Happy Friday, fourteen total games as the Giants and Padres are off to Mexico for a brief weekend series at high altitude and high temps in Mexico this weekend. Not sure what slates they’ll throw those games on this weekend but you can hammer the overs in both games.
The Royals and Twins … yes, the Royals and Twins are playing a 4:00 PM EST game today as an island showdown game. I can only assume they are doing it at 4PM because the prime ice fishing time is 1pm-3pm, but no doubt the people in Minnesota will be drunk for … checks notes … Jordan Lyles vs Pablo Lopez!
The main slate has 11 games on it and a TON of great match-ups. So lets get to it.
Programming Note
I will have early article for Saturday and main on Sunday, but Rob Geriak and the Daily Diamond will fill in for Saturday night as I’ll be out of town this weekend.
WEATHER
Pirates at Nationals – Cross it off, should be 100% precipitation all day.
Braves at Nationals – Similar, but I don’t think it is as definite of a PPD.
There are some big names going tonight but the list falls off really quickly and then we get into some uneven spots tonight for SP2. The way it lays out, I would be comfortable going uncomfortable with SP2.
JACOB deGROM
New York is likely without Aaron Judge tonight, but that really doesn’t matter all that much. Good pitchers vs good teams is always a spot to look at because the ownership drops a little bit and … wait, this isn’t a good Yankee lineup, what am I trying to sell you on here?
Everything looks clean with deGrom right now, so unless he goes full Anthony Davis and leaves in the third inning we’re going to get a 30 point night from him on DK.
NICK PIVETTA
I doubt Pivetta is going to be touched by anyone today, but the Guardians offense is ice cold and should not be feared much right now. Yes, they put the ball in play however his curveball is getting the job done vs LHH with a 32% CSW rate and the weather in Fenway tonight is setup to help keep the ball in the park too.
ALEK MANOAH
I have to mention Manoah because his price remains a major discount. Yeah, we have Teoscar returning to Toronto but first game back feels like the emotions night where he winds up 0-4 with a walk. Jarred Kelenic is your defacto LHB that should give Manoah major fits today and likely jacks one out. But otherwise at $6900 if you could get 6 innings, 6 strikeouts and 2 ER allowed you would be good with that.
MAX FRIED
*** RAIN CONCERNS ***
It’s Max Fried season ya’ll. I remain confident he will work his way into the NL Cy Young award and his little injury in April was a smooth move considering he never does well in April. Since coming off the IL he’s thrown 79 and 107 pitches in his two starts, no ceiling issues there and the Mets offense had one good game last night vs bad Nationals pitching but aren’t as potent vs a crafty lefty like Fried. Strong complete game vibes from Fried tonight if the game does go.
Cheap and Dirty
Reds (Luis Cessa) vs Athletics (Drew Rucinski). Some of us are old enough to remember 1990 when it was Dave Stewart versus Jose Rijo in the World Series and boy have we come a long way since then. I mean, look at the Athletics, they’re … wait, they’re still in that same dumpster stadium for another year or so. Yeah, anyways, both guys are cheap and facing two really below average offenses. Rucinski is back from his tour in Korea where he was someone we used during the pandemic but really do not want to use tonight even at min price. I can’t imagine he is good for more than 60 pitches or so. Cessa I do like today, it should be the only time all season we consider Cessa as the Athletics come out of Anaheim and back into cold Oakland where they likely do not hit much at all.
NOTE: There is a chance that Oakland instead rolls out Kyle Muller tonight.
OTHER SP NOTES
- Luis Castillo makes his first Friday start of the season. Remember, we do not use Luis Castillo on Friday’s ever since he ripped our nuts off that one time like the Hyeena ripping the nuts off a Bull…. Oh, you haven’t seen that GIF? He… ah, nevermind, I’ll spare you today. Strikeout upside looks good, but I would only touch him in a pairing with Manoah for a pitchers duel game stack.
- Aaron Nola is “due” for a great start. Hard to expect it in Houston though.
- Clarke Schmidt pitched a GEM vs the Blue Jays in his last start, 8 K and 0 ER over 5 2/3 IP. But he only got up to 76 pitches and I’m still not confident he can repeat that efficiency every time out.
If not for rain/weather the Pirates would be the #1 stack today against old friend Chad Kuhl.
D’BACKS
Walker, Gurriel, Marte, Carroll
Yes, we have Coors Field options on the slate today and through the weekend with a lineup that benefits from the Rockies bad defense and large outfield. As always we check in on the pricing and find guys under 4k on DraftKings here in Coors Field – like Christian Walker batting cleanup most likely at $3800. Combined with Lourdes Gurriel, Ketel Marte and Corbin Carroll we have what should be a popular stack today that’s hard to ignore.
ANGELS
Trout, Ohtani, Rendon
Ohtani and Rendon are in good form here, they should hit Miley extremely well & we have Hunter Renfroe back in Miller Park as well. This is your expensive pay up stack to use in a non deGrom lineup OR get creative and roll Angels+deGrom+garbage from the 90 world series rematch.
CATCHER
- William Contreras
- JT Realmuto
- Cal Raleigh
- Christian Bethancourt
FIRST BASE
- Christian Walker
- Paul Goldschmidt
- Vlad Guerrero Jr
SECOND BASE
- Ketel Marte
- Brandon Drury
- Brandon Lowe
THIRD BASE
- Mike Brosseau
- Anthony Rendon
- KeBryan Hayes – Top pick here with Reynolds if the game does go.
SHORTSTOP
- Wander Franco
- Bo Bichette
- Geraldo Perdomo
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr
- Jarred Kelenic
- Shohei Ohtani
- Corbin Carroll
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Hunter Renfroe
- Mike Trout
- Kris Bryant
OUTFIELD – Value
- Harold Ramirez
- Henry Ramos
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr – OF – Diamondbacks – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Shohei Ohtani – OF – Angels
- Paul Goldschmidt – 1B – Cardinals
- Brandon Drury – 2B – Angels
- Harold Ramirez – OF – Rays
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Mike Brosseau – 3B – Brewers
- Bo Bichette – SS – Blue Jays
- BONUS ………… Hunter Renfroe – OF – Angels
FAVORITE BET(s)
- Angels/Brewers over 9
- BOS ML