THE MASTERS
From a cashing standpoint, last week wasn’t much better for me than the week before. My gut let me down in the top tier, but course history proved to be spot on.
I’m not overly disappointed with the other calls. The picks at $7,400 and below are tough in weeks where the field is so weak. That’s not the case this week. Last week, we had to decide between Akshay Bhatia and Ben Martin. This week, we get to decide between Si Woo Kim, Patrick Reed, Keegan Bradley, Chris Kirk and Abraham Ancer. Apples-to-Apples, right?
This week we also have the internal grudge match of PGA Tour vs. LIV! It shouldn’t matter, but we both know it will – at least to the announcers. The hardest thing for me to judge with these guys coming from LIV is how are they really playing? You only play 3 rounds per week and you have no fear of missing a cut or a paycheck. I think the best thing will be to rely on course history where there is some. Some guys, I may just have a good feeling about.
OK, here we go! Major #1! Oh, and FYI, only the Top 50 and ties make the cut. They also removed the old rule of “anyone within 10 strokes of the leader”. Getting 6/6 this week will be tough.
Highlights: Augusta National
- Par 72 – 7,435 yards
- Wide fairways
- Large bentgrass greens
- Greens are undulating and fast – this is a key at Augusta.
It isn’t necessary to highlight Augusta much because, if you know, you know!
For statistical analysis, outside of experience, I think we need to look at the following:
- Strokes Gained – Around-the-Green (SG: ATG)
- Strokes Gained – Putting (SG: P)
Avoiding 3-putts will be important as well as the ability to get shots “up-and-down” when you miss a green.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)
| SG: ATG | SG: P |
| Jason Day ($8,700) | Harris English ($6,700) |
| Patrick Reed ($7,300) | Taylor Moore ($7,300) |
| Jordan Spieth ($9,700) | Jon Rahm ($10,800) |
| Chris Kirk ($7,100) | Jason Day ($8,700) |
| Danny Willett ($6,600) | Aaron Wise ($7,200) |
| Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) | Max Homa ($9,200) |
| Kevin Na ($6,500) | Sam Burns ($8,300) |
| Talor Gooch ($6,800) | Adam Svensson ($6,500) |
| Scott Stallings ($6,300) | Chris Kirk ($7,100) |
| Scottie Scheffler ($11,100) | Brooks Koepka ($7,600) |
It’s not uncommon for guys that are priced low in Majors to be high in the categories that suit a course. The best thing about Augusta when we are looking at The Masters is that it is the same course every year. This allows us to look at Course History in conjunction with scoring categories.
If you notice, even some of the popular plays would fit well in a balanced lineup simply by looking at these two categories. With an $8,333 average price, it’s kind of nice to see Jason Day ($8,700), Max Homa ($9,200), Sam Burns ($8,300) and Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) showing up in at least one of these categories. Chris Kirk, who is playing very well lately, is in both at $7,100. I will probably start a lineup with Kirk and Day and still have $34,200 to spend ($8,550 per player). I’d be quite comfortable on Thursday morning with that lineup, but we all know PGA DFS rarely plays out the way we like.
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History:
The guy with the worst course history in this range is Max Homa ($9,200), but he’s only turned his game on in the last year or so I’m not as concerned with course history. They’re priced here for a reason.
Gut/My Favorites:
- Jon Rahm ($10,800)
- Scottie Scheffler ($11,100)
- Justin Thomas ($9,300)
- and, yes, Max Homa ($9,200)
Collin Morikawa and Xander Schauffele are also very viable choices here. Frankly, you can take any combination of two (or even three) of these guys and still get very good choices in the lower tiers. Now, don’t go Scheffler, Rahm and McIlory because THAT WON’T WORK!
$7,500 to $8,900
I think this may be the bread-and-butter tier for you this week. If you’re not concerned that one of the Top 10 priced guys will win it (which the odds do probably favor), you can put together a very solid lineup without touching any other tier – well maybe include the guy you think will win.
- Jason Day ($8,700)** – I may jinx him with this pick, but based on his recent play and stats, he’s probably my favorite non-five figure guy this week. J-Day hasn’t played well the last couple of years which is reflected in missing his last two cuts here and not playing last year. His game this year is much different than last couple. Before the MCs, he was T5-T20-T22-T10-T28-T20-3rd.
- Will Zalatoris ($8,200)** – Yes, I know, I said I would probably be off him for a while after his match play collapse, but it was apparently an illness. And, I can’t ignore two trips to Augusta and T6 being his worst performance. This is a course that I think fits his game very well.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400) – T14-Win-T13-T32-19th-T11-T7-5th! Anything else?
Since this is the “meat of the lineup” area, I’m going to give you a few more very usable name (even some on the LIV Tour):
- Dustin Johnson ($8,800); Sam Burns ($8,300) – think he’s righted the ship; Sungjae Im ($8,100); Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700); Corey Conners ($7,600) – T6-T8-T10; and Viktor Hovland ($8,500)
$7,000 to $7,400
- Si Woo Kim ($7,400)** – He’s playing well and his course history shows he likes to play at Augusta. He’s one of those guys without the pressure to win that you could see in one of the final few groups on Saturday and/or Sunday.
- Patrick Reed ($7,300)** – Do I like his current attitude? No. Do I like the fact that you always know what he’s thinking? Yes. Do I like his chances at Augusta? Hell, yes! I don’t agree with the LIV philosophy, but I don’t have to. If a guy can play, he can play.
- Louis Oosthuizen ($7,200) – another LIV defector that just loves Augusta.
- Mito Pereira ($7,200) – This is a guy with ZERO experience here, but something tells me he can play this course. You won’t find me liking many people at Augusta that have never played here, but I’ll risk it with Mito at this price.
- Chris Kirk ($7,100)** – I know I picked three favorites here, but Chris Kirk has four Top 10s in his last eight events, including a Win. But, also two missed cuts. Look, anyone that has watched his recent play will agree this is a cheap price. Reward is greater than Risk!
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” – Majors Style! It’s viable!
- Ryan Fox ($6,700) – not a great performance last week, but it gives this Augusta rookie extra time to practice on the course. Prior to last week’s MC, he had 5 Top 20s in 7 events.
- Kevin Na ($6,500) – I’m not a Kevin Na fan, but I’m also not a Kevin Na hater. He left for LIV because he’s a guy that, in my opinion, needs a guaranteed prize pool so he doesn’t have to make cuts – at least at this point in his career. However, if he could play Augusta every week, he’d probably be very well off financially. He’s been Top 15 in each of the last three years.
- Danny Willett ($6,600) – he won money for me here in 2016 when he won it and I guess I’ve got a little love for him because of that, but he’s also been playing better and I know he loves Augusta.
- Phil Mickelson ($6,400) – My only reason for picking Phil is because he inevitably plays well here. Now, is his game the same? Nope! Is his attitude the same? Nope! Can he still play Augusta? Yeah, he can.
LONGSHOT
Min Woo Lee ($7,600)
He was T14 in his first and only appearance here. He’s missed one cut all season. He will be able to think and work his way around Augusta.
Look, I’m not a LIV tour fan. That’s quite apparent. However, the guys can play or they wouldn’t be on a pro tour at all. What I don’t like about LIV is that it’s a “paid to show up” tour instead of a “play well to be paid” tour. The LIV model reminds me of the guaranteed contracts in the NFL. Once you get it, do you really give a damn how you play?
Answering that last question in the affirmative, in my opinion, is the exception to the rule and not the rule itself. That being said, don’t ignore the LIV guys at Augusta because you hate the LIV Tour. That’s not a good DFS strategy!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!