RBC Heritage
Well, can we get a week without a disappointment? I guess we all can avoid the Will Zalatoris enticement for the rest of the year. I hate to see it. However, this is a great indicator as to WHY the PGA needs to get better at injury reporting. Of course, nothing will stop the in-tournament withdrawals, but guys should have to withdraw at least twelve hours before the beginning of tee times if they are potentially physically (or emotionally today too I guess) going to be unable to tee it up. And, yes, that’s for the benefit of DFS players because no one else cares.
Highlights: Harbourtown
- Par 71 – 7,099 yards
- Narrow fairways that are made even more narrow by overhanging trees
- Bermuda Greens – much slower than Augusta
This is another elevated event so the player pool shouldn’t suck! Although, we do have some guys that have already withdrawn.
For statistical analysis, outside of experience, I think we need to look at the following:
- Driving Accuracy (DA)
- Greens in Regulation (GIR)
Length is not a requirement here. Keeping it in the fairway and hitting greens are! And, yes, these will likely be names you aren’t used to seeing.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)
| Driving Accuracy | GIR % |
| Ben Martin ($7,100) | Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) |
| Ryan Moore ($6,100) | Tyler Duncan ($6,800) |
| Satoshi Kodaira ($6,300) | Jason Dufner ($6,100) |
| Mark Hubbard ($6,500) | Stephan Jaeger ($7,000) |
| Tyler Duncan ($6,800) | Jon Rahm ($11,100) |
| Kramer Hickok ($6,500) | Sam Stevens ($7,000) |
| Russell Henley ($7,800) | Carson (NOT CAM) Young ($6,100) |
| Sungjae Im ($8,600) | Satoshi Kodaira ($6,300) |
| Collin Morkawa ($10,000) | Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) |
| Tom Kim ($8,500) | Akshay Bhatia ($6,800) |
All I can say about that is, WOW! All this really does is tell me how bad a lot of the higher-priced guys have been hitting fairways and greens. Now, in their defense, the style of play associated with the courses played in the last four weeks (stats are on last 16 rounds) is probably much different than the tight fairways and small greens at Harbourtown.
It does change dramatically if we extend it out to the last 36 rounds. For example, GIR% in those rounds gives us:
Scottie Scheffler, Tony Finau, Patrick Cantlay, J. T. Poston, Jon Rahm, Corey Conners, Russell Knox, Tom Kim, Collin Morikawa, and Sepp Straka (in that order)
It’s all relative, but I like to give you the data just so you are going 100% with what I think – because the last couple of weeks haven’t been the best.
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History: Patrick Cantlay ($10,300) & Jordan Spieth ($10,400)
Gut/My Favorites: Patrick Cantlay ($10,300); Cameron Young ($9,600) and Max Homa ($9,100)
I’ve heard rumors that Spieth may withdraw so watch that closely. I also like Viktor Hovland ($9,800) but his short game isn’t the best and he’s in the 50s as far as DA and GIR%. Still, his only appearance her resulted in a T21.
Patrick Cantlay is my favorite this week. That’s why he’s listed on both. He missed the cut in 2021 but his other four attempts at this track have all resulted in Top 10s – including a 2nd last year.
$7,500 to $8,900
We will still make good progress with guys in this tier just like last week. Look, you can only get one or two of the guys in the $9K and above range and still be able to put together a good lineup. All the guys in that range can win, but essentially you need to miss the guy that misses the cut – and there always seems to be at least one.
- Justin Thomas ($8,900)** – Why? He missed the cut last week. Yes, that’s why! Look, a guy at this level of play in Tier 2 (yeah, just barely) is a no-brainer. It’s even more of a no-brainer to me when he’s pissed because he didn’t play well in Round 2 last week. I’m basing that on the shitty weather, not his game.
- Sungjae Im ($8,600)** – Top 25s in his last two years. In the Top 10 in both categories of important statistics (if you take it out to 36 rounds in GIR%) and a very “controlled” style player. That should play well here.
- Shane Lowry ($8,300) – I say this with love! The “Round Mound of Harbourtown” will play well this week. A T16 last week and, in his last four visits to H-Town – T3-T9-MC-T3!
- Tommy Fleetwood ($8,100) – He’s back as one of my favorites when he’s priced in the upper $7k/lower $8K range. He can explode for a low round at any time. If he makes the cut, and I think he will, don’t be afraid to use him in a Showdown on Saturday or Sunday.
- Tom Kim ($8,500) – Bonus Play! No history, but his game should fit well.
Again, like last week, other than the FOMO on the winner, I can (and probably will) make a lineup with just guys in this Tier. Others that are HIGHLY VIABLE:
- Corey Conners ($7,800) – Yeah, he sucked last week but you know my philosophy on prior week’s winners
- Matt Kuchar ($7,700) – COURSE HORSE ALERT (T3-T18-T41-2nd-T23-T11-T9-5th-Win-T35)! See a MC in there? Me neither!
- Russell Henley ($7,800) – He’s playing well as of late. Better than this price!
- Justin Rose ($7,700) – at this price, reward definitely exceeds risk.
$7,000 to $7,400
- Adam Scott ($7,400)** – No experience, but again, he usually a “hit fairway – hit green” kind of guy.
- J. T. Poston ($7,300)** – Course History (T3-MC-T8-T6)! If he makes it to the weekend, it could be a huge payoff.
- Sepp Straka ($7,200)
- Ryan Fox ($7,200)
- Matt Wallace ($7,300) – A bonus! He’s been playing well lately and finished Top 20 here in 2021.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” –
- J. J. Spaun ($6,900) – hasn’t really played well here, but he’s been Top 25 in his last two events.
- Patton Kizzire ($6,700)
- Lucas Glover ($6,600)
LONGSHOT
Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,100)
He is one of the ones I like to play because he’s usually cheap and is a good cut maker. He’s made three straight cuts and 5 of his last 6. T33 and T28 here so, it is a good risk/reward scenario in my opinion.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!