The Memorial
Welcome to “Jack’s Place”! This is another elevated event so we will have a strong field with a little more forgiveness in the pricing.
Last week wasn’t bad at all. I had Grillo in a lineup or two so I made a little. Nothing big, but enough to fund this week’s expenditures. I did have a FanDuel lineup with 6/6 but I’ve found FanDuel to have two interesting characteristics for me:
- Lineups seem easier to make with guys that “should” perform well
- I never seem to get those guys in my lineup – 6/6 barely cashes in a lot of cases
This week, we are off to Muirfield Village. Typically, this is not a course where the winning scored exceeds double-digits. At least, if it does, not by much. The last two years has been (-13) and the prior year was (-9). That’s Horschel, Cantlay and Rahm – not a bunch of hacks either.
Wide fairways help the bombers, but the usually long rough will punish inaccuracy. The bentgrass greens are usually fast.
Let’s do this!
Highlights: Muirfield Village
- Par 72 – 7,571 yards (Not a short course)
- Wide fairways and punishing rough
- Fast Bentgrass Greens
- Wind and pin placements can/will affect the scoring so we will see how that pans out
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Tee-to-Green (SG: T2G)
- Shots Gained Approach (SG: APP)
- Driving Accuracy (DA)
Again, like last week, rather than do each of them individually as I have in past weeks, I’m going to look at the players using a very effective tool that I subscribe to. I’m going to put 40% on T2G, 40% on DA and 20% on SG: APP.
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)-Weighted Stats noted Above
| Patrick Cantlay | $10,500 |
| Sungjae Im | $ 9,100 |
| Jon Rahm | $11,000 |
| Tom Kim | $ 7,900 |
| Collin Morikawa | $ 9,900 |
| Scottie Scheffler | $11,300 |
| Jason Day | $ 9,400 |
| Tyrrell Hatton | $ 9,300 |
| Viktor Hovland | $ 9,700 |
| Xander Schauffele | $10,200 |
TOLD YOU IT WAS A STRONG FIELD!!
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History:
Patrick Cantlay ($10,500) – Cantlay has played here six times. He has FOUR Top 5s (including 2 Wins). He has never missed a cut.
Xander Schauffele ($10,200) – Missed the cut in 2018 and hasn’t missed since. Also, T18-T11-T13-T14 is nothing to sneeze at.
Rory McIlroy ($10,600) – I’m not counting Rory out even though I don’t think he’s been playing up to par recently – pun intended.
Gut/My Favorites:
Patrick Cantlay ($10,500) – SEE ABOVE
Tyrrell Hatton ($9,300) – Only played here once (T33 in 2019) but he’s on a “heater” lately. And, fortunately, it’s not “under his collar” for once.
Scottie Scheffler ($11,300) – 3rd and T22 in his only two events here but please tell me how you cannot play him. Even at this price, you can find enough to make it worthwhile. Honestly, I’ve done two lineups already and one has Scheffler-Cantlay and I’m not upset about the other four.
Jon Rahm ($11,000) and Viktor Hovland ($9,700) must also be considered given their current form.
Sungjae Im ($9,100) – I like Sungjae, but something about his game the last couple of weeks worries me a little. He went from three straight Top 10s to two missed cuts. Now, that was Oak Hill and Colonial, but still, I never expected it. I think he rights the ship this week but I’m not going heavy on him – if at all.
$7,500 to $8,900
This Tier is, once again, “The Zone” this week. You can’t just play in this range if you start Scheffler-Cantlay like I did above, but Cantlay-Hovland or Cantlay-Hatton you can.
PSA: Can you tell I like Cantlay?
- Rickie Fowler ($8,500)** – His course history here isn’t Top Tier but it’s very good. Four Top 15s (two Top 10s) in his last 6 events here. And, remember, Rickie isn’t struggling like he has the last two years.
- Jordan Spieth ($8,900) – Last week, I wasn’t comfortable with the wrist. I’m still not but I also haven’t seen anything saying that it affected him last week at Colonial. He’s made 9 of the last 10 cuts at The Memorial and I think “Jack’s Place” elevates a lot of these guys performances. It’s not a Major, but it is “Jack”!
- Si Woo Kim ($8,000) – Another guy that seems to like to play here.
- Adam Scott ($8,000)** – He has made the cut every time he’s played at Muirfield since 2013. He has not missed a cut in the 2022-23 season. I think this is probably the most solid play in this tier when you look at it from both a potential finish and cost perspective.
$7,000 to $7,400
I don’t want to live in this tier but I can use several guys in it to make my Top 3 or 4 core guys come from the Top Tier/2nd Tier.
- Ben An ($7,400) – He’s really playing well and this price should be beneficial since he probably has a better than 75% chance of making the cut.
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,200)** – T37 and T22 in his two appearances here. He has two Top 25s in his last three events. At this price, it’s well worth the risk.
- Ryan Fox ($7,100)** – Played here in 2019 and missed the cut. However, he’s been playing in the U. S. the last two weeks and finished T21 & T23. Would you take a Top 25 for $7,100? If you say no, why are you playing PGA DFS?
- Nicolai Hojgaard ($7,000) – No experience but I like this guy’s game. I’ll risk a missed cut to save the funds.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” –
- Alex Smalley ($6,800)
- Eric Cole ($6,900)
- Garrick Higgo ($6,700) – T18 here last year.
- Akshay Bhatia ($6,500)
- Sam Stevens ($6,500) – He’s been playing very consistently so this price is a steal. He’s made four straight cuts and has a 2nd place finish and a T3 this year.
LONGSHOT
Kevin Streelman ($6,700)
Now, here’s a guy I never thought I’d recommend. Maybe it’s because I had to use him to fill out my Scheffler-Cantlay lineup. Nah! Look, remember what we’ve said before. Some guys are just course horses. Streelman missed the cut here last year, but prior to that it was T13-T54-4th-T44-T13-T8-T18! His last two events this year have been T9-T18. It’s either going to end or we trust the horse and it continues! It isn’t Derby Week, but I’m taking Streelman at the line!
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!