AT&T Byron Nelson
Well, here we are! The week before a Major and, already, several players in the original player pool have withdrawn for “undisclosed” reasons. Although, none of them are true difference makers unless they happen to have an outstanding week. However, we do have Jordan Spieth withdrawing with a wrist injury. That needs watched because it could affect next week – although he may be thinking the same thing because it’s minor and he doesn’t want to make it worse.
I’m guessing some of you may be wondering how I did in the Milli-maker I was in last week. I tried to update on Discord, but essentially, it was like this:
- On Friday, I’m cursing Cameron Young because he’s my only one near the cut line and I want 6/6 to the weekend – He makes it!
- On Saturday, I was winning $4K at the start of the day and as I’m sitting in Hershey Park with my daughter’s travel soccer team enjoying some downtime fun for them, I see my winnings go to $6K, then $10K, then $20K and, all of sudden, two-thirds of the way through the round, I’m in 3rd Place winning $60K.
- Then, shit-Sunday happens and one of my favorites, Viktor Hovland, decides he forgot how to play golf and shoots +6 for his Sunday round. $4K it is! Nice return but, damn, what it could have been!
So, I’m disappointed, but I’m not. That make any sense? On to this week!
TPC Craig Ranch is only in it’s 3rd year of hosting the AT&T Byron Nelson. There is a creek that crosses the course multiple times so there is a risk but the course is otherwise very “scorable” with wide fairways and large greens. K. H. Lee has won both of the times the event was played here shooting -25 and -26 so, prepare for higher scores in DFS.
While we do have some of the bigger names here, the pricing will not be as favorable as it was last week or as it will be next week. But, that’s not always a bad thing.
HERE…WE…GO!!
Highlights: TPC Craig Ranch
- Par 71 – 7,414 yards
- Flat course with Wide fairways (Zoysia grass – I want this at my house but my wife says no!)
- Large Bentgrass Greens
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Shots Gained Approach – (SG: APP)
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)
| SG: T2G | SG: APP |
| Scottie Scheffler ($11,900) | Scottie Scheffler ($11,900) |
| Tyrrell Hatton ($10,100) | Kevin Roy ($6,500) |
| Stephan Jaeger ($8,200) | Tyrrell Hatton ($10,100) |
| Tom Kim ($9,600) | Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000) |
| Hideki Matsuyama ($9,800) | Nate Lashley ($7,200) |
| Sam Stevens ($7,600) | Sam Stevens ($7,600) |
| Joseph Bramlett ($7,900) | Satoshi Kodaira ($6,400) |
| Kevin Roy ($6,500) | Erik van Rooyen ($7,100) |
| Jason Day ($9,400) | Stephan Jaeger ($8,200) |
| Si Woo Kim ($9,100) | Michael Kim ($7,500) |
Again, while important in the overall sense, I sometimes wonder how some of the names you see make the Top 10 but, yet, you fail to see them on a leaderboard anywhere. My guess here, their putting sucks! Sam Stevens for example. He’s 6th on both lists but has only barely made the cut in about ½ of the events he’s entered. Granted he finished 2nd at Valero (also in Texas) and T3 in Puntacana so he is playing better recently. So that may be justified – Current Form guy here!
But, Kevin Roy? Until I did this, I had no idea he even existed other than my weekly glossing over of his name on the entrant list. How can you be 8th and 2nd respectively with a T18 being your best finish (in a depleted field @ Vidanta) and only make 1/3 of your cuts? Again, stats are usable, but you can’t rely on them as your sole rationale.
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History:
K. H. Lee ($9,300) – Can’t get any better than 2 for 2 in Wins! However, I’m sure he isn’t the odds favorite.
Scottie Scheffler ($11,900) – T15 last year
Matt Kuchar ($9,000) – T12 & T17
Gut/My Favorites:
Scottie Scheffler ($10,500) – at $1,800 more than the next guy, this isn’t a recommendation on price. He is the elite pick though!
Tom Kim ($9,600); Hideki Matsuyama ($9,800); and Tyrrell Hatton ($10,100) in that order.
$7,500 to $8,900
- Stephan Jaeger ($8,200)** – The “Jaeger-bomb” is playing very consistently. He’s missed two cuts since last November.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($8,000)** – He was my pick every week around this price. Then, for some reason, I leaned away. I think I may have been high on him at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and he played horribly there. But his next three PGA events after that were T13-T28-T29 so I’m not sure what I was thinking. A T12 here last year is a confidence builder as well.
- Joseph Bramlett ($7,900) – I liked him before I saw his T2G game above. I was more enticed by his T7 finish here in 2021 and his T40-T10-T26 current form.
- Ben An ($8,600) – he disappointed last week, but had made 5 straight cuts prior to that. I think he gets back to that this week.
- Michael Kim ($7,500) – 7 straight cuts made and a 7th place finish last week.
$7,000 to $7,400
There isn’t a lot in either of the last two groups that excites me much this week. A couple of the guys have Top 25s from last year at Craig Ranch, but only a few of them are in good form coming in.
- Dylan Wu ($7,400)** – missed the cut here last year, but has three Top 25s in his last 5 events.
- Jimmy Walker ($7,100)** – That old guy? Yeah, him! I’m not sure what has ignited his game recently, but it’s good to see him healthy again. Last 5 events: T14-T15-Cut-T25-T22!
- Vincent Norrman ($7,200)
- Andrew Novak ($7,000) – purely a gut play in that he’s made five straight cuts and finished Top 15 at Valero. In case you haven’t guessed, I think Texas golf is an acquired taste! Some guys just thrive there! Scheffler being another one!
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” –
- Carson Young ($6,500)**
- Augusto Nunez ($6,700)
- Stewart Cink ($6,800)** – when in doubt, trust the veteran!
- David Micheluzzi ($6,600) – SEE BELOW!
LONGSHOT
David Micheluzzi ($6,600)
Sometimes I love weeks like this! Who the hell is this guy? But, sometimes you need to check it out to see and I did. He’s pretty damn good! At least, from what I can see as far as results. He played two World Tour events in November 2022 (6th and T10) and one a few weeks ago (T21). Now, he either limits when he plays or spends a lot of time on an Australian Tour that I can’t find. I’m sure he plays somewhere because the consistency is there. Look, if anything comes up on Craig Ranch to make the course more difficult, it will be the wind. Micheluzzi is Australian (although it does sound/look Italian)! Australian players are typically good in the wind.
If you want to play Scheffler and another guy at $8,500 or above, here’s your salary saver! If he makes the cut you’re getting 10-15x easily.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!