Happy Friday! A near full Main slate, with 3 games in the early Turbo window tonight.
Tonight is the night. It’s going to come out and hit us like a ton of bricks. One year ago (around this time) we had a Friday night slate where it felt like there were about 6 HR per game. Today could be that day for the 2023 season because we have a combination of three important factors. #1. Some bad SP. #2. Some Bullpens falling apart and #3. Some increased Humidity tonight around the league. We also have mostly non divisional series this weekend as well, which is always a nice boost too.
It’s about to get very warm and the balls are gonna be flying my friends.
WEATHER
It’s not hot. But the humidity numbers do catch my eye everywhere. No PPD risk today.
There really isn’t one guy who gets the top arm slot above everyone else. On DraftKings there is just one pitcher who is above 10k (Joe Ryan) and a total of 12 pitchers between 7k and 9k with most of the ones who have the best K% upside also having some bad SLG risk (Kikuchi, Miller, Detmers)
TOP ARM
Anthony DeSclafani (DK: $8700, FD: $9100) … The Italian was not good to us the last time we went with him as he had a rough first inning before settling in. That’s not a concern vs the Marlins who are near the bottom in 1st run production and do not have Jazz Chisholm either. We should also be able to get a 90+ pitch performance here after only throwing 77 in his last start. Gimme the Italian on a late Friday night to put away the dead bodies after dark.
SP2 OPTIONS
Reid Detmers (DK: $7900, FD: $8100) … A few mid range options here are lefties who have risk, comparable options such as Ranger Suarez and Martin Perez are not able to offset that risk with strikeouts like Detmers should manage to do. Get through without screwing up against Farmer/Polanco part of the order and it’s smooth sailing after that 6-9 junk.
Matthew Boyd (DK: $7100) … This is who Matt Boyd is, he follows up disaster start (55 pitches, 1.1 IP, 5 H, 4 BB, 5 ER) with a game where he has 6 strikeouts through 3 innings before racking that pitch count up by the 5th. You can’t destroy the field with Boyd, but the Nats after a long road trip are worth picking on in a bounce back Boyd game.
FAVORITE STACK
Orioles (Mountcastle, Rustchman, Hays) … The Hays/Mountcastle combination against Kikuchi is enough to give anyone a little pitch if you know what I mean. There aren’t many better spots than Mountcastle vs Kikuchi, I mean it’s up there with Longoria and Sabathia, Braun and Philly and Arenado when he is angry… Throw on top a friendly Toronto stadium to either go opposite (the Baltimore RHH are going to go INSANE this weekend) field and we’re disappointed tonight if we don’t have 8 runs and 4 HR from the Birds… The Orange and Black ones that is.
SECONDARY STACKS
Rangers (Seager, Garcia, Lowe) … It’s kinda rare that a name pops up who I haven’t heard of, but what the hell is a Karl Kauffman anyways and how long until the Royals trade for him? The PCL isn’t a pitcher friendly environment, but having a 7+ ERA there also isn’t great. Most the time we want a prospect who might be top 3 in the organization for a good team and this kid is the #28th prospect for the Rockies. Last time I checked, that Math doesn’t work out so well. Gimme lots of walks, the Rockies middle relief and welcome back Corey Seager, lets do some work.
Mariners (France, Kelenic) … Not sure what is up with Atlanta’s bullpen right now, but 65% humidity and a Dewpoint of 60 today won’t help matters much either. Ball should fly in Truist, advantage road team where we know we get that 9th inning AB no matter what and facing a struggling staff overall.
TIER THREE
Houston (Bregman, Altuve, Abreu)
Toronto (Chapman, Varsho)
Oakland (Laureano)
CATCHER
- Adley Rutschman
- Salvador Perez
- Jonah Heim
FIRST BASE
- Ryan Mountcastle … Some people need BvP to think they know whats gonna happen. I just need to see a damn good power hitting RHH against Yusei Kikuchi. It’s not rocket science.
- Nathaniel Lowe
- Ty France
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve … First game back and first game of 2023 and the kid gets a 6’4 lefty who is either walking 5 a game or giving up a HR every 3 innings. Nobody runs better than the little man.
- Mookie Betts
- Donovan Solano
THIRD BASE
- Matt Chapman
- Patrick Wisdom
- Alex Bregman
SHORTSTOP
All the narratives here witih Lindor and Xander both facing their former teams.
- Corey Seager
- Dansby Swanson
- Francisco Lindor
- Xander Bogaerts
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Kyle Schwarber … June is coming, and so too is his heater.
- Austin Hays … Speaking of June, Yusei Kikuchi I say
- Daulton Varsheaux
- Staring Marte … Nobody on the Mets has been a slower starter than Marte this season, but the recent surge with the young call ups and Alonso getting hot should roll over to Marte going on an insane 10 day stretch before pulling a muscle and hitting the IL for 2 months. Good spot for that to start tonight with Quantrill allowing a +500 SLG to RHH
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Adolis Garcia
- Jarred Kelenic
- Kris Bryant
OUTFIELD – Value
- Ramon Laureano
- Michael Conforto
- Ryan Mountcastle – 1B – Baltimore Orioles – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Austin Hays – OF – Orioles
- Jose Altuve – 2B – Astros
- Daulton Varsho – OF – Blue Jays
- Ramon Laureano – OF – Athletics
- Dansby Swanson – SS – Cubs
- Salvy – C – Royals
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- BONUS ………………. Kris Bryant – OF – Rockies
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)
K Prop Parlay:
- Anthony DeSclafani over 4.5 strikeouts (-105)
- Yusei Kikuchi under 5.5 strikeouts
Over 0.5 Hits Parlay:
- Alex Bregman
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Kris Bryant
Best Dog ML:
- Orioles +134
- Mariners +128
Best Total:
- Orioles/Jays over 9.5
- Mariners/Braves over 9
- Rangers over 5.5 runs and Rangers Win (+120)