Most of the games today are in the 4PM window which features a Nine (Minus the PPD games) game slate of games for FD and DK. There is a 7PM Saturday night slate and yes I will most likely do a quick write-up on that one.
WEATHER
Guardians at Mets – Already PPD
Tigers at Nationals – LOL. Nats and rain delays. Have fun.
Cubs at Phillies – Rain arriving late, I think they’ll cruise along just fine.
TOP ARM
Aaron Nola (DK: $9200, FD: $9200) … Looked at the slate late last night to see who was pitching and immediately did this type of reaction while sitting in my chair watching the Knights/Stars NHL game.
Except I don’t smoke… But anyways, the point here is I was all on Nola for this game. The Cubs are gonna look like a hot team coming in here and that’s all fine and good but Nola is going to get his K rates WAY up in this game. To both LH and RH he is below 20% on the season, but all the Cubs excepet for Hoener are 25%+ vs his pitch type mix and overall they are hitting LH better than RHP of late. Gimme the first real Nola gem game of 2023 & he is coming off an extra days rest too.
SP2 OPTIONS
Mitch Keller (DK: $9300, FD: Play Nola) … You all keep waiting for the Keller shoe to fall off game, and yeah he could have that one rough inning like Gallen did in this series last night but really nothing we have seen from Keller should suggest he is not having the ‘Dylan Cease’ breakout this season. Lefties are whiffing 32% and only hitting .200 against him, the walks are way down and the confidence is way up.
Guys I considered
Jon Gray … He is the best pivot, the Rockies will strikeout plenty to keep him in the mix
Braxon Garrett / Logan Webb … If you want these two I would pair them together and play for a low scoring 2-1 type game. Garrett can’t go deep enough to win the slate and Webb wont beat Nola IMO.
Brandon Pfaadt … We’re just getting a good discount here, but 3 bats (McCutchen, Reynolds and Suwinski) are likely give him trouble, so even at his cheap price I don’t know that it’s worth it.
FAVORITE STACK
Astros (Altuve, Bregman, Abreu) … Athletics SP JP Sears has been dreadful away from Oakland and seems to be pitching with a fear of giving up home runs. Opponents are barreling him up and getting the ball into the air quite often this season and his approach vs LHH hasn’t been very consistent either so I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tucker/Yordan get some walks and the Astros to have runners on every single inning. This really has the feels of a 12-4 Astros win with some position player pitching for Oakland.
Happy Jose Abreu day for those who have been waiting, a 2-1 change-up into the Crawford boxes.
SECONDARY STACKS
Phillies (Harper, Schwarber, Marsh) … Rain coming in and Nola pitching a gem could push this offense along to have a quiet day, but I would be mistaken to not look at going after Jameson Taillon.
TIER THREE TEAMS
Pittsburgh, Oakland, Detroit
I would be limited on exposure to these spots (3 man stack max), but they are all pretty cheap and should be able to post 4-5 runs from their core hitters.
CATCHER
- Eric Haase
- JT Realmuto
- Kyle Highashioka
FIRST BASE
- Jose Abreu
- Anthony Rizzo
- Rowdy Tellez
SECOND BASE
- Jose Altuve
- Marcus Semien
- Gleyber Torres
THIRD BASE
- Alex Bregman
- Casey Schmitt
- KeBryan Hayes
SHORTSTOP
Dont think there is a must own at this position, so Matt McLain at home and cheap near the top of order is where we save $
- Matt McLain
- Javier Baez
- Corey Seager
OUTFIELD – Mt. Rushmore
- Harper, Bryce
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jack Suwinski
- Mitch Haniger
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryan Reynolds
- Andrew McCutchen
OUTFIELD – Value
- Ramon Laureano
- Matt Vierling
- JJ Bleday
- Jack Suwinski – OF – Pirates – Chairman of The Dongers Club
- Alex Bregman – 3B – Astros
- Ramon Laureano – OF – Athletics
- Bryce Harper – OF – Phillies
- Marcus Semien – 2B – Rangers
- Matt McLain – SS – Reds
- JT Realmuto – C – Phillies
- Jose Abreu – 1B – Astros
- BONUS ………………………….. Yordan Alvarez – OF – Astros
TODAY’S TOP BET(s)
K Prop Parlay:
- JP Sears under 4.5 strikeouts
- Aaron Nola over
Over 0.5 Hits Parlay:
- Schwarber over 0.5 (-160)
- Bregman over 0.5 (-225)
- Parades over 0.5 (-185)
- Suwinski over 1.5 H/RBI/RUN (-110)
Best Dog ML:
- Brewers +180
Best Total:
- Oakland/Houston over 8.5