Charles Schwab Challenge
On Thursday evening of last week, I was fully disgusted. On Friday, I felt better because I had several lineups with 6/6 but there were a lot of “barely made the cut” guys in there. Saturday was a shit show due to the weather, but it did help me get into contention For the record, I was winning more going into Sunday than I actually won, but all-in-all, it was a good event.
Oh, and the Michael Block show was outstanding!
I’m on Twitter – if I don’t get kicked off again – and I have the LIV Tour stuff in my feed. Now, I like Brooks Koepka and I wish he was playing a regular schedule. But, this damn account that writes for LIV is starting to piss me off! Just because Brooks won this week does not make him the best player in the world! A good showing at a Major does not constitute putting all these guys back in the OWGR. I think the writer for this account should go into politics. The shit it shovels pales only in comparison to anyone in Congress (or The White House for that matter). JUST SHUT THE HELL UP AND PLAY GOLF!! We all know these guys are great players!
Oh, and I’m all for letting them play in the Ryder Cup. It’s the United States vs. Europe, not the PGA vs. World Tour!
Now, back to the boring old PGA Tour. The dumbasses that think it should be important to perform well and improve to earn a living! But, alas, this is the world of professional sports!
I appreciate the fact that Renner lets me rant in my articles. Sports Illustrated would never let me cuss or question authority!
Let’s do this!
Highlights: Colonial
- Par 70 – 7,200 yards
- Narrow fairways with a lot of trees and rough that’s tough enough that it WILL get your attention
- Accuracy with the Driver is important
- Scoring will be tough – not Oak Hill tough – but still won’t be a scoring bonanza
- Bombers should not be automatic picks – this course will neutralize them somewhat
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Shots Gained Approach (SG: APP)
- Driving Accuracy (DA)
Again, like last week, rather than do each of them individually as I have in past weeks, I’m going to look at the players using a very effective tool that I subscribe to. I’m going to put 40% on T2G, 40% on DA and 20% on SG: APP.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Collin Morikawa | $10,400 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $11,500 |
| Si Woo Kim | $ 9,000 |
| Sungjae Im | $ 9,500 |
| Russell Henley | $ 8,800 |
| Viktor Hovland | $10,600 |
| Aaron Rai | $ 7,000 |
| Tom Hoge | $ 8,500 |
| Joel Dahmen | $ 7,000 |
| Justin Rose | $ 9,300 |
For more enticement: Tony Finau (11th), Max Homa (13th) & Tommy Fleetwood (17th) are also of interest to me this week.
Stats are stats!
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History:
Jordan Spieth ($9,900) – I’m still a little leery about the wrist, but this UT guy has been Top 10 in 8 of the last 10 years here. This includes a WIN and three 2nd or T2s. How he Hell do you argue with that! And, he’s not even 5-figures.
Tony Finau ($10,700); Chris Kirk ($9,100); and Justin Rose ($9,300)
Gut/My Favorites:
Jordan Spieth ($9,900); Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200); Scottie Scheffler ($11,500); Viktor Hovland ($10,600); and Sungjae Im ($9,500)
Why?
Spieth because I’d be crazy to ignore him even though he will be a very popular pick.
Fleetwood because he’s making every cut.
Scheffler & Hovland because they are the best players in this right now.
Im because he played so God-awful last week that people will forget he’s been Top 10 in 4 of his last 7 events before the PGA and Top 25 in the 3 that he wasn’t Top 10.
Max Homa ($10,100) isn’t listed above but I have a good feeling about him. I’m just not sure the price is what it should be. I was hoping he was going to be $9,500 or lower.
Collin Morikawa ($10,400) should also be a pick based on the stats above and I think he will be a good play if you want to get away from the Scheffler-Finau-Hovland sheep.
$7,500 to $8,900
This Tier is not “The Zone” this week. Although, there are still plenty of quality picks.
- Rickie Fowler ($8,900)** – I’m not holding “not making the cut last week” against any of these guys this week. Rickie has been a model of consistency prior to Oak Hill and Oak Hill took a piece of ass from a lot of guys!
- Cameron Davis ($8,600)** – Here is an “under the radar” guy who has been playing really well. T4 in the Oak Hill Hell-hole and a T7 here last year.
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,700) – Good history here and, again, prior to last week, had three straight Top 25s (Two Top 10s).
- Brendon Todd ($7,800) – Also making a lot of cuts this year! He has also been 3rd and T8 here in the last two years.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,700) – Nothing more than a good feeling here!
$7,000 to $7,400
We are now back to this tier being the “well, if I have to” tier. But, again, there are some very usable players.
- Joel Dahmen ($7,000) – He fits the statistical models here.
- Thomas Detry ($7,400)** – No history but he’s playing a lot here (PGA Tour) and playing well.
- Eric Cole ($7,200)** – Again, no history. However, a T15 at Oak Hill, a T23 at Byron Nelson (also in Texas) and a T5 at Vidanta make me feel good about this price/talent ratio.
- Sepp Straka ($7,000) – I’m not good at predicting Sepp. However, I’m riding the wave of some good play on Sunday at Oak Hill for a great price!
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” –
- Jimmy Walker ($6,500)
- Austin Eckroat ($6,700)
- Akshay Bhatia ($6,700)
- Andrew Novak ($6,400)
- Zach Johnson ($6,200) – Course History and no need for distance off the tee!
LONGSHOT
Vincent Norrman ($7,000)
I always like to go obscure with my Longshot. Frankly, if I don’t, it’s not a longshot. This Swede is not killing it but he has had three Top 20s in his last five. Of course, he missed the cut in the other two. He did have a T8 at the Byron Nelson although that’s not as difficult of a course.
“The Favorite Longshot” – Michael Block ($6,900) – I think this won’t get any better than it did last week, but dammit, I’m rooting for him anyway!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!