Mexico Open
That was a relaxing week! I didn’t play much PGA DFS since it was a team event. I mainly did one or two Showdowns simply to keep up with my DK Rewards (it isn’t much but it’s a carrot dangling in front of me and I want it!) LMAO!!
I did however manage to garner a ticket to the $2,222 entry fee MEGA Millionaire next week. Thank you Renner and the Donger’s Club!! I’m hoping to pad my bankroll even if I can’t pull off the miracle win. If I somehow do, you may not see an article for a couple of weeks – at least not one that is coherent with the words spelled correctly!
We are leaving the United States this week and heading to Mexico. The west coast to be exact! I was there in 2020 right before everything was shut down due to the pandemic, scamdemic, plandemic or whatever you wish to refer to it as. It’s nice! But, this field is not! The Elevated Events have made for better fields, but much like the week before Majors, it’s led to this.
Highlights: Vidanta
- Par 71 – 7,456 yards
- Wide fairways and less than demanding rough
- Paspalum greens and slow by tour standards – at least last year
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Driving Distance (DD)
- Even bad putters should be able to putt on these greens so… not worried too much with that stat.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)
| SG: T2G | DD |
| Jon Rahm ($12,000) | Nicolai Hojgaard ($9,500) |
| Boo Weekly ($6,000) – NO WAY!!! | Derek Ernst ($6,100) – NOPE! |
| Tony Finau ($10,700) | Matthias Schmid ($7,000) |
| Aaron Rai ($8,900) | Cameron Champ ($7,100) |
| Wyndham Clark ($9,700) | Vincent Norrman ($7,200) |
| Charley Hoffman ($7,200) – No thanks!! | Luke List ($7,800) |
| Ben Martin ($8,600) | Kyle Westmoreland ($6,300) – WHO? |
| Robby Shelton ($8,000) | Trevor Cone ($6,400) – Again, WHO? |
| Patrick Rodgers ($9,300) | Jon Rahm ($12,000) |
| Stephan Jaeger ($8,200) | Dylan Frittelli ($6,800) |
Ben An ($9,100) is just below Jaeger in SG: T2G so don’t ignore him either. Now, as for the other stats. PFFFT!!! This is why I don’t like to rely on stats at the end-all-be-all! Especially driving distance. Plenty of guys can hit it a country mile, but can’t do shit with it after that! I once played with a guy that got the longest drive in a tournament. He hit it about 340 on a 420-yard Par 4 (70 yards past my “bombed” tee shot). When they asked what he got on the hole at the awards ceremony, I laughed! IT WAS A 10! And that was with two putts!!
So, there it is! Do with it what you wish! As I’ve said, I’m more of a gut, current form, course history kind of guy!
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History: Only one year so this is a tough one to rely on this week. But, Jon Rahm ($12,000) and Tony Finau ($10,700) were 1 & 2 last year.
Gut/My Favorites: Jon Rahm ($12,000); Ben An ($9,100); Wyndham Clark ($9,700); and my personal favorite – Nicolai Hojgaard ($9,500)
In all honesty, Rahm could have been priced much higher this week given he is the clear favorite – and it’s not close. However, pricing him at $15,000 or higher would make it an easy fade.
$7,500 to $8,900
There really isn’t any reason to say a lot about any guy this week. That’s how boring this field appears to be. But, watch! If Rahm doesn’t lap the field, we’ll have a 4 or 5-man playoff!
- Aaron Rai ($8,900)**
- Ben Martin ($8,600)**
- Stephan Jaeger ($8,200)
- Chez Reavie ($7,700)
$7,000 to $7,400
- Akshay Bhatia ($7,400)**
- Andrew Novak ($7,300)**
- Vincent Norrman ($7,200)
- Augusto Nunez ($7,000)
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” –
- Tano Goya ($6,700)
- Satoshi Kodaira ($6,700)
- Bill Haas ($6,500) – he always seems to play well in events like this.
- Michael Gligic ($6,400)
LONGSHOT
Alejandro Tosti ($6,500)
If I’m going to play a guy as a longshot, it’s not going to be the sub-$7,500 guy that hits it a mile. This is a Korn Ferry Tour guy whose last four events have been T22-T10-T7-T25. His total score has been between (-9) and (-17) in each of those. That means he makes birdies and better. On a relatively easy course with a depleted field, a guy like this who is playing well can make a showing. At $6,500, there isn’t much risk and it may allow you to get Rahm and either Finau or Clark paired in a lineup. Personally, I like Hojgaard too, but you knew that already from above.
Personally, I’m playing light again this week. I just don’t have the desire to pump a bunch of money into an event that may make Jim Nance nod off if not for the big pile of money he gets to sit on to stay awake.
The next few weeks will be more exciting with an Elevated Event (Wells Fargo) and the PGA Championship two weeks after that.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!