PGA Championship
It’s time for Major #2!! Of course, once again, I won’t get to see much of the action over the weekend as my son is playing in a travel soccer tournament 3 ½ hours away. But, that definitely won’t stop me from trying to win some money!
This will be a typical week where you can put together multiple lineups with top tier names quite easily inside the salary cap. It will also be a Friday evening when you’re screaming “what he hell are you doing (insert $9K & up player’s name here)!! I’m telling you, it isn’t hard. Even starting with Rahm & Scheffler you still have $6,850 per player left. In a normal week, you get – well, you get shit! But this week, you have Kuchar, Thomas Pieters, Sepp Straka and Danny Willett. Hell, there are a couple of guys in the $6,500 and below range that are useable too. More on that later.
Oak Hill Country Club (East Course) is not a stranger to Major Championships. It’s hosted three U. S. Opens and three PGA Championships. The last was in 2013 and the course was restored in 2019. Trees were removed and greens were returned to pure bentgrass.
Let’s do this!
Highlights: Oak Hill Country Club (East Course)
- Par 70 – 7,394 yards
- Fairways aren’t narrow by many Major tournament standards and the removal of the trees has to help with errant shots
- Allens Creek runs throughout the course with water in play on 6 of the holes
- Rough – Some reports I have seen have stated that the rough wouldn’t be an issue. However, the players are saying that – even though not high – there is a lot of it.
- Bentgrass Greens
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Shots Gained Approach (SG: APP)
- Bogey Avoidance – (BOW%)
Typically, T2G and APP are keys, but Major Championships always appear to be a little different (other than the Masters which is in its own category). Usually, double-digit scores under Par are not typical. At the PGA here in 2013, (-10) was the winning score so that’s why I’m looking at Bogey Avoidance as another key factor. The winner, Jason Dufner, was the only one in double-digits.
Rather than do each of them individually as I have in past weeks, I’m going to look at the players using a very effective tool that I subscribe to. I’m going to put 40% on T2G, 40% on APP and 20% on BOW%.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Scottie Scheffler | $11,200 |
| Jon Rahm | $11,400 |
| Tony Finau | $ 9,500 |
| Mito Pereira | $ 7,000 |
| Xander Schauffele | $ 9,900 |
| Tom Kim | $ 8,000 |
| Collin Morikawa | $10,300 |
| Max Homa | $ 8,700 |
| Patrick Cantlay | $ 9,700 |
| Tom Hoge | $ 6,900 |
For more enticement: Tyrrell Hatton (11th); Jason Day (16th); and Viktor Hovland (17th)
This would be a spectacular leaderboard but we all know THAT WILL NOT HAPPEN!!
As always, use this for what you think you need to.
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are: (course history is limited since this isn’t a regular venue)
Course History: Rory McIlroy ($10,700) – I wouldn’t put much weight on it. Redesign and Rory’s been a little off lately.
2013 PGA –
Adam Scott (T5); Jason Day (T8); Dustin Johnson (T8); Rory McIlroy (T8); Keegan Bradley (T19); Hideki Matsuyama (T19); Rickie Fowler (T19);
Justin Rose (T33); Shane Lowry (T57); Chris Kirk (T57); Harris English (T61); Brooks Koepka (T70) and Gary Woodland (74th).
Gut/My Favorites: Scottie Scheffler ($11,200); Jon Rahm ($11,400); Xander Schauffele ($9,900); and Brooks Koepka ($10,100)
Look, this is a tough differentiation. Especially since the pricing will allow for multiple five-figure guys in a lineup. Scheffler, Schauffele, & Rahm are going to be VERY POPULAR given their current form. If you want to go off the reservation a little, maybe go:
- Koepka ($10,100) – history in Majors
- Cantlay ($9,700) – he’s going to win one at some point
- Sungjae Im ($9,000) – hasn’t been outside the Top 25 in weeks
$7,500 to $8,900 (“The Zone”)
This Tier, like a couple weeks ago, will be where you can separate yourself from the pack.
- Hideki Matsuyama ($8,600)** – This guy is just always there. You don’t see him coming, but, on Sunday, he’s there. He hasn’t really contended for the win at the PGA since 2017, but he’s been Top 25 in 5 of the last 7 years.
- Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500)** – When this guy gets hot (and I don’t mean under-the-collar because he can do that very well also), he is there in Majors. He’s coming off of a T5 and a T3 in the last two weeks. If he stays out of trouble, he really could win it.
- Max Homa ($8,700) – He’s struggled a little in recent weeks missing some cuts, but I think he has the game to compete.
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,400)** – PAY ATTENTION HERE!! I was off of Fitzpatrick early in the year because he was withdrawing or playing poorly due to a neck issue. Now, I’m good…really good with playing him! Out of the “favorites” in this group, I really have a feeling that he is in the mix on Sunday – possibly one of the last three groups.
- Adam Scott ($7,800) – He’s one of the guys that has played in the 2013 PGA at Oak Hill finishing in a tie for 5th at (-5). He’s also playing very well lately.
Because this Tier is full of quality players, you should also consider:
Jason Day ($8,900); Tom Kim ($8,000); Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000); and Rickie Fowler ($7,600)
$7,000 to $7,400
This isn’t a bad Tier this week, but honestly, there isn’t much jumping out at me and making me say “I must play him in a lineup”. Now, you will need to venture down here unless you are completely avoiding the Top Tier.
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,200)** – missed the cut in his only previous PGA Championship appearance, but he’s coming in making six straight cuts on the PGA and World Tours.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,200)** – Missed the cut in 2 of the 3 attempts at the PGA but he should be a good fit for this course.
- Mito Pereira ($7,000) – at this price and a T3 last year at the PGA it’s definitely worth a shot. I’m not much of a fan of the LIV Tour and its format/motives but you can’t minimize a guy’s talents simply because you disagree with his choices.
- Gary Woodland & Si Woo Kim ($7,100) – I’m lumping these two guys together because (1) they’re the same salary and (2) they are playing more like their “old selves”. I would only lean more towards Woodland because his history at the PGA is better.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” – Can’t call this Tier that this week simply because of the talent that is there. Will they win? Not likely! But these names have a really good shot at playing the weekend!
- Tom Hoge ($6,900)
- Matt Kuchar ($6,900)
- Adrian Meronk ($6,700)
- Harold Varner III ($6,600)
- Thorbjorn Olesen ($6,500)
- K. H. Lee ($6,700)
- Jimmy Walker ($6,300)
- David Micheluzzi ($6,000) – SEE BELOW!
LONGSHOT
David Micheluzzi ($6,000)
Yes folks! I’m doing it again! I’m glad he made this field and I’m glad that his price is still way down here. He is a talent! Yes, I know, he finished T67 last week but, admit it, you all thought I was on to something after that first round 65 didn’t you? Hey, other than the 2nd round, he was solid. Yeah, he was 14 shots out of the lead, but he also didn’t cost $10K. At $6,600 last week, he returned 12x in value. I’m thinking he makes the cut this week because he has a solid enough game to score low single-digits under par. And, I wouldn’t be surprised if single-digits under par is the winner this week.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!