SLATE NOTES
I am shocked, we keep the streak alive as both DK and FD have the same 9 game main slate today.
WEATHER
My goal here is to tell you the spots that you might need to monitor. I want to remind you once again that my belief is that more games will wind up playing than those which won’t and if a game has too much rain risk I won’t bother with a pitcher in the write-up on it.
If a game starts in a delay, I fade it. If a game starts on time, I play it. So do not sweat the weather at 4pm in the afternoon when a game locks at 7:30pm and remember that the DFS sites will unlock a game which is PPD that never starts on time. Too many people try to overthink weather and there are 180 days of MLB DFS, so why the hell are you worried about solving the 3 nights out of those 180 slates when there might be a slight ‘edge’ on weather. Just move on and manage your time better.
As for today… All games play.
- Wind blowing out in Chicago — Up to 20mph out to LF
- Warm in Washington DC
Cristian Javier (DK: $8,100, FD: $10,000)
The Tigers had their little fun in Houston last night, as they annually seem to do. Javier’s got a 30% DCPA strikeout matchup vs their projected lineup, the highest on the slate and also carries minimal risk potential.
Jacob deGrom (DK: $9,500, FD: $9,900)
It is possible that with Grayson Rodriguez being on the others side at min price (more on that below) that deGrom is not 80% owned. Throw in that the Orioles are legit really damn good and deGrom wasn’t really damn good in his first start and I would guess he is in the 20% range. Great time to buy into deGrom, who will get more comfortable as time goes on pitching in Texas and should rack up the K’s today.
Shane McClanahan (DK: $8,800)
No reason for me to be hard headed. Shane is without a doubt a good play against the Nationals even on a warm Wednesday afternoon in April. They’re bad and despite hitting Fleming last night and getting to see a LHP two days in a row they should not be avoided as a target to pick on given that they’re hitting barely above the Mendoza line and will keep rolling out Dominic Smith in the 3-hole.
Welcome to the Show – DraftKings Chalk?
Grayson Rodriguez … Generally I avoid rookie SP’s making their debut like the plague but I make exceptions for very few guys. Grayson is one of them, but today I’ll pass. His $4,000 price on DK ( and no price on FD ) is just comical given his arm talent. But he’s not quite ready yet and the Rangers lineup is good enough to scare me off taking him. Throw on top that we have lots of good SP options (and I didn’t even mention Webb, Cease, Cole, Nola, Lopez, Luzardo…) and there’s enough reason to pass on a rookie who could struggle to hit 12 DK fpts.
RAYS
Isaac Parades, Randy Arozarena
I want to say that Patrick Corbin pulls a good start out of his butt, but this isn’t it. Maybe in another 2-3 weeks he can do it but with good hitting weather and the inability to miss bats like Shane on the other side can he should be in line to have a long afternoon. Plus, he wasn’t exactly great with holding runners on back on Opening Day either, so run free Rays, run free.
ASTROS
Jeremy Pena, Jose Abreu
I’m definitely seeing the Astros taking care of business today and Jeremy Pena is the must to set the table. Alex Bregman remains the gap in this lineup given his annual early season struggles, but Pena-Abreu-Alvarez makes for a nice pay up stack
MARLINS
Garrett Cooper, Jazz Chisholm
Sleeper team today. Gimme the Fish against Pablo Lopez back in Miami today. They can run as well but Coop/Jazz will be the RBI machines if this team pays off.
CATCHER
- Omar Narvaez
- William Contreras
- Francisco Mejia
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Garrett Cooper
- Yandy Diaz
SECOND BASE
- Marcus Semien
- Isaac Parades (DK only, 3B on FD)
- Luis Arraez
THIRD BASE
- Josh Donaldson
- Yoan Moncada
- Brian Anderson … I shoulda mentioned this long time ago, but he has always hit well in Milwaukee and could be in for a big season there, although his lefty hitting teammate Mike Brosseaux for only $800 less is just as tempting
- Josh Jung
SHORTSTOP
- Jeremy Pena
- Wander Franco
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Randy Arozarena
- Jazz Chisholm Jr
- Alec Burleson … On a slate where you opt to the 4k SP2 or pay up, he is a very logical play if not using GrayRod as your SP2.
- Alex Verdugo
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Eloy Jimenez
- Bryan Reynolds … Boston better be glad that the Yankees didnt trade for him. Holy master of Fenway Park.
- Yordan Alvarez
- Byron Buxton
OUTFIELD – Value
- Corey Julks
- Chas McCormick
- Robbie Grossman
- Michael Conforto
- Jeremy Pena – SS – Astros – Chairman of The Dongers Club (+550)
- Omar Narvaez – C – Mets
- Jose Abreu – 1B – Astros
- Eloy Jimenez – OF – White Sox
- Isaac Parades – 2B – Rays
- Josh Donaldson – 3B – Yankees
- Jazz Chisholm Jr – OF – Marlins
- Alec Burleson – OF – Cardinals
- BONUS …………… Mike Brosseaux – 3B – Brewers
FAVORITE BET(s)
- Marlins +100
- Red Sox + Astros ML Parlay (+135)
Dogs … PARLAY(s) OF THE DAY
- Marlins (+100), Mets (+115), Giants (+120) … +846
TOP PROP(s) OF THE DAY
Pitchers
- Gerrit Cole under 9.5 strikeouts
- Jesus Luzardo under 6.5 strikeouts
- Shane McClanahan over 5.5 strikeouts
Batters
- Jeremy Pena Anytime HR +550
- Nolan Arenado u0.5 hits (+205)
- Omar Narvaez o0.5 total bases (-115)