll smell his former Jays vs Domingo and do something on his own (more on that later).
CARDS vs MARINERS
SEA: Hernandez, France, Suarez, Rodriguez
STL: Arenado, Contreras, O’Neil
I love this game, and this series to be frank. The Mariners offense isn’t delivering enough outside of Julio but I see that changing tonight. Steven Matz? We’re worried about Steven Matz? No, 7 walks and 8 ER over his last two and continued inability to get deep into the game or RHH out is going to be a big issue.
ORIOLES
Rutschman, Mountcastle, Henderson
The Orioles at home vs a team with a bad bullpen and a SP who usually wont throw more than 85-90 pitches. Sets up well for them to put together a solid game, maybe not 12-13 type runs but they’ll have a couple big innings (like the 6th). Ball should travel well in Camden tonight as well.
Other teams who I like to have decent offensive nights
- Padres/D’Backs … Roof open, lean Arizona side.
- Oakland … Very contrarian vs Jon Gray, nice SE leverage too as these are cheap bats to pair with Ohtani/Nola.
- Houston … Not big on Houston in general this season but I like them to beat up on Atlanta today.
Expected Chalk Teams
- Phillies … Doubt they touch up Noah Davis early, limited data on him. They should hit him 2nd time through though.
- Angels … First game back after a long road trip. Would proceed with caution on fully stacking Angels.
- Orioles
CATCHER
- Willson Contreras
- Alejandro Kirk
- Adley Rutschman
FIRST BASE
This is a position to be a little contrarian with today. Vlad is an easy no brainer pick to pair with Bichette for the Jays RHH to beat up German, but we might see Brandon Belt wake up with the short porch in Yankee Stadium this weekend too.
Christian Walker has 3 multi-hit games over the last week with a double in each one. He has a surge of homers coming soon, it’s only a matter of time.
But my favorite gut pick is someone who isn’t in an ideal splits spot for him — Ty France. Love Seattle to hit Matz tonight, and France is a sneaky HR call I like here.
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
- Ty France
- Christian Walker
- Brandon Belt
SECOND BASE
Even though Kikuchi has had great games vs the Yankees in his career, Gleyber Torres is someone that profiles well vs him and has also been one Yankee to do very well vs the wild lefty.
- Gleyber Torres
- Tony Kemp
- Mauricio Dubon
- Nolan Gorman
THIRD BASE
Much like 1B tonight I prefer some contrarian picks here. Eugenio Suarez hasn’t shown it yet this season but vs Steven Matz is a nice time to buy into him. Brian Anderson is at home, so he’s a great play anytime in that scenario when facing a volatile pitcher like Pivetta. Arenado homers though…
- Nolan Arenado
- Eugenio Suarez
- Brian Anderson
SHORTSTOP
- Bo Bichette
- Anthony Volpe
- Gunnar Henderson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Teoscar Hernandez
- Kyle Tucker
- Corbin Carroll
- Jazz Chisholm Jr – Rain concerns only reason he is not the Chairman tonight.
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Ronald Acuna Jr
- Hunter Renfroe … KC will be using Ryan Yarbrough as the long relief pitcher today, good for Hunter.
- Julio Rodriguez
OUTFIELD – Value
- Riley Greene
- Anthony Santander
- Esteury Ruiz
- Robbie Grossman
- Franmil Reyes
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Riley Greene – OF – Tigers
- Brian Anderson – 3B – Brewers
- Teoscar Hernandez – OF – Mariners
- Willson Contreras – C – Cardinals
- Ty France – 1B – Mariners
- Gleyber Torres – 2B – Yankees
- Hunter Renfroe – OF – Angels
- BONUS …………. Ronald Acuna JR – OF – Braves
FAVORITE BET(s)
- Cardinals/Mariners over 8
- Astros ML
- Phillies -1.5 run line
TOP PROP(s) OF THE DAY
- Aaron Nola over 6.5 strikeouts