Wells Fargo Championship
We are back to the Elevated Event set up this week! The player pool is full of things that don’t float on top of the water and our 2nd Major of the year is two weeks away. I’m not sure how you all did last week because hardly anyone tells me. That either means no one is playing or my picks are sucking worse that a AARP hooker with a garden hose!
I’m focused this week because (1) I like this event and (2) I have a $2,222 entry in the MEGA Millionaire. And, hell no, I didn’t pay that. I won a ticket. Even though I write an article and play/win at a decent clip, I still have a hard time putting out more than $200 for a single-entry contest. My brain (at least the part controlling my wallet) just doesn’t work that way.
This is a course that allows a bomber to shine, but it also doesn’t exclude the non-bombers. Guys that are good with approaches from 175 yards and out can also compete. The fairways are narrow so the big hitters can’t go too far off the reservation because the rough is long and there are plenty of trees and water to mess with them.
This will be a week where you will sit back and say – “Shit!! That lineup is loaded!” The pricing is very similar to Majors with such an exceptional field. However, 7 times out of 10, by Friday evening, you’ll be saying “what the Hell was (fill in $9k and above guy missing the cut) doing on the back nine!?”
HERE…WE…GO!!
Highlights: Quail Hollow
- Par 71 – 7,538 yards
- Narrow fairways, long rough, trees and water – Huh, a golf course!
- Speedy Bermuda Greens (12 on the stimpmeter) – although, I’ll be honest, I never really understood the stimpmeter. It’s physics and, other than The Big Bang Theory, I’ve never really cared much about it.
For statistical analysis:
- Shots Gained Off-the-Tee (SG: OTT)
- Shots Gained Approach – Specifically 175-200+ yards (SG: APP175-200+)
NOTE: All pricing is based on DraftKings
** are my favorites in each category – could be pricing or the fact I think they play best.
Top 10 in Field (last 16 rounds)
| SG: OTT | SG: APP 175-200+ |
| Patrick Cantlay ($10,500) | Rory McIlroy ($11,100) |
| Hayden Buckley ($7,400) | Collin Morikawa ($9,800) |
| Sungjae Im ($9,100) | Cameron Davis ($7,500) |
| Viktor Hovland ($9,200) | Austin Smotherman ($6,600) |
| Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500) | Kurt Kitayama ($7,200) |
| Luke List ($6,900) | Tony Finau ($10,200) |
| Carson Young ($6,100) (NOT Cam!) | Gary Woodland ($7,600) |
| Gary Woodland ($7,600) | Keegan Bradley ($7,700) |
| Rory McIlroy ($11,100) | Austin Eckroat ($6,500) |
| Cameron Young ($8,700) (NOT Carson!) | Nick Hardy ($7,100) |
On the model I use, I set it to rank guys based solely on SG: Approach 175-200 (50%) and SG: Approach 200+ (50%). Not a perfect thing, but I wanted to see how many of those guys were on the SG: OTT list.
One thing I did notice looking further down the list, is that there are more guys in the $7,000 – $8,000 range than in the $9K and above range. Not sure what to make of that other than they don’t hit the ball as far or their around-the-green game keeps them from scoring well enough to garner a larger price tag.
If I use the same model and put in SG:OTT (40%); 175-200 (30%); and 200+ (30%), we get:
| 1. Rory McIlroy | 6. Brent Grant |
| 2. Collin Morikawa | 7. Gary Woodland |
| 3. Tony Finau | 8. Shane Lowry |
| 4. Cameron Davis | 9. Keegan Bradley |
| 5. Austin Eckroat | 10. Patrick Cantlay |
So, there it is! Clear as mud! Do with it what you wish! As I’ve said, I’m more of a gut, current form, course history kind of guy!
$9,000 and Above
My favorites are:
Course History: Rory McIlroy ($11,100)…by a Mile! He’s struggled a little recently, but his history is: Win-T8-T16-T4-Win-T8-T10-T2-Cut-Win!
Viktor Hovland ($9,200) – only one appearance but it was T3.
Gut/My Favorites: Patrick Cantlay ($10,500); Viktor Hovland ($9,200); Sungjae Im ($9,100); and Matthew Fitzpatrick ($9,300)
I love Rory this week, but the fact that he’s missed the cut at The Players and The Masters coming in, the price is high. Still you can’t ignore the Course History. Xander Schauffele ($10,700) is also a good play with two made cuts in two attempts including a T14 last year.
There is really no one in this tier playing so poorly right now that I wouldn’t put them in a lineup. It all comes down to price. If I had to go with one above $10K and one below $10K, I’d go Patrick Cantlay ($10,500) and Viktor Hovland ($9,200).
FYI – Joe LaCava (Tiger’s Caddie) has now signed on to caddy with Cantlay. Now, this could cut either way this week but I’m leaning towards LaCava being good for a player whose game is already one of the best out there.
$7,500 to $8,900 (THE POCKET!)
Look, assuming someone above doesn’t win it, this is the area where you can differentiate AND get several Top 10s – and, frankly, a win as well.
- Rickie Fowler ($8,800)** – I think Rickie is back. His Course History here only pales in comparison – slightly, OK maybe a little more than slightly – to Rory’s. Cut-T4-T21-T4-DNP-T38-T73-Win-T16-6th. I’m really not concerned about the MC last year because…well…Rickie sucked last year! His current form now says otherwise – and loudly!
- Cameron Young ($8,700)** – No history, but I think his power and finesse game plays well here.
- Justin Thomas ($8,900)** – Under $9K, LMAO!!! Yes sir! Twice if they’d let me.
- Tommy Fleetwood ($8,000)
Because this Tier is “the shit”, here are a couple of others:
- Current Form: Sam Burns ($8,600); Sahith Theegala ($8,200); Tyrrell Hatton ($8,500)
- Course History: Brain Harman ($8,000); Keith Mitchell ($7,800); Gary Woodland ($7,600)
$7,000 to $7,400
- Emiliano Grillo ($7,400)** – T5 & T7 in last two events this year and T14 & T9 in his last two times at Quail Hollow.
- Byeong Hun (Ben) An ($7,100)** – his history at Quail isn’t good, but his current form is “How to Make a Cut in 36 Holes”!
- Joel Dahmen ($7,300)
- Akshay Bhatia ($7,000) – after last week, I’ll take a shot on him at this price any time. Just making the cut will exceed the value.
Under $7,000
“Scrub Zone” –
- Alejandro Tosti ($6,500) – Look. A Top 10 last week got him in, but he is playing great and hasn’t finished lower than 25th on the Korn Ferry Tour since March.
- Harry Hall ($6,700)
- Eric Cole ($6,800)
- Will Gordon ($6,900)
LONGSHOT
Alejandro Tosti ($6,500)
Screw it guys! I know I picked him above too, but he was my longshot last week and I’m taking him again! Korn Ferry…Schmorn Ferry! If, by some miracle, he gets another Top 10 this week, I hopefully win the MEGA Millionaire too! I’m not sure yet, but I may play him there. With only 1,011 entries, it may not be that important to differentiate, but that price should allow me to get 2 or 3 of the $9K plus guys – it’s picking the right ones that’s the problem.
Ask questions on Discord if you have them. Make sure to tag me so I don’t miss it!
GOOD LUCK!!