A twelve game main slate tonight as three games are in the Senior Citizen Sltae window starting at 6PM. If you are involved in that slate then you should lock in Francisco Lindor even though it’s really cold in Detroit and that game does have PPD risk, but I think he has a great game if it plays.
WEATHER
I expect all 12 games to play, still chilly in most spots with lingering clouds/light rain on the east coast.
The overall top 4 SP as of this morning on our projections model include two rookies, a road pitcher in Coors Field and Zac Gallen vs the Rangers. Of which Gallen is tempting as is Freddy Peralta, even in Coors Field, but I find myself not that enthusiastic with any of those options compared to what else we have.
I had Mariners rookie Bryce Miller as starting tomorrow with Gilbert today. Looks like I was wrong. I do not like Bryce Miller because we do not start rookies – even against the Athletics, although he is $4,000 on DraftKings which remains just dumb.
ZAC GALLEN
I had a difficult decision this off-season with my keeper team and I’m starting to regret that decision which was to deal away Gallen and keep a few other guys. I got good value for him but the way he is pitching right now nobody is better. His strikeout rates going on the road might be trending lower but I see no reason to really put much weight into that and Texas has some free swingers as well which should keep his recent trend going strong.
TYLER WELLS
There’s only $800 difference on DraftKings today between Wells and everyone’s new young darling Tanner Bibee. Both are facing really bad offenses and neither is going to throw 7+ IP, but why not ride Wells here vs the Royals in big Kauffman Stadium? Do we not think the Orioles will win? Do we not think he will strikeout 4+? He’s not gonna win you the slate, but at his price he’s my favorite ‘cheaper’ SP2.
FREDDY PERALTA
I trust Peralta in Coors to use him on DraftKings for some extra upside and with everyone likely going dirt cheap on SP2, I think this gives you what you might want if you want to be “different” without chopping your genitals off.
The key to Coors is missing bats, and whenever there is a guy who has the whiff rates like Peralta, you can take a gamble on them there. The slider should still break enough to get whiffs and if you look at his overall metrics comparing Miller Park to Coors Field, his expected HR totals are the same.
Also OK with …
- Hayden Wesneski (5300 on DK)
Not gonna touch
- Cole … Not enough K in CLE lineup
- Mason Miller
- Hunter Brown … I see Giants hitting well again – hard to fade here, but the youngin is gonna have a struggle at some point.
RED SOX
Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida, Kike
So I have owned a rental house for the better part of the last 15+ years and I’ve been doing some repairs to it lately, to include replacing the roof and some fascia across the front of the house. As part of this work, I have had to deal with a fucking pesky ass squirrel who decided he would rip the fascia off and make a little home right at the pitch of the roof. We’ve replaced the fascia a couple of times and this fucker continues to climb up a tree, jump over to the roof on the garage and continues to try and make his little nest on the corner of the home without even offering to do something for his free rent.
That squirrel reminds me of Yusei Kikuchi right now. How the fuck is this guy 4-0 with a 3.00 ERA and a 1.11 WHIP. He’s managed to not go full implosion despite allowing his usual 2HR/9 IP and a 45% hard hit rate. Well, my little bug eyed friend, the journey ends now. It’s time to break out the weapons and prepare for war.
LHP usually are ripe for the picking in Fenway because they’ll just give up line drive singles all game long and the Red Sox need to give the city something to cheer about right now. So lets end this little charade and take back which is ours…. or something like that.
TWINS
Jorge Polanco, Byron Buxton, Joey Gallo, Max Kepler
Yesterday I mentioned to some how Dansby Swanson had more HR than any other visiting player in the stadium he was playing in – and lookie there – batters in ballparks does matter. Well, the Twins in Chicago the last few seasons has been as sure of a lock as a fucking squirrel giving me headaches. Throw in HR prone Michael Kopech, the crappy Sox bullpen and we have all the HR upside one can ask for.
ANGELS
Ward, Trout, Rendone, Renfroe
This is one of the few decent weather spots for the outdoor stadiums today and both teams have major upside when drawing a southpaw, but I prefer the Angels being on the road and Matz being far worse than Sandoval.
CATCHER
- Adley Rutschman
- William Contreras
- Gabriel Moreno
FIRST BASE
- Justin Turner
- Anthony Rizzo
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr
SECOND BASE
- Jorge Polanco
- Ketel Marte
THIRD BASE
- Anthony Rendon
- Alex Bregman
- Rafael Devers
SHORTSTOP
- Xander Bogaerts
- Enrique Hernandez
- Dansby Swanson
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Max Kepler
- Mitch Haniger
- Yordan Alvarez
- Taylor Ward
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Masataka Yoshida
- Anthony Santander
- Hunter Renfroe
- George Springer
OUTFIELD – Value
- Jesse Winker
- Henry Ramos
- Justin Turner – 1B – Red Sox – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Jorge Polanco – 2B – Twins
- William Contreras – C – Brewers
- Max Kepler – OF – Twins
- Mitch Haniger – OF – Giants
- Xander Bogaerts – SS – Padres
- Anthony Rendon – 3B – Angels
- Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
- BONUS …. Anthony Rizzo – 1B – Yankees
FAVORITE BET(s)
- CUBS ML
- Angels/Cardinals over 9